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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 000372 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2033 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR SOCI KDEM RS KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN:  PRESIDENT ADVISOR YERTYSBAYEV 
SUPPORTS EARLY ELECTIONS, DIALOGUE WITH OPPOSITION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In the course of a very frank conversation 
on February 26, Presidential Advisor Yermukhamet Yertysbayev 
told the Ambassador that he supports early parliamentary 
elections and establishing a dialogue between the government 
and opposition.  He explained he favors a two-party system 
for Kazakhstan, with one pro-Nazarbayev party and a second 
opposed to the government.  Yertysbayev described ousted BTA 
bank chairman Mukhtar Ablyazov as a "threat to the system" 
because of his vast financial resources and willingness to 
use them to fund the opposition.  He argued that it is 
critical President Nazarbayev serve out his full term, 
through the end of 2012, because only Nazarbayev can keep a 
lid on the country's problems.  Yertysbayev was uncertain 
whether Nazarbayev will run again in 2012, but expressed 
doubts that two frequently named contenders -- Senate 
Chairman Tokayev and Astana Akim (Mayor) Tasmagambetov -- 
have the leadership qualities necessary to succeed him. 
Yertysbayev said he personally favors further political 
liberalization, but admitted that the economy is Nazarbayev's 
top priority, with political reform in "tenth place."  He 
acknowledged that international opinion and pressure, 
expressed both publicly and in private, has an influence on 
the Kazakhstani government.  He agreed Kazakhstan might be 
able to play a role in improving U.S.-Russian relations. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
SUPPORTS EARLY ELECTIONS, DIALOGUE WITH OPPOSITION 
 
¶2. (C) During a February 26 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Presidential Advisor Yermukhamet Yertysbayev said he remains 
a supporter of early parliamentary elections.  He explained 
that he has not only called for early elections in his public 
comments to the media, but has also expressed the same 
opinion to President Nazarbayev in private.   According to 
Yertysbayev, it is critical to establish a dialogue between 
the government and opposition -- and the dialogue needs to 
take place in a multi-party parliament, "not outside on the 
public squares."  Yertysbayev pointed to Ukraine as a model. 
"We can criticize the Ukrainians for many things, but they 
have managed to create a dialogue within their parliament 
among opposing political forces," he said.  "If something 
were to happen today to President Nazarbayev such that he 
became incapable of running the country -- for example, if he 
were to fall seriously ill -- Kazakhstan would face a 
complete crisis, because there is no mechanism for opposing 
forces to come together and reach comprise," he maintained. 
 
¶3. (C) In Yertysbayev's opinion, the ideal time for early 
elections would be as soon as possible -- in March or April 
-- because the opposition is still weak and divided, which 
should ensure that the ruling Nur Otan party wins.  If 
elections were held later in the year, Nur Otan might 
actually lose, he claimed.  The opposition has united in the 
past and could do so again.  "The most dangerous situation 
for the government would be if they all came together behind 
one leader, it doesn't even matter which one," he said. 
 
FAVORS TWO-PARTY SYSTEM 
 
¶4. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the government would even 
permit a strong opposition to emerge.  Yertysbayev responded 
that the government would, in fact, restrict the opposition's 
activities as much as possible, including limiting the 
opposition's access to the broadcast media, denying 
opposition requests to hold rallies, and bribing opposition 
leaders to divide them.  He explained, "I don't approve of 
this approach.  I am for a two-party system -- one party 
would be pro-Nazarbayev, and other party would be opposed to 
the government.  The parties would be something like the 
Democrats and Republicans.  While this model would be 
somewhat artificial in Kazakhstan, it would be beneficial and 
allow for effective control to be exerted over the 
government."  "Unfortunately," he continued, "the government 
 
ASTANA 00000372  002 OF 004 
 
 
views the opposition as enemies, not as opponents," and does 
not want to provide a level playing field for political 
competition.  "Just imagine if Obama hadn't had access to the 
media, only McCain," he added. 
 
DESCRIBES ALGA, ABLYAZOV AS A "THREAT TO THE SYSTEM" 
 
¶5. (C) The Ambassador asked Yertysbayev which political 
parties he considers to be relevant.  Yertysbayev responded 
that there are only three serious parties -- Nur Otan, Azat, 
and the unregistered Alga party, "the others just exist on 
paper."  (NOTE:  With this response, he was essentially 
dismissing the relevance of the National Social Democratic 
Party of Zharmakhan Tuyakbay -- who was the united opposition 
candidate in the 2005 presidential elections -- and 
Serikbolsyn Abdildin's Communist Party.  END NOTE.)  The 
Ambassador asked why the government won't register Alga. 
Yertysbayev explained that this is because ousted BTA Bank 
Chairman Mukhtar Ablyazov is behind the party.  According to 
Yertysbayev, "Ablyazov promised Nazarbayev to stay out of 
politics, but he has been financing Alga and the opposition 
newspaper 'Respublika' and will continue to do so, even if he 
doesn't return to Kazakhstan.  Ablyazov took $9.5 billion 
from BTA and represents a danger to the whole system.   Alga 
has 40,000 to 50,000 members, or maybe even 100,000 members, 
and there is a possibility that Ablyazov will run for 
office." 
 
SAYS IT'S CRITICAL NAZARBAYEV SERVE OUT HIS TERM 
 
¶6. (C)  Kazakhstan, Yertysbayev continued, has a lot of 
problems -- including the potential for separatism in the 
heavily ethnic Russian North and oil-rich West, potential 
inter-ethnic conflicts, social tensions between rich and 
poor, and "territorial claims."  Only Nazarbayev can keep a 
lid on these problems, which is why it's critical that he 
remain in power for his full term, through the end of 2012, 
he argued.  "If he were to stumble now, no one knows what 
would happen in the country," Yertysbayev maintained, "but 
we'll see what happens in 2012, whether he'll run again or 
anoint a successor."  The Ambassador asked which of those two 
options Nazarbayev would more likely choose in 2012. 
Yertysbayev responded, "If there were a strong personality 
from the younger generation, he would step aside, but for 
now, there isn't.  It's very difficult to make a prognosis 
three years out.  Look, we're confronting a financial crisis 
that no one predicted the year before it began." 
 
EXPRESSES DOUBTS ABOUT TOKAYEV, TASMAGAMBETOV 
 
¶7. (C) The Ambassador then asked whom Yertysbayev considers 
the most likely contenders to succeed Nazarbayev.  "I could 
mention several names," Yertysbayev responded, "but this 
would just be my subjective opinion."  He explained that 
usually two individuals are named as possibilities -- Senate 
Chairman Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev and Astana Akim (Mayor) 
Imangali Tasmagambetov.  However, according to Yertybayev, 
"Tokayev does not have the charisma or character that 
Nazarbayev has, which is necessary to lead the country."  In 
the case of Tasmagambetov, "people view him quite negatively 
because of his alleged corruption and the houses (illegally 
constructed by poor migrants) that he bulldozed while Almaty 
Akim.  He also doesn't have the right character for a leader. 
 We shouldn't forget that a successor is going to have to run 
in an election and win against an opposition candidate," 
Yertysbayev argued.  The Ambassador asked about the prospects 
for Nazarbayev's son-in-law Timur Kulibayev to emerge as the 
successor.  "Anyone can run, but the question is, can that 
person win?," he reiterated, "If there is a fair election 
like in the United States, an unexpected person might even 
emerge, though if the election is tightly controlled by the 
government, the Nur Otan candidate will have a big advantage. 
 That's what makes the outcome difficult to predict." 
 
TALKS BLUNTLY ABOUT NAZARBAYEV 
 
ASTANA 00000372  003 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶8. (C) Yertysbayev characterized the recent amendments to 
Kazakhstan's election, political party, and media legislation 
as "insignificant," and said he is a proponent of further 
liberalization of these laws.  However, he explained, "I 
don't make policy.  I'm just a humble advisor with a small 
office in the Presidential Administration.  Sometimes 
Presidential Nazarbayev listens to my recommendations, but 
political reform is in tenth place on his list of priorities; 
the first priority for him is the economy -- the financial 
crisis, unemployment, the banking sector's problems, etc." 
 
¶9. (C) Yerysbayev said bluntly about Nazarbayev, "He was 13 
years old when Stalin died, and he cried when it happened. 
He was already 51 years old when the Soviet Union collapsed. 
So he's a product of the Soviet system.  That's why he's 
likes to maintain such tight control."  However, Yertysbayev 
was quick to add, "But the political culture of the country 
is very low, and the tight control has been justified. 
There's been no ethnic conflict, we've had strong economic 
growth, and we have good relations with the United States, 
Russia, and China.  The plusses (of Nazarbayev) far outweigh 
the minuses."  He also said Nazarbayev had recently told him 
that despite the financial crisis, the United States will 
remain the world's strongest power for the next 50 years, and 
thus it is important for all the Central Asian countries to 
continue developing close relations with the United States. 
 
ACKNOWLEDGES INTERNATIONAL OPINION MAKES A DIFFERENCE 
 
¶10. (C) The Ambassador asked whether international opinion 
really does have an influence on the Kazakhstani government, 
and if so, what is more effective, private criticism or 
public criticism.  Yertysbayev responded that international 
opinion is, in fact, taken into account by the government -- 
and played a role in the recent Constitutional Council ruling 
that declared the proposed religion law to be 
unconstitutional.  He explained that both private and public 
pressure works, and the most effective appeals are those made 
directly to Nazarbayev because he's in charge of both 
domestic and foreign policy.  After Nazarbayev, the place to 
direct pressure is toward the Parliament and Cabinet. "The 
West has influenced us in a good way on a number of 
occasions.  We're a young country and sometimes we don't 
understand our international commitments, and how to behave 
in international organizations like the United Nations and 
OSCE.  We have to be told where we fall short."  Yertysbayev 
praised USAID, the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and 
other U.S. organizations for their roles in promoting 
democracy and human rights in Kazakhstan. 
 
EXPRESSES DOUBTS ABOUT RUSSIAN INTENTIONS 
 
¶11. (C) The Ambassador asked whether Kazakhstan might be able 
to play a role in fostering better relations between the 
United States and Russia.  Yertysbayev agreed that Kazakhstan 
should be able to assist, since it has good relations with 
both countries.  If Kazakhstan undertook such an initiative, 
Russia would appreciate it and respond positively, he 
contended.  Yertysbayev nevertheless cautioned,  "I believe 
that President Obama and Secretary Clinton want better 
relations with Russia, but I don't know what the Russians 
want.  As (Russian opposition leader Gary) Kasparov has said, 
'Putin wants to rule like Stalin, but live like (Russian 
billionaire Roman) Abramovich' -- which is a bad for 
democracy and human rights in Russia." 
 
¶12. (C) COMMENT:  Yertysbayev certainly lived up to his 
reputation.  The Ambassador has had a number of frank 
conversations with other senior government officials, but 
none as free-wheeling as this one with Yertysbayev.  It 
impresses us that President Nazarbayev has such a 
liberal-thinking iconoclast as a top advisor, and indicates 
that Nazarbayev does not want to live in an echo chamber 
surrounded solely by sycophants, but instead remains open to 
 
ASTANA 00000372  004 OF 004 
 
 
hearing views that likely diverge from his own.  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND