VZCZCXYZ0009
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0107/01 0330814
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 020814Z FEB 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0821
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8899
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0351

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000107 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS, OBAMA'S 
INAUGURATION, NORTH KOREA 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan celebrated the Lunar New Year holiday from 
January 24 to February 1, 2009.  During this period, news coverage 
in major Taiwan Chinese-language dailies focused on the weather, 
traffic and New Year celebrations around the island.  In terms of 
editorials and commentaries, several editorials in the 
English-language dailies discussed the new Obama administration and 
future U.S.-China-Taiwan relations.  An editorial in the 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" said a 
trade war between Washington and Beijing seems unlikely at a time 
when the United States is struggling to weather its worst economic 
crisis since the Great Depression.  An editorial in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" urged the Obama 
administration to consider Taiwan's "international and military 
predicament with sympathy and to act on it with resolve as 
necessary."  An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taiwan News" also called on the Obama administration to review its 
Taiwan policy, which "must highlight the importance of continuing 
defensive arms sales to Taiwan" and "reaffirm U.S. support for the 
existence and deepening of Taiwan's democracy. ..."  A separate 
"China Post" editorial discussed the inauguration of U.S. President 
Barack Obama and said it would "mark the beginning of America's 
return to greatness by following the true spirit of the Founders and 
the Constitution."  A third "China Post" editorial discussed the 
situation on the Korean Peninsula, saying that Obama's inauguration 
is "clearly a golden chance for Pyongyang to achieve two of its 
central foreign policy objectives, namely the normalization of 
diplomatic relations with Washington and the signing of a peace 
treaty that formally ends the Korean War."  End summary. 
 
¶2. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "A Sino-U.S. Trade War?  Sounds Quite Unlikely" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (1/31): 
 
"... The issue of China's foreign exchange rate has been an irritant 
in U.S.-China trade for more than a decade. ...  [Tim] Geithner's 
warning, however, may carry a hidden message, telling Congress the 
new administration will be tough on China on trade issues, and 
Congress needn't be in a hurry to initiate punitive legislation 
against China, when a trade war with China would have no winners. At 
a time when the U.S. is struggling to weather the worst economic 
crisis since the Great Depression, and when Obama needs money he 
doesn't have to jumpstart the economy, the dumbest thing to do is 
start a trade war with China - the largest buyer of U.S. Treasury 
bonds and other government-backed debt. He must place U.S. national 
interest uber alles. 
 
"Considering the circumstances, a trade war is very unlikely. 
According to Nielsen Report early this week, Obama called his 
Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao over the weekend to express his hope 
for maintaining "strong, constructive" relations, and for closer 
cooperation in dealing with pressing world issues. So, what's in 
store for the Washington-Beijing relationship? To paraphrase Obama, 
'it may get worse before it gets better.'" 
 
B) "How Obama Matters to Taiwan" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (1/24): 
 
"... For Taiwan, Obama's rise to the top has brought no shortage of 
apprehension. While Obama's principles are quite flawless, the 
record of his party on relations with Taiwan has been all too 
inconsistent.  But there are two factors working in his favor: The 
likely line-up of Washington staffers with Taiwan and China 
responsibilities may not be as effusively pro-China as had been 
feared; and it is hard to imagine that things will get any worse 
than under the last years of former US president George W. Bush's 
administration.  For Taiwanese, the overriding question is this: 
What will Obama do with a Chinese state that is becoming 
increasingly assertive and arrogant and that is no less willing to 
rationalize systematic crimes against its own people? 
 
"If there is such a thing as a unitary Taiwanese voice, then perhaps 
this is what it would say to President Obama:  I honor and share 
your ideals, I wish to strengthen relations with an America that 
cultivates democracy and freedom and I have my own interests but 
they are not hostile to those of ordinary Americans. I reject 
despotism and the cynicism that flows from ossified structures of 
political patronage - and I ask humbly but urgently that you 
consider my international and military predicament with sympathy and 
act on it with resolve as necessary.  I wish China no ill, but the 
current Chinese government bears ill will for Taiwanese and scorns 
American values. My present government does not respect the fears of 
people who see little promise in a Chinese government that crushes 
human rights and exploits the poor even as it claims to champion 
 
both.  I am Taiwanese, and my identity is no less fundamental to my 
dignity and my future than that of a man who transcended hundreds of 
years of persecution of people of his kind to lead the most powerful 
and inspirational nation in the world." 
 
C) "Obama Needs Review of U.S.-Taiwan Policy" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (2/2): 
 
"... The current temporary cross-strait 'detente' is undoubtedly 
widely perceived as meeting U.S. interests, but some Washington 
pundits now suggest that the Obama administration should prepare 
contingency plans given rising uncertainty over just how the Chinese 
Communist Party-ruled PRC will respond to Ma's goodwill strategy and 
concern over the worsening of 'imbalances' in economic, political 
and military clout in the Taiwan Strait in China's favor.  The 
inconvenient truth is that, underneath a veneer of 'stability," a 
grave crisis is building in the Taiwan Strait that bodes ill for the 
very survival of Taiwan's democracy and for long-term hopes for 
peace in the Taiwan Strait and fundamental U.S. interests in the 
 
East Asian region.  The source of this undertow lies in the 
relentless pressure from the PRC that Taiwan must accept Beijing's 
'one China principle,' which posits that Taiwan is part of the PRC, 
as a precondition for political talks instead of an issue subject to 
negotiation. ... 
 
"After years of drift during which Washington has neglected the 
fundamental undertow of the exacerbating strategic imbalance in the 
PRC's favor, Obama has a choice to make if he intends to apply his 
own declarations that 'America is a friend of each nation and every 
man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity' and 
that the U.S. will resume 'leadership' to East Asia.  The new U.S. 
president can 'say less and do nothing' and thereby become a 
bystander to Beijing's absorption of democratic Taiwan and 
ultimately face the threat of a new regional balance of power 
dominated by an authoritarian and expansionist PRC.  Alternatively, 
the Obama government can act to restore balance by assisting the 
Taiwan government in strengthening its bargaining chips in 
negotiating with Beijing. 
 
"First, Obama should remind his PRC counterpart that Ma cannot 
disregard his duty to uphold Taiwan's democratic system despite his 
mandate to normalize relations with Beijing and that Washington 
insists on the principle, enunciated by former president Bill 
Clinton in February 2000, that any cross-strait settlement must be 
peaceful and have the democratic assent of the 23 million Taiwan 
people.  Moreover, we urge President Obama himself to take note of 
the strategic importance of a democratic Taiwan for its intrinsic 
value and for its catalytic role in promotion of democratic values 
in China and East Asia and the continued value of Taiwan as a 
security partner in Asia and launch a comprehensive review of U.S. 
policy toward Taiwan. ... 
 
"Second, a new policy review must highlight the importance of 
continuing defensive arms sales to Taiwan in order to address the 
yawning imbalance of military force in the Taiwan Strait in the 
PRC's favor and the need for the U.S. to play a role as a balancer 
and arbitrator to ensure that the process of cross-strait 
negotiations is fair, impartial and transparent and that any results 
receive the assent of the 23 million Taiwan people.  A new review 
should also stress that simply supporting Taiwan's 'international 
participation' in the World Health Organization, is insufficient and 
that the Obama administration should use its influence to persuade 
the PRC to cease its opposition to Taiwan's international space on 
an equal footing.  Last but not least, a new policy review should 
reaffirm U.S. support for the existence and deepening of Taiwan's 
democracy by granting more flexibility for mutual visits and 
exchanges among high-ranking officials to ensure mutual senior 
dialogue, by engaging in talks toward a free trade agreement and by 
advising the Ma administration that Taiwan's hard-won democracy 
should not be sacrificed for short-term cross-strait engagement." 
 
¶3. Obama's Inauguration 
 
"America Is Likely to Lead Again" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (1/24): 
 
"... Never before has a new U.S. president faced greater challenges 
and a more difficult time than Obama, the first African-American 
president, since the Declaration of Independence in 1776. At home, 
an economic crisis is the worst since the Great Depression in the 
1930s. Abroad, two costly wars are draining the country's resources 
and exacerbating its domestic woes. ...  Obama's predecessor, George 
¶W. Bush, believed in unilateralism and the supremacy of America's 
unparalleled military strength as the means for settling disputes. 
 
Obama, on the other hand, believes that 'power alone cannot protect 
us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please.' This is in line with 
Confucius' thinking that it's better to win over foes with virtue 
than with brute force. ... 
 
"The inauguration of Obama, hopefully, would mark the beginning of 
America's return to greatness by following the true spirits of the 
Founders and the Constitution.  'Starting today, we must pick 
ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of 
remaking America,' he said. These words did not sound hallow, as the 
work of remaking America began on day one of the Obama presidency. 
He is seeking, and will get, quick congressional support for his 
US$800 billion stimulus plan to jump start the stalling economy. His 
secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, is front and center in pushing 
forward diplomacy with a combination of soft and hard power to 
restore America's status and international prestige. Obama has 
surrounded himself with what political commentators called a "posse 
of 'hot nerds'" -- Democratic as well as Republican advisers. It is 
for this reason that we see the dawning of a new era -- an Obaman 
Era that would rival in importance with America's rebirth and 
revival after the Emancipation and Great Depression." 
 
¶4. North Korea 
 
"North Korea Stirs up Trouble" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (2/2): 
 
"... While the move to 'scrap' all agreements with Seoul is 
certainly cause for alarm across the Asian region, this fits into 
the bizarre pattern of behavior that North Korea regularly engages 
in.  when North Korea seeks to improve its bargaining position prior 
to engaging in negotiations with the international community, 
Pyongyang frequently resorts to 'brinksmanship' tactics aimed at 
evoking more concessions.  Here in Taiwan, we certainly do not want 
to see inter-Korean relations deteriorate further.  We also never 
want to see another war break out in Korea, as this would have 
tremendous humanitarian consequences, not to mention tossing a 
wrench into the already suffering regional economy amid the ongoing 
global economic crisis.  However, we also do not want to see the 
international community, and especially the United States under its 
new President Barack Obama, get cajoled into granting concessions 
that Pyongyang clearly does not deserve. ... 
 
"Clearly, North Korea is dead-set against reforming its economy and 
opening up to the outside world because its people would quickly 
learn how much better the lives of their cousins in South Korea are. 
 Regime survival, rather than any concern for the livelihood of the 
North Korean populace, is all that Pyongyang cares about.  But even 
from the narrow perspective of preserving the regime, there is much 
to be gained if Pyongyang eventually does begin talking to the new 
government in Washington and cooperating with South Korea and the 
international community.  The election of Barack Obama to the White 
House is clearly a golden chance for Pyongyang to achieve two of its 
central foreign policy objectives, namely the normalization of 
diplomatic relations with Washington and the signing of a peace 
treaty formally ending the Korean War.  These objectives could even 
be achieved without undertaking the economic and political reforms 
that North Korea is desperately in need of. ... 
 
"Eventually, Pyongyang is going to reach a point where it will have 
to begin reforming its economy and opening up to the outside world. 
Leaders in North Korea will have to make a choice about whether 
their regime will play a central role in implementing these reforms, 
like their counterparts in Beijing and Hanoi have done with great 
success, or hold out as long as they can before the regime implodes 
amid growing poverty and hopelessness among the people." 
 
WANG