VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMO #2910/01 2751313
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 011313Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0186
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 002910 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM RS
SUBJECT: KEMEROVO'S POLITICAL OPPOSITION FINDS LITTLE 
TRACTION IN LEAD-UP TO REGIONAL ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Alice Wells for reasons 1.4 
 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: In Kemerovo Oblast, no party can muster a 
viable opposition to United Russia's (ER) stranglehold on 
local politics.  Led by charismatic governor Aman Tuleyev, ER 
holds a supermajority in the regional parliament that likely 
will grow in the upcoming October 12 elections.  Liberal 
parties and the Communist Party (KPRF) barely register in the 
region, while LDPR and Just Russia are left to fight each 
other over any votes that may push them over the 7 percent 
electoral threshold.  On September 30, KPRF filed an official 
complaint against Tuleyev in response to what they call his 
illegal "anti-communist propaganda."  Voter turnout is 
expected to reach 65 percent.  End Summary. 
 
Liberals Founder, Communists Sue To Remain Afloat 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (C) Liberal political opposition is nearly non-existent in 
Kemerovo region.  The Union of Right Forces (SPS), the 
region's only liberal party of note, has been unable to 
muster public support and speaks primarily through its 
affiliation with local independent newspaper Nasha Gazeta. 
The paper's editor, Dmitriy Shagiakhmetov, doubles as the 
region's SPS head, and even he acknowledged that daily 
readership is no more than 2,000-3,000.  Liberal opposition 
parties have no access to television or radio, Shagiakhmetov 
lamented in a September 22 meeting, and internet outreach 
does not produce results.  Despite his limited reach, 
Shagiakhmetov nonetheless considers his party, along with ER 
and KPRF, to be one of only three "real" parties in Kemerovo. 
 
¶3. (C) KPRF State Duma Deputy Nina Ostanina acknowledged that 
her party has lost substantial prestige since popular 
Kemerovo governor Aman Tuleyev switched affiliation from KPRF 
to ER.  Still, on September 23 Ostanina preferred to look to 
a future when "voters will see that (United Russia) did not 
deliver" on its promises and as a result return to KPRF.  On 
September 30, according to a Kommersant article, KPRF in 
Kemerovo filed an official complaint against Tuleyev for what 
KPRF deemed the governor's illegal campaigning against 
Communists while using administrative resources. 
Specifically, KPRF alleged, Tuleyev "spread information 
damaging the honor, dignity, and business reputation" of his 
opponents.  KPRF's Ostanina told media that she recognized 
that the complaint will not change the electoral outcome, but 
she hoped it will "reduce or terminate anti-communist 
propaganda." (Note: This latest legal row is clearly a 
response to a lawsuit that Tuleyev in February brought 
against KPRF's national leader, Gennadiy Zyuganov.  Zyuganov 
had publicly accused the governor and Kemerovo authorities of 
"flagrantly violating the law" and of arresting and beating 
KPRF members.  A court ruled then that Zyuganov had to pay 
Tuleyev 18,000USD for "damaging (the governor's) honor, 
dignity, and business reputation."  End Note.) 
 
¶4. (C) Kemerovo University political scientist Sergey 
Biryukov told us September 22 that ER, Just Russia (SR), and 
LDPR are the only "real parties in Kemerovo."  KPRF, he 
noted, is "in crisis" and retains no relevance today. 
Biryukov summarized SPS's marginal status by explaining that 
"they never had resonance with miners or industrial workers." 
 
Upcoming Opposition Conferences 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Shagiakhmetov told us that an October 25 regional 
conference of liberal democratic opposition will take place 
in Kemerovo, to which representatives from Altai Krai also 
have been invited.  The results of this conference, 
Shagiakhmetov noted, would help to inform a national 
democratic opposition conference planned for December 13 in 
Moscow. 
 
Just Russia and LDPR Predict Bright Futures For Themselves 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶6. (C) In a September 23 meeting, Just Russia leader Yelena 
Yamshchikova repeatedly emphasized SR's youth in the region, 
boasting that in just two years the party had made dramatic 
progress in attracting new members.  The next four years, she 
predicted, would bring &political successes, social change, 
and popular support8 for SR.  Yamshchikova described her 
party as "constructive opposition" to ER, but regional 
leaders of KPRF, SPS, and LDPR all told us that they could 
see no meaningful difference between ER and SR.  Questioning 
SR's role in the opposition, LDPR head Vladimir Bunkin 
scoffed that SR "does not have a plan" and is inseparable 
from ER.  Political scientist Sergey Biryukov agreed, adding 
that in Kemerovo "&SR tries to attach itself to ER to move 
 
its program forward," but their ability to gain influence on 
political and economic conditions "depends entirely on its 
relationship with ER." 
 
¶7. (C) LDPR leaders were optimistic regarding prospects in 
future elections.  "The government is corrupt," and "there 
are not enough smart and competent people in the government" 
for ER to maintain its stranglehold on Kemerovo politics, 
noted LDPR's Bunkin in a September 23 meeting.  Primarily old 
people vote for KPRF, Bunkin observed, and as they die off 
votes will accrue to LDPR since it attracts more young voters. 
 
October 12 Elections Expected To Be United Russia Landslide 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶8. (C) All observers agreed that ER will win a supermajority 
in the region's October 12 parliamentary elections. 
Thirty-six seats are being contested by the four State Duma 
parties, since SPS and the Party of Peace and Unity were 
excluded by electoral authorities for what were deemed 
irregularities in submitted petition signatures.  Professor 
Biryukov estimated that ER will win 30 of the 36 seats, with 
SR and LDPR splitting the remaining seats.  SR's Yamshchikova 
estimated that her party would win 10-12 percent of the vote. 
 LDPR's Bunkin estimated that his party would take 14 
percent.  KPRF State Duma Deputy predicted that the 
Communists would take 7-8 percent.  Sergey Reutov, chairman 
of the region's electoral commission, predicted a 65 percent 
voter turnout for the election, down from 72 percent for the 
March presidential election. 
 
¶9. (C) Comment:  United Russia continues to dominate Kemerovo 
politics, leaving other parties to fight for scraps in hopes 
of winning any seats in the regional parliament.  Non-ER 
parties recognize the impossibility of cutting into ER's 
base, so they instead must look to poach each other's votes. 
Further illustrating ER's strength is how both KPRF and LDPR 
prefer to look far into the future, by which time the 
Communists hope miners will return to KPRF, and LDPR hopes 
that all the Communists will have died off.  The minuscule 
presence of any political opposition, aside from SR's straw 
man "constructive opposition," ensures that even State Duma 
parties will be marginalized.  Accordingly, October 12 will 
be less a referendum on ER than a commentary on the region's 
neutered and fractious opposition. 
BEYRLE