VZCZCXRO2754
RR RUEHGR
DE RUEHSP #0564/01 3451153
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101153Z DEC 08
FM AMEMBASSY PORT OF SPAIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9574
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHRC/AMEMBASSY ATO CARIBBEAN
RHMCSUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RUEANHA/FAA NATIONAL HQ WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PORT OF SPAIN 000564 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SANTO DOMINGO ALSO FOR REGIONAL COMMERCIAL OFFICE 
JUSTICE FOR OPDAT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EAGR ETRD KIPR KCRM EAIR BEXP TD
 
SUBJECT: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS FROM MID-OCTOBER 
THROUGH NOVEMBER 2008 
 
Notable economic developments in Trinidad & Tobago in late October 
and November: 
 
¶1. PM announces budget shortfall, spending cuts 
¶2. Inflation rising, CBTT raises reserve requirements 
¶3. Tight monetary policy slows credit growth 
¶4. Parliament passes Financial Institution Bill 
¶5. Bread and flour prices fall 
¶6. Food initiatives stalled, except Cuban farm 
¶7. Importers want CET lifted on fruit and veggies 
¶8. Disc Pirates Crushed 
¶9. Caribbean Airlines Expands Fleet 
¶10. COPA and Delta Increase Service 
¶11. Desalination underway, Korean firm first 
¶12. T&T global competitiveness ranking slips 
 
 
¶1. PM announces budget shortfall, spending cuts 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
On November 30 Prime Minister Manning announced cuts in 
discretionary spending in response to a projected FY-2009 budget 
shortfall of US$850 million, while promising that salaries and 
pensions, social programs, and law enforcement spending would be 
spared.  The announcement came two months after the GOTT delivered a 
record US$8 billion budget for FY-09, premised on oil at $70 per 
barrel and natural gas at $4 netback per MMBTU.  Prices of for these 
commodities, as well as T&T's methanol, ammonia and urea exports, 
had declined sharply in the intervening period.  The GOTT's new 
revenue projections are based on oil at $55 per barrel and natural 
gas at $3.25 to $3.50 netback per MMBTU.  For details and analysis, 
see Port of Spain 552. 
 
¶2. Inflation rising, CBTT raises reserve requirements 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
In response to rising inflation, on October 25 the Central Bank of 
Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) announced an increase in the commercial 
bank cash reserve requirement from 15% to 17%.  On November 21, with 
inflation continuing to rise, the CBTT left its benchmark "repo" 
rate unchanged at 8.75%, anticipating saying that inflationary 
pressures will ease as a result of GOTT spending cuts and falling 
prices for food and other commodities on international markets. 
Headline inflation rose to 15.4% (year-on-year) in October 2008 from 
14.8% in September.  Food price inflation, which has been a key 
driver of the headline inflation rate, registered at 33.4% YOY, 
slightly below the 34.6% figure recorded in September.  Core 
inflation, which hovered in the vicinity of 6.2% over the prior 
three months, rose to 7.4% in October 2008.  Separately, the IMF 
team conducting T&T's annual Article IV consultation predicted 
inflation would moderate to 12% at end-2008 and 7% in 2009. 
 
The full text of Central Bank announcement is posted at 
http://www.central-bank.org.tt/ 
 
The IMF team's press release is at 
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2008/pr 08288.htm 
 
¶3.  Tight monetary policy slows credit growth 
--------------------------------------------- 
Tight monetary policy led to slower credit growth.  The Central Bank 
of Trinidad and Tobago reported that 12-month expansion in credit 
was 11.8% in September, down from growth rates of 16.1% in December 
2007 and 19.7% in September 2007.  Growth in commercial bank credit 
to the private sector slowed to 16.2% in September 2008 from 21.7% 
in December 2007 and 24% in September 2007.  Consumer credit, which 
had been growing at around 22% on a year-on-year basis at the start 
of the year, slowed to 11.5% in September 2008. Business credit has 
followed a similar trend slowing to 9.4% in September 2008 from 
around 14% in January.  The Report also cited a slowdown in the 
residential real estate market in response to rising mortgage rates 
(median 9-10% in the second quarter of 2008, up from 8-9% in the 
second quarter of 2007).  Most commercial banks raised their prime 
lending rate to 13% in October; however several banks have publicly 
committed not to raise mortgage rates further so as not to push 
borrowers into default. 
 
The full Monetary Policy Report is posted at 
http://www.central-bank.org.tt/news/releases/ 2008/ 
mr081117.pdf 
 
¶4.  Parliament passes Financial Institution Bill 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Both chambers of T&T's Parliament passed the Financial Institutions 
 
PORT OF SP 00000564  002 OF 003 
 
 
Act, 2008, meant to replace the Financial Institutions Act, 1993. 
The new Act modernizes regulation of banks, insurance companies and 
other financial institutions, and provides penalties up to 
US$800,000 and five years in jail for operating without a license 
from the Central Bank.  Directors and officers of a company 
violating the act are subject to joint and several liability.  The 
Act is a key element in the GOTT effort to improve the regulatory 
framework for launching an international financial center in Port of 
Spain.  During parliamentary debate GOTT ministers also said it 
would help protect T&T from the effects of the ongoing international 
financial crisis.  New regulations are in the works for the 
securities industry and credit unions as well. 
 
¶5.  Bread and flour prices fall 
------------------------------- 
With wheat prices falling, the state-owned National Flour Mills 
announced a reduction in the price of flour.  NFM stated that its 
stock of higher priced wheat was almost totally depleted and it was 
now in a position to provide more affordable flour.  With decreases 
in major raw material inputs, one of the country's largest bakeries, 
Kiss Baking Company, also announced a reduction in the price of its 
brand of bread. 
 
¶6.  Food initiatives stalled, except Cuban farm 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Junior Finance Minister Mariano Browne revealed that GOTT request 
for proposals (RFP) to set up large-scale farms in Trinidad 
attracted insufficient interest.  The GOTT had issued the RFP in 
2007, seeking foreign investors to establish ten 100-acre farms on 
state-owned land in order to boost agriculture and curb food price 
inflation.  The only "mega-farm" project to get off the ground is a 
200-acre State Farm in Tucker Valley, Chaguaramas, in Trinidad's 
northwestern peninsula, set up with support from Cuban advisors 
under a government-to-government arrangement.  A separate GOTT 
initiative mandating National Flour Mills (NFM) to import bulk food 
and sell at a low mark-up was discontinued after NFM lost 
US$635,000. 
 
¶7.  Importers want CET lifted on fruit and veggies 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Local importers of US produce called on government to suspend the 
40% CARICOM External Tariff (CET) on fruits and vegetables in order 
to bring down prices.  One import company official complained that 
the 40% CET rate applies to high grade cabbage, carrots and 
cauliflower imported from Florida, when these same items enter 
duty-free from Costa Rica. (Note: CARICOM concluded a free trade 
agreement with Costa Rica in 2004.)  The company official pointed 
out that CARICOM nations were unable to supply the quantities and 
quality of products required to keep prices down, while local 
farmers have suffered heavy losses due to flooding. 
 
¶8.  Disc Pirates Crushed 
------------------------ 
Officials of the Copyright Organisation of Trinidad and Tobago 
(COTT) together with the San Fernando City police crushed more than 
4,000 pirated DVDs and music CDs with an estimated street value of 
US$8,000.  The CDs represented over US$3,000 in lost revenue for 
local artistes.  Separately, five persons including a minor appeared 
in Court in Port of Spain charged under the Copyright Act for 
possession and sale of illegal DVDs.  Commenting on recent IPR 
enforcement actions, COTT's Anti Piracy Unit said that the 
successful fight against music piracy has caused pirates to shift 
from music to movies. 
 
¶9.  Caribbean Airlines Expands Fleet 
------------------------------------ 
Effective November 15, Caribbean Airlines (CAL) added an eighth 
Boeing 737-800 aircraft to its fleet, for a total of 13 aircraft. 
This addition will allow CA to increase its flights for the 
Christmas and Carnival seasons and also increase frequency to 
certain destinations.  CAL's CEO Phillip Saunders highlighted the 
T&T-based airline's positive growth during a time when other 
carriers are pulling back.  CAL plans to provide 20 weekly flights 
to New York, with 25 during peak seasons.  CAL will continue its 
daily non-stop service between Trinidad and Miami and Fort 
Lauderdale. 
 
¶10.  COPA and Delta Increase Service 
------------------------------- 
Panama-based carrier Copa Airlines announced it will increase its 
flight frequency to T&T from four to six per week from December 15. 
Delta Airlines announced that it will resume weekly nonstop service 
 
PORT OF SP 00000564  003 OF 003 
 
 
from Tobago to Atlanta on Sundays, effective December 21. 
 
¶11.  Desalination underway, Korean firm first 
-------------------------------------------- 
The Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) is testing a new 
desalination plant constructed by Korean firm Hankook Jungsoo 
Industries (HAJI) at Moruga, on Trinidad's remote southern coast. 
WASA and HAJI signed a Memorandum of Agreement in April for the 
construction of the plant, which is to supply 100,000 gallons of 
water daily to some 400 homes, on a trial basis, with options for 
WASA to purchase the plant or confirm a water supply agreement. 
Construction was completed in September.  Trinidad and Tobago's 
five-year, US$1.6 billion water master plan, unveiled in April, 
includes plans to build five desalination plants in Trinidad; 
FY-2009 budget cuts will not affect these plans, according to the 
Minister of Public Utilities. 
 
¶12.  T&T global competitiveness ranking slips 
--------------------------------------------- 
The Global Competitiveness Report 2008/2009 published by the World 
Economic Forum (WEF) saw Trinidad and Tobago's ranking in the Global 
Competitiveness Index slip from 84th out of 131 countries last year 
to 92nd out of 134 countries evaluated this year.  T&T's strongest 
scores, for macroeconomic stability and financial market 
sophistication, were offset by weak scores for institutions, goods 
market efficiency, and market size.  T&T ranks third among the 
CARICOM countries evaluated by the WEF, behind Barbados (47th) and 
Jamaica (85th). 
 
KUSNITZ