VZCZCXRO6776
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #0075/01 0141635
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141635Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHRY/AMEMBASSY CONAKRY PRIORITY 0002
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4987
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 1618
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0600
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 0646
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000075 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019 
TAGS: PGOV ECOWAS PREL KDEM GV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA, ECOWAS TO STAND FIRM ON GUINEA 
 
REF: 08 ABUJA 2518 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b 
& d). 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On January 13, Poloff met with the Ministry 
of Foreign Affairs' ECOWAS Desk Officer, B.A. Nurudeen to 
discuss Nigeria's and ECOWAS' stance toward the coup in 
Guinea after the January 10 summit of regional Heads of 
State.  Nurudeen emphasized Nigeria's commitment to working 
within ECOWAS as it urges Guinea's military leaders to 
schedule elections at the soonest possible opportunity, 
preferably within 2009.  He said that only mild political 
sanctions would be placed on Guinea for now, and could not 
say what might trigger a stronger, more substantive response 
should an elections timetable become protracted.  Finally, he 
also described the circumstances under which Nigeria assumed 
ECOWAS' mantle of leadership -- which appears to have been 
something the GON neither sought nor wants.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) On January 13, subsequent to the January 10 Summit 
of ECOWAS Heads of State, the MFA's ECOWAS Desk Officer B.A. 
Nurudeen described Nigeria's stance toward Guinea as being 
one of "no tolerance" for the recent coup, and said that the 
GON would continue to use ECOWAS as the primary vehicle 
through which it would deal with Guinea.  Nigeria's actions 
would follow ECOWAS' political protocols, which call for 
"zero tolerance" for subversion of the democratic process in 
member states; suspension from Head of State-level meetings, 
for now, is as far as ECOWAS is willing to go in terms of 
political sanctions.  Nigeria would treat the National 
Council for Democracy and Development's (CNDD) promises to 
move rapidly toward elections, and their promises not to 
contest in those elections once they were held, as having 
been made in good faith.  Nigeria is calling for a 6-12 month 
election timetable, subsequent to the completion of a review 
of the Constitution, which he said was highly unpopular among 
ordinary Guineans.  When asked if former Nigerian President 
Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida's statements, made while serving 
as Yar'Adua's envoy, sent a mixed message (he said the coup 
plotters are "patriots," resulting in January 8 headlines 
such as the Daily Trust's "IBB Endorses Coup in Guinea"), 
Nurudeen said that Babangida's words had been taken out of 
context and merely reflected his personal sympathies, not the 
GON's official stand. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Nurudeen also described the circumstances under 
which Nigeria was given Chairmanship of the Heads of State 
Authority (reftel).  Following Burkina Faso's term in the 
seat, which is widely viewed as having been effective and 
robust, it was expected that Liberia or Sierra Leone would 
take the position, but both begged off.  After discussions 
"dragged on" and it was clear that no other anglophone 
country would step up, Nurudeen said the Chairmanship was 
"imposed" on Nigeria.  Nurudeen could not articulate what 
President Yar'Adua's plans might be for ECOWAS, and said that 
no additional MFA staff have yet been detailed to help plan 
the GON's next steps -- in fact, Nurudeen gave the appearance 
that assigning additional staff had not even occurred to 
anyone in the MFA. 
 
¶4. (C) COMMENT: Nigeria seems to have no sticks, and few 
carrots, to offer Guinea.  The two countries have little 
trade between them, and francophone Senegal's expressions of 
support will echo in Conakry much louder that anglophone 
Nigeria's disapproval.  ECOWAS' track record of attempting to 
apply its "zero tolerance" policy in situations of electoral 
fraud and coups is extremely uneven.  Given widespread 
unofficial sentiment that actions in Guinea were 
understandable, if not laudable, in light of its recent 
history, we expect ECOWAS to be very patient, if not 
indulgent, should the CNDD delay elections into 2010 and 
beyond. 
 
¶5. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: If ECOWAS is looking to the GON, in 
its role as the Chairman of the Heads of State Authority, to 
energize ECOWAS and drive its agenda, the Community is in for 
a moribund year.  The achievements of Yar'Adua -- popularly 
known as Baba Go-Slow -- in pursuing his own agenda have thus 
 
ABUJA 00000075  002 OF 002 
 
 
far been sparse; one would expect even less in pursuit of a 
role he does not want and, nearly a month into his term, 
still has not begun to plan for.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶6. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. 
Piascik