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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 000217 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/RSA, AF/W 
PARIS FOR DEA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL XY PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU FEBRUARY 2009 SCENESETTER 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Guinea-Bissau remains at risk of becoming a 
narco-state.  It has become one of the transit points of choice for 
South American drug traffickers.  Its extreme poverty and lack of 
law enforcement and judicial capacity make it particularly 
attractive and vulnerable to infiltration and exploitation by 
narcotics traffickers and other forms of organized crime and, 
potentially, terrorists.  In addition, the country is in urgent need 
of security sector and public sector reform.  The armed forces, 
which are dominated by one ethnic group, former independence 
fighters, and participants in the 1998 civil war, will need to be 
completely restructured.  The public sector is too large and the 
government is unable to pay civil servant salaries.  The recently 
elected Prime Minister seems committed to tackling these issues with 
the support of the international community.  However, he is at odds 
with the President and members of his own party in the National 
Assembly.  Although his party dominates the legislature, there is a 
risk that the government could fall in the near term.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Fragile Democracy at Risk of Becoming a Narco-State 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Your visit to Guinea-Bissau comes at a critical time.  The 
country is struggling to consolidate its fragile progress toward 
full democratization, reform its security and law enforcement 
sectors, as well as the rest of the public sector, and combat the 
growing influence of narcotics traffickers.  Current President Joao 
Bernardo "Nino" Vieira returned to power in a peaceful election in 
2005 and Guinea-Bissau took another tentative step toward political 
stability by holding successful, free, and fair legislative 
elections in November 2008, which led to the re-installation of 
Carlos Gomes Junior as Prime Minister in January 2009.  The 
political party of Gomes, or "Cadogo" as he is known, has a majority 
of 67 in the 100-member National Assembly.  As a result, Gomes, who 
has a strong counter-narcotics and human rights background, has a 
mandate to exercise the necessary political will to lead the 
government's most serious counter-narcotics and security sector 
reform efforts to date.  Over the past four years, the United States 
has supported President Vieira's episodic attempts to strengthen 
democracy. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Guinea-Bissau's relatively short history has been 
conflict-ridden and characterized by coups, but it successfully 
elected a new President in 2005 and changed governments in April 
2007 via a constitutional and peaceful vote in the National 
Assembly.  Led by former Prime Minister Martinho N'Dafa Cabi, the 
government improved public finance accountability, restarted IMF 
post-conflict assistance loans, and achieved modest success reaching 
out to the international community for help in fighting drug 
trafficking.  Unfortunately, political struggles within the National 
Assembly distracted elected officials from overseeing government 
expenditures and producing legislation to tackle the difficult 
problems facing Guinea-Bissau, in particular the reform of its 
security and public sectors.  In a country with no industry and few 
business opportunities, most elites, like the rest of the 
population, see government as the only viable employer.  This 
problem is compounded by an outsized military composed 
disproportionately of officers who are also veterans of the 1998 
civil war.  The result is a political process intensely focused on 
self-interest and survival rather than political, social, or 
economic development, making government and military officials 
particularly vulnerable to the temptation of narcotics-fueled 
corruption. 
 
Newly-Elected Prime Minister off to Shaky Start 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) While Guinea-Bissau continued to make considerable, if 
halting, progress in consolidating its democracy with the successful 
2008 legislative elections, which Embassy Dakar officers observed as 
a part of the UN's official observer mission, Prime Minister Gomes 
does not have as strong a mandate as election results suggest.  The 
Prime Minister and President dislike each other intensely and have 
been at loggerheads in the past regarding the proper role (and 
authority) of their respective offices.  Gomes is also feuding with 
members of his own party in the National Assembly as a result of 
personal grievances and complaints about cabinet and government 
appointments.  As a result, the Prime Minister has been forced to 
rely on the opposition to elect his candidate for chair of the 
National Assembly and the government's program, leading many to 
speculate that the government might fall in the near future in spite 
of the ruling party's overwhelming majority in the National 
Assembly. 
 
 
DAKAR 00000217  002 OF 003 
 
 
President and Military Chief of Staff at Odds 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In addition to his conflict with the Prime Minister, the 
relationship between President Vieira and Armed Forces Chief of 
Staff General Tagme Na Wai is another source of political 
instability in Guinea-Bissau.  The two were on opposite sides during 
the civil war and have a troubled personal relationship, although it 
was Na Wai who facilitated the return of Vieira from his exile in 
Guinea in 2005.  Following the legislative elections, a group of 
dissidents in the military attempted to assassinate the President. 
While it is still unclear who is responsible (most point the finger 
toward former President Kumba Yala or former Naval Chief of Staff 
Jose Americo Bubo Na Tchute, who has been heavily implicated in 
narcotics trafficking) it is widely believed that Na Wai's efforts 
to defend the President were lackluster.  This led President Vieira 
to create a presidential security detail of loyalists under the 
auspices of the Ministry of the Interior.  However, Na Wai's 
subsequent objection resulted in the force being disbanded almost 
immediately. 
 
Geography Plus Poverty Makes Guinea-Bissau a Traffickers' Paradise 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Guinea-Bissau is one of the poorest, least-developed 
countries in the world.  It ranked 171 out of 177 countries in the 
2008 Human Development Index and has a virtually unpoliced 
archipelago consisting of more than 90 islands.  This unprotected 
coastline and unregulated Exclusive Economic Zone is a haven for 
narcotics trafficking, due to an utter lack of law enforcement and 
security capacity in terms of both human and material resources. 
The economy has never recovered from the effects of the civil war, 
leaving the government unable to pay public sector salaries.  As a 
result, the enormous profitability of facilitating the transit of 
cocaine from Latin America to Europe continues to corrupt political 
and security officials and to undermine the rule of law.  This puts 
the country at great risk of becoming a narco-state and by mid-2008 
Guinea-Bissau appeared to be a destination of choice for drug 
traffickers, even as they have expanded their activities in other 
West African countries.  An estimated 800-1000 kilograms of cocaine 
are flown every night into Guinea Bissau and an unspecified quantity 
is increasingly making its way by sea from Latin America.  Many of 
the government and military's most senior officials are now 
suspected of orchestrating or facilitating trafficking, while 
low-level officials are particularly susceptible to bribes, as most 
government workers go months at a time without receiving salaries. 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Although the country enjoyed a good harvest for the vital 
cashew crop in 2008, significant challenges in all sectors inhibit 
the progress and stability Guinea-Bissau needs to capitalize on its 
agricultural and natural resources potential.  Power shortages and 
crumbling infrastructure cripple economic output and make life 
difficult for the population of 1.6 million.  Ongoing domestic 
instability and poor governance have further eroded already 
debilitated education and health care systems. 
 
Vulnerable to AQIM 
------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) 
terrorists also transit the country regularly.  In spite of the fact 
that the GOGB arrested AQIM elements who sought temporary safe haven 
in Bissau in January 2008, such activity confirms that the country 
is vulnerable to terrorist influence.   This development is all the 
more troubling, given the significantly increased activity of AQIM 
in the region.  To help achieve stability in West Africa, a 
sustained democratic transition in Guinea-Bissau is a critical step 
toward pushing the traffickers out of the country and denying 
terrorists a possible base of operations. 
 
Security Sector Reform Linked to CN and Political Stability 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The National Assembly has adopted a security sector reform 
(SSR) strategy.  The EU is leading an effort to provide technical 
assistance in support of this strategy.  SSR is key to both 
counternarcotics efforts -- military and civilian law enforcement 
officials are implicated in trafficking -- and establishing 
long-term political stability -- the vast majority of officers and 
soldiers are members of the Balanta ethnic group and regard SSR as a 
way of taking away their political power.  Guinea-Bissau has nine 
law enforcement agencies; the national SSR strategy calls for 
 
DAKAR 00000217  003 OF 003 
 
 
reducing that number to four.  Prime Minister Gomes has appointed 
the former Minister of Justice, Carmelita Pires, as the government 
coordinator for both SSR and CN.  Gomes will chair inter-ministerial 
committees providing oversight for both issues. 
 
Demining and Explosive Ordinance Removal 
------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Mines and unexploded ordnance (UXO) continue to pose a 
humanitarian and socio-economic threat to local and regional 
populations.  A landmine impact survey conducted in 2006 identified 
31 out of 32 sectors of the country still have mine and other 
explosive remnants of war (ERW) contamination.  This contamination 
poses not only a physical threat, it prevents subsistence farming 
and cash crop harvesting in affected areas and planned 
rehabilitation projects are impeded by lack of access to 
conflict-affected communities.  Continued U.S. support through NGOs 
will ensure our investment in building a national demining and 
Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) capability realizes the objectives 
of returning land to productive use and improving stability and 
safety through the destruction of excess and unstable military 
munitions and weapons.  With modest support to sustain the capacity 
developed so far, Guinea-Bissau could become free of ERW within five 
years. 
 
Economic Growth Is Long-Term CN Strategy 
---------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The best counter-narcotics strategy in Guinea-Bissau will 
ultimately fail if it is not supported by an aggressive effort to 
improve the incomes of Bissau-Guineans.  Poor economic policies on 
cashew exports that hurt revenues in 2006 were reversed in 2007 and 
¶2008.  This reform, along with a combination of better rains and 
higher commodity prices, helped the weak economy rebound slightly. 
Petroleum exploration continues offshore, but exploitation of a 
commercially viable source is years away.  Foreign investors from 
China, Angola, Senegal, and other countries are searching for 
opportunities in other sectors, including restarting bauxite and 
phosphates mining, tourism to take advantage of untouched natural 
beauty and sport fishing, and higher-value commercial fisheries.  It 
is clear, however, that substantial development of the country's 
agricultural resources is the most promising avenue to economic 
development.  Unfortunately, the most significant current economic 
activity remains the proceeds and bribes related to drug 
trafficking, including laundering money into houses, hotels, and 
cars. 
 
Bottom Line 
----------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Guinea-Bissau is destined to remain at dire risk of 
becoming a narco-state unless it implements urgently needed security 
sector reform while concurrently fighting narcotics trafficking and 
promoting economic growth.  This will take significant input from 
donor countries in the form of material, training, and technical and 
operation assistance, as well as support for wider public sector 
reform and development assistance to jump start the country's 
economy. 
 
BERNICAT