VZCZCXRO6243
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0257/01 0610702
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 020702Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1958
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MCC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000257 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/EPS, AF/RSA, DRL 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM PHUM SG
SUBJECT: SENEGAL: CONTENTIOUS LOCAL ELECTIONS IN THE CASAMANCE 
 
DAKAR 00000257  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  In the run-up to the March 2009 local elections, 
POL Assistant met with authorities and NGO representatives in 
Ziguinchor to discuss local politics and the state of the peace 
process between the government and the Movement of Democratic Forces 
in the Casamance (MFDC).  The upcoming local elections are seen by 
many as a good opportunity to vote for those candidates whom they 
hope can end a 26-year long conflict and bring peace and prosperity 
to the region.  End summary. 
 
MASS CONFUSION AND LEGAL QUESTIONS 
---------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) January 20, 2009 was the last day for all political parties 
to send their lists to the local government in order to be eligible 
to compete in the March 22 election.  However, in some areas the 
ruling Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) did not respect this 
injunction and some of their lists were registered well after the 
23:00 deadline had passed.  In addition, the creation of three new 
regions, one of which is the new region of Sedhiou, which used to be 
part of the Ziguinchor region, has been the source of much confusion 
and frustration as many candidates complained that they did not know 
or were not made aware of where they needed to register for the 
elections.  Furthermore, the region is rife with rumors that 
foreigners from Guinea-Bissau and Guinea-Conakry received Senegalese 
birth certificates that in turn allow them to register to vote. 
 
THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE SOUTH 
------------------------------------ 
¶3. (SBU) Currently, the three major parties vying for power in the 
Casamance are: the PDS with its leaders Abdoulaye Balde, the 
Secretary-General of the Presidency, Innocence Ntab, the Minister of 
Labor and Christian Diatta, the Minister of Bio Fuels, Renewable 
Energy and Scientific Research; the "Taku Defar Senegal" coalition 
lead by incumbent Ziguinchor Mayor Robert Sagna, and the Benno 
Siggil Senegaal coalition of opposition parties. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Contacts say that Sagna has the advantage of having very 
good relations with "Les Notables" (elderly people with influence). 
They underlined his reputation as a person who runs his affairs 
discretely without much fanfare and who makes sure to attend 
familial ceremonies or send his representatives.  Sagna is a 
Catholic and he belongs to the "Joola" ethnic group, which makes up 
about 60 percent of the local population.  Contacts said, "Should 
the PDS list be perceived to be weak they could easily lose the 
elections to Sagna."  The PDS list is headed by Abdoulaye Balde, a 
close ally of Presidential scion, Karim Wade.  According to the same 
contacts, Balde seems to have the support of the youth and women. 
Balde has also brought a sizeable war chest with which to "buy" the 
sympathies of the population and he has the backing of the state. 
However, he will face some challenges to overcome the fact that he 
is from the Peul ethnic group associated with Kolda rather than 
Ziguinchor and he is said to be a rather uncharismatic and not very 
eloquent speaker. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, in the district of Oussouye, the PDS may have 
some problems after Minister Diatta selected unfamiliar people to 
run on the party's list, leaving out charismatic and popular local 
candidates such as Ms. Emily Diatta, a well known parliamentarian, 
and Demba Diagne, the President of the Regional Council.  According 
to a senior PDS Councilor, President Wade's promotion of Innocence 
NTap to Minister of State has been a source of contention locally. 
Currently Balde and NTap are in a battle royal to control the PDS in 
the region.  Many PDS members acknowledged that their party could 
lose the elections if Balde and Ntap do not set aside their 
differences, "Our party must overcome individual interests to focus 
more on unity to bring peace back to the region.  If not, the 
opposition will win in Ziguinchor." 
 
PEACE PROCESS TALKS ARE UNDERWAY 
-------------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Several contacts confirmed that the peace talks are still 
underway with the assistance of political parties, local and 
military authorities, opinion and religious leaders, NGOs, and 
representatives of the MFDC.  However, a perception that the 
government has distributed more money to some rebels than to others 
has raised tensions among the different guerilla groups.  Contacts 
noted that the death of Abb Diamacoune (the former MFDC liaison) 
weakened the MFDC and led to the creation of five new political 
groups and three military factions who are in a permanent state of 
conflict over the control of the MFDC's guerillas in the bush. 
Currently, the MFDC's military branch includes a northern one led by 
Salif Sadio and southern one led by Atou Badiate. 
 
¶7. (SBU) A potential Self Help grantee who lives in the bush and who 
has firsthand experience with the conflict confirmed that the 
government does not want to use the army against the rebels, even 
though they have the means and the capabilities to do so if so 
ordered.  He added that, if the government implements a 
comprehensive demining plan, such as the one that Handicap 
International is carrying out, the rebels would be more than willing 
 
DAKAR 00000257  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
to return to their fields and grow crops instead of trying to make 
money by attacking bush taxis and robbing passengers, "at this 
point, it's about money and opportunity.  If the government can 
create jobs and build a solid infrastructure, then the rebels would 
be willing to listen." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶8. (SBU) Most political observers point to Ziguinchor as a city to 
watch during the election as two heavyweights are pitted against one 
another.  Internal divisions within the PDS and a strong and popular 
incumbent make it difficult to predict who will be the next Mayor of 
this pivotal city, but whoever he is, he will have some major 
challenges to rehabilitate this conflict-weary region. 
BERNICAT