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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8906
INFO RUEHZH/HAITI COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 2067
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 0238
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 PORT AU PRINCE 001377 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR, DRL, S/CRS, INR/IAA 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR 
TREASURY FOR MAUREEN WAFER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID HA
SUBJECT: HAITI:  FAVORABLE POLITICAL WINDS FOR NEW 
GOVERNMENT AFTER HURRICANES 
 
REF: A) PORT AU PRINCE 1364 B) PORT AU PRINCE 1301 C) 
     PORT AU PRINCE 1275 
 
PORT AU PR 00001377  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Janet A. Sanderson.  Reason:  E.O. 12958 1.4 
(b), (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The government of Michele Pierre-Louis entered its 
first 100 days facing the monumental challenge of a national 
disaster, but enjoys a political honeymoon with a parliament 
disposed to give her the support she needs to help victims 
and rebuild the country, and with a public unaccustomed to 
effective government and inclined to give her the benefit of 
the doubt for now.  Whether the government can turn this 
natural disaster into a political opportunity will depend on 
Pierre-Louis' decisiveness in disaster management, how 
effectively she works with parliament, and whether President 
Preval allows his new Prime Minister autonomy to govern 
without his frequent interference.  A truce exceeding two to 
three months is unlikely, since the capacity of Haitian 
politicians to put aside personal interests for the sake of 
the national good is congenitally limited.  Hurricane and 
flood damage means that Senate elections will not happen 
until the spring of 2009 at the earliest.  The Senate, 
vulnerable to quorum-blocking due 
to 12 vacant Senate seats, remains a potential source of 
trouble for the government.  Embassy continues to urge all 
actors to support the new government's rebuilding efforts, 
and move toward elections as soon as possible.  End Summary. 
 
Storm Disaster Produced Favorable Winds for New Government 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Michele Pierre-Louis took office as Prime Minister 
September 5 after a protracted and acrimonious battle between 
the executive and legislative branches that saw two previous 
PM candidates rejected by parliament.  Her government was 
sworn in just as the magnitude of the destruction wrought by 
four successive hurricanes was becoming clear.  The political 
winds she faces at the moment are favorable.  The 
catastrophic damage across most of the country caused by 
these storms has given the President and the PM temporary 
immunity from political prosecution, with the focus on 
helping victims rather than assigning blame.  Reginald 
Boulos, a businessman and political observer often sharply 
critical of the President, told PolCouns that the hurricane 
damage has disposed the public to hold catastrophic weather 
events and not the President or PM responsible for their 
hardship.  He predicted that this situation would help the 
government get through the challenges facing the government 
before the storms, especially the delayed opening of the 
school year, now scheduled for October 6. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Another traditional obstacle to the smooth 
functioning of government in Haiti, the parliament, stands 
temporarily forced into a cooperative mood, feeling pressure 
to repair its obstructionist image created by its toppling 
the government in April and then preventing the approval of a 
new government for nearly five months.  Now that the new 
government has taken office in the middle of national 
disaster, the parliament is inclined to give it what it asks 
for in disaster relief and reconstruction.  PM Pierre-Louis, 
for her part, is inclined to repair bruised relations with 
the legislative branch.  The private sector generally 
supports her, and is taking its own fund-raising initiatives 
to aid hurricane victims. (septel). 
 
PM Trying to Turn Calamity into Opportunity 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Taking advantage of this situation, Pierre-Louis has 
moved decisively in her first three weeks in office, saying 
she wanted to turn this disaster into an opportunity.  She 
created a government coordinating committee to oversee 
disaster relief (ref C), got state of emergency legislation 
 
PORT AU PR 00001377  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
through parliament on nearly unanimous votes (ref B), 
announced a USD 197,560,000 emergency relief and 
reconstruction program (ref A), and personally visited three 
stricken areas.  A majority of legislators, party officials, 
and outside observers give Pierre-Louis high marks for these 
initial steps.  They believe her trips to affected regions 
and contact with disaster victims on the ground helped her 
image, in stark contrast to the reclusive habits of President 
Preval and the choreographed visits outside the capital by 
the preceding PM Jacques Edouard Alexis. 
 
PM's First Moves Encouraging 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Embassy contacts in the parliament, political 
parties, and the private sector believe the duration of this 
truce will depend on whether the PM continues to move 
decisively.  If her government's momentum flags, deputies and 
senators will move into the vacuum to criticize and obstruct. 
 Her honeymoon with the legislature will also hinge on 
whether she allows senators and deputies to share the 
political limelight of reconstruction.  Legislators want the 
credit for getting projects for their districts, believing 
this is the only way they have to get re-elected.  The first 
signs of the government's handling of the parliament are 
encouraging.  The PM took four deputies from the Southern 
Department with her in a September 23 visit to Les Cayes. 
Finally, legislators and observers tell us that Pierre-Louis 
needs to be allowed to govern free of meddling by President 
Preval.  The President's fear of the political ambitions of 
former Prime Minister Alexis led him to keep the PM and his 
ministers on a very short leash.  Embassy's initial 
impression is that Preval, at least initially, will allow PM 
Pierre-Louis more room to govern.  However, we are seeing a 
worrying habit of the President to tie the PM down in long, 
drawn out meetings. 
 
Parliament Supportive 
--------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Parliamentary support for Pierre-Louis is strong but 
not unanimous.  The preponderant belief in both legislative 
chambers is that they must support the legislation needed for 
disaster relief and reconstruction.  That perception 
motivated the strong support for the state of emergency law. 
All indications are that it will extend to the amended FY 
2007-2008 budget submitted the week of September 22 and the 
follow-on FY 2008-2009 budget. 
 
¶7. (C) The majority bloc in the Chamber of Deputies, the 
Cooperative of Progressive Parliamentarians (CPP), is still 
solidly behind the government, but Embassy suspects behind 
this support lies the hope of securing projects for their 
districts.  Approximately 20-25 percent of deputies remain at 
the very least unenthusiastic.  Deputies Jonas Coffy (Fanmis 
Lavalas) and Elouse Doreus (OPL) told Poloff September 23 
that this government is worse than the preceding one, unable 
to help the Haitian people, and discredited by the fact that 
eight ministers from the previous government had been held 
over.  Nevertheless, Embassy believes that deputies will find 
it hard to justify opposing the PM on disaster relief and 
reconstruction.  The Senate for now is disposed to work with 
the government.  Officials of political parties that 
instructed their deputies to abstain on the Pierre-Louis 
confirmation vote (Fusion, OPL) now criticize her privately. 
Fusion spokesman Micha Gaillard told Poloff September 25 he 
was not impressed with Pierre-Louis, whom he advised to stop 
traveling and start governing and showing leadership.  We 
note, however, that Fusion for now is not taking this message 
public. 
 
Things That Could Spoil the New Atmosphere 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Seeds of potential conflict in executive-legislative 
relationship are already apparent. Certain Senators are using 
high fuel prices as an issue to score points against the 
 
PORT AU PR 00001377  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
government.  The Senate Committees on Commerce, and Justice 
and Public Security grilled Minister of Economy and Finance 
Daniel Dorsainvil and Minister of Commerce Marie 
Josee-Gagnier in a September 25 hearing as to why gas prices 
in Haiti had not fallen in step with world oil prices. 
Dorsainvil said that the decreased price of recent deliveries 
of refined products might enable the government to reduce 
pump prices, but he made no promises. 
 
¶9. (C) However, the PM herself may have had a hand in calling 
these hearings, as a backhanded maneuver to pressure 
Dorsainvil, a holdover from the previous government known for 
opposing any policy at odds with his strong orthodox economic 
views.  Senator Michel Clerie (Fusion, Grand Anse), who 
chairs the Senate Commerce Committee, told PolCouns that 
persons close to PM Pierre-Louis had asked him to summon 
Dorsainvil before the Committee as a way to pressure him to 
lower gas prices, since the government had been unable to 
convince him.  If true, this would indicate that Pierre-Louis 
is not yet able to impose her will on all members of her 
cabinet.  She has told the Ambassador, however, that she is 
''surprised'' at how well the Cabinet is following her lead. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Michele Pierre-Louis caused controversy when she 
promised the week of September 15 to give each of Haiti's 144 
municipalities 5 million Haitian gourdes (USD 125,000), of 
which 1 million gourdes ($25,000) would be allocated to each 
Senator and Deputy to disburse in their districts.  This 
immediately provoked protests that implementing government 
programs is not the constitutional function of legislative 
branch, and that putting government project money into the 
hands of legislators was an invitation to corruption.  Senate 
President Kely Bastien said on the radio late in the week of 
September 22 that senators and deputies would not administer 
these funds, but only help identify projects they would be 
spent on. 
 
Senate Elections Further Delayed 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) The Senate may prove to be troublesome for the new 
government.  Embassy sources agree that current conditions 
make Senate elections impossible this year, even though they 
are already almost one year behind schedule.  Certain members 
of the Provision Electoral Council (CEP) have said that they 
can be held in March 2009 at the earliest.  Outside the CEP, 
many political and private sector sources, as well as 
MINUSTAH electoral affairs officials, now suspect the 
government will merge the delayed Senate elections with the 
next round of Senate election, elections for the entire 
Chamber of Deputies, and local elections, which 
constitutionally should all be held in late 2009.  The fact 
that 12 of 30 Senate seats remain vacant, while the quorum 
remains at 16, makes that body vulnerable to the whim of any 
combination of three senators who choose to stay away.  The 
temptation to use that leverage to further personal political 
agendas may prove hard to resist. 
 
¶12. (C) PM Pierre-Louis, however, has told the Ambassador 
that she is determined that the Senate elections be held as 
soon as feasible.  President Preval told the press September 
28 that Senate elections were a high priority, and that he 
would consult with the CEP on setting a date. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) How long these favorable winds will blow is 
anybody's guess, but we believe the current political truce 
is fragile at best.  The capacity of Haiti's political class 
to look beyond short-term personal interest and ambition to 
focus on the good of the nation is surprisingly limited, even 
in times of crisis.  Several Embassy political contacts 
confirm that the obsession with the 2009 legislative and the 
2011 presidential elections continues to churn just below the 
surface despite the current relative good will toward the new 
government.  The government's USD 197 million reconstruction 
 
PORT AU PR 00001377  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
plan could easily fall prey to political bickering and 
accusations of corruption.  Accusations that the government 
is favoring some regions over others with disaster assistance 
are already emerging and will probably become more vehement. 
Nevertheless, we are impressed by the Pierre-Louis 
government's decisive first steps, and by the PM's stated 
intention to turn the disaster into an opportunity to rally 
Haitians behind a national rebuilding effort.  Unity is a 
powerful rallying cry in the Haitian political vocabulary. 
Often used frivolously, Pierre-Louis is using it in a serious 
effort to launch her new government into disaster relief and 
reconstruction.  Embassy will continue to urge all political 
actors to put aside individual differences and support the 
government in meeting the overwhelming challenges of this 
moment. 
SANDERSON