VZCZCXRO6019
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #0965/01 2751251
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011251Z OCT 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3446
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000965 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2013 
TAGS: PGOV HU
SUBJECT: CAN THE CENTER HOLD?: HUNGARY'S SMALL PARTIES 
FIGHT (EACH OTHER) FOR SURVIVAL 
 
REF: BUDAPEST 950 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Hungary's "independent opposition parties" find 
themselves locked in conflict for centrist voters, fighting 
for what little oxygen is left from the raging conflict 
between the MSzP and FIDESZ. 
 
THE SZDSZ: INTERNAL BLEEDING 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In the past weeks, the SzDSz has lost both public 
support and political credibility.  The divide between the 
supporters of Party President Gabor Fodor and his 
predecessor, Janos Koka remains deep, and elections for 
lower-ranking positions continue to reflect a 51-49 split 
between the party's two factions. 
 
¶3.  (C) Unable to address these internal conflicts or to 
exact major concessions from the MszP (reftel), the SzDSz is 
left in a state of limbo: their reformist policies are at 
variance with the public mood, their coffers are reportedly 
low, and their long-time administration of Budapest has 
opened the party up to serious charges of incompetence ... or 
worse.  As a result, the SzDSz's poll numbers remain well 
below the five percent threshold required for representation 
in Parliament despite the fact that up to twenty percent of 
Hungarians identify themselves as liberals. 
 
¶4.  (C) Although insiders admit that the party has been in 
decline for years, it has been able to rely on the tacit and 
the overt support of the MSzP in recent elections.  With the 
demise of their coalition, however, Socialist MP Attila 
Mesterhazy tells us that "our voters hate the SzDSz so much 
now they wouldn't help them if we asked them to."  Without 
that support, the SzDSz's prognosis is negative. 
 
THE MDF: JUST A FLESH WOUND? 
 
¶5.  (C) Though better off than the SzDSz, the MDF is weakened 
as well.  An ugly wiretapping scandal preceding the party 
elections has revealed intense competition within the party 
leadership (septel), and Party President Ibolya David 
survived her reelection bid with a substantially lower share 
of the votes than she received in 2006.  Her rival, MP Kornel 
Almassy, was expelled from the party praesidium at their 
September 27 convention and has vowed to take his appeal to 
the courts. 
 
¶6.  (C) Although party insiders complain that much of the 
conflict has been fostered by FIDESZ, others admit that there 
are generational tensions within the party as well as growing 
frustration with David's inability to approach her stated 
goal of ten percent in the polls.  (Note: That Dr. David 
continues to rank among the most popular politicians in 
Hungary only adds to the ire of many.  End Note.)  Many of 
the MDF's policy positions have been taken over by the larger 
parties, and their public rhetoric about being "the party of 
Hungary's productive tax-payers" is unlikely to win converts 
in a society where tax evasion runs rampant.  Moreover, 
repeated charges of their collusion with either FIDESZ or the 
MSzP have caused the party's presumptive hold on the moral 
high ground to slip. 
 
AND THE GOOD NEWS ... 
 
¶7.  (C) The footing is treacherous even on the moral low 
ground.  The far-right Magyar Garda has been rocked by a 
series of resignations at senior levels, with the 
paramilitary group's "commander" stepping down in light of 
concerns regarding the "political motives" of MG founder and 
JOBBIK Party President Gabor Vona.  Although replacements 
have quickly been named, the resignations have been an 
embarrassment for the Garda, which has carefully managed its 
public image to date.  (Note: As one observer commented, 
"Vona may be a clever man leading a bunch of morons."  End 
Note.) 
 
A HIGHER COEFFICIENT OF FRICTION 
 
¶8.  (C) Comment: The tectonic plates of Hungarian politics 
are shifting.  With FIDESZ's attempts to move toward the 
center ) which provide an opening for the far right - both 
the SzDSz and the MDF are fighting each other for political 
survival at the center of the spectrum.  Although personal 
animosities prevent Fodor's cooperation with Prime Minister 
Gyurcsany or David's with FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban, the 
sharp differences between the MDF and SzDSz over social 
issues will also likely prevent their cooperation with each 
other.  At a time when the public mood is polarized, neither 
 
BUDAPEST 00000965  002 OF 002 
 
 
has made significant inroads with undecided voters.  If their 
conflict continues, one ) or both ) of the "independent 
opposition" parties may falter in the next elections.  That 
would bring Hungary a step closer to the two-party system 
some analysts believe is the ultimate destination.  End 
Comment. 
Foley