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DE RUEHSB #0889/01 2751435
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O 011435Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3512
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2332
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2450
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0964
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1728
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2083
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2504
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4936
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1599
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000889 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR G. GARLAND 
DRL FOR N. WILETT 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E. LOKEN AND L. DOBBINS 
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ON AGREEMENT STALEMATE 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) MDC leader and prime minister designate Morgan 
Tsvangirai briefed Western Heads of Mission (HOMS) October 1 
on the stalemate in talks directed at concluding an agreement 
to establish a power-sharing government.  Tsvangirai said the 
talks had stalled over Mugabe's failure to cede the home 
affairs and finance ministries to the MDC.  He did not 
believe that Mugabe wanted to scuttle the talks, but was 
facing resistance from within ZANU-PF.  Tsvangirai stated 
that the process of establishing a power-sharing government 
was irreversible; SADC assistance and international pressure 
would be important in moving the process forward.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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Stalemate 
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¶2.  (SBU) Tsvangirai informed diplomats he had met on 
September 30 with Mugabe to follow up on outstanding issues, 
principally the division of ministries between ZANU-PF and 
the MDC.  Although four ministries had not been decided 
on--home affairs, finance, local government, and foreign 
affairs--only home affairs and finance were discussed. 
Mugabe insisted that ZANU-PF name the heads of these 
ministries.  Tsvangirai refused to cede what he considered to 
be critical ministries to ZANU-PF.  He told the HOMs that 
talks had not broken off; he and Mugabe had agreed to 
disagree and he expected a resumption of talks. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) According to Tsvangirai, Mugabe told him that some 
in ZANU-PF wanted to throw out the September 11 agreement. 
Tsvangirai opined that ZANU-PF was deeply divided.  He 
commented that the Joint Operational Command (JOC), supported 
by Reserve Bank governor Gideon Gono and Grace Mugabe, had 
met last week to discuss delaying the inauguration of the new 
government and marginalizing Tsvangirai.  Nevertheless, 
Tsvangirai believed that Mugabe himself was committed to an 
agreement and was prepared to the extent possible to fight 
ZANU-PF elements opposed to a deal.  Mugabe realized that the 
JOC and other opponents had no solutions to Zimbabwe's 
problems.  His refusal to agree with Tsvangirai on the issue 
of ministries was a result, according to Tsvangirai, of 
pressures from within ZANU-PF. 
 
¶4.  (C) Despite the stalemate, Tsvangirai argued that the 
process which would include the MDC as a major player in 
government was irreversible.  This was due to significant 
domestic momentum for change and continuing international 
interest.  The country was now being held hostage to 40 or 50 
ZANU-PF insiders clinging to power and this should not and 
would not continue. 
 
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Next Steps 
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¶5.  (SBU) Tsvangirai said Mugabe had relied on Mbeki during 
negotiations and was regretting his potential absence from 
the process.  Tsvangirai himself thought Mbeki could continue 
to play a useful role and had spoken to him a couple of days 
ago.  Mbeki told Tsvangirai his continuing position as 
mediator would be dependent on support from new South African 
president Motlanthe.  Tsvangirai said he subsequently 
approached the South African ambassador to Zimbabwe to 
suggest Motlanthe support Mbeki's mediation role.  Tsvangirai 
 
HARARE 00000889  002 OF 002 
 
 
also suggested to the HOMs that ANC president Jacob Zuma 
could play an influential role.  He said he had talked to 
Zuma and urged him to make a statement in support of a 
balanced power-sharing agreement.  (COMMENT: Disconcertingly, 
Tsvangirai said he had no timetable for concluding an 
agreement, raising the possibility that negotiations could 
drag on without a government being formed.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Turning to the international community, Tsvangirai 
urged the U.S. and EU to make statements supporting a process 
ending in a government that reflected the will of the people. 
 It should also be made clear to ZANU-PF that any assistance 
must be based on political and economic reform. 
 
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Mutambara on Board 
------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Tsvangirai said he had spoken with Arthur Mutambara 
immediately before the diplomatic briefing.  Despite 
differences with the MDC-Mutambara faction during 
negotiations and in the election of the House of Assembly 
speaker, Tsvangirai believed Mutambara was fully behind 
Tsvangirai's efforts to achieve a fair division of ministries 
and equitable power-sharing agreement. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶8.  (C) Tsvangirai in briefing the HOMs professed sympathy 
for Mugabe in battling forces within ZANU-PF and seemed to 
blame opponents of Mugabe within ZANU-PF rather than Mugabe 
for the stalemate in talks.  We're not convinced.  Mugabe 
wrung significant concessions from Tsvangirai in the 
September 11 agreement and convinced him to sign with the 
promise that the division of ministries could be easily 
worked out.  Mugabe may well be using the ostensible 
inflexibility of others within ZANU-PF in an effort to 
continue securing concessions from Tsvangirai. 
 
¶9.  (C) With Mbeki at least partly out of the picture, 
Motlanthe and Jacob Zuma are increasingly important in 
mediating a final agreement.  We suggest encouraging 
Tsvangirai to meet with Motlanthe to explore continued South 
African assistance in the mediation process.  Tsvangirai 
could suggest to Motlanthe that the SADC reference group--the 
AU (Jean Ping) and UN (Haile Menkerios)--which has an 
institutional memory of the process be brought in to support 
SADC and its designated mediator, whether Mbeki or someone 
else.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCGEE