VZCZCXRO3129
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #2053/01 2461158
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021158Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6907
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 0379
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7360
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - President and Prime Minister Face Hostile 
Parliament 
 
REF: A) Addis Ababa 2338 
B) Nairobi 1958 
 
NAIROBI 00002053  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  After signing an August 26 agreement in Addis 
Ababa to reconcile internal political conflicts, President Yusuf and 
Prime Minister Hassan Hussein returned to Baidoa to brief parliament 
on the accord.  While the two senior officials convinced their 
respective camps to support the Addis agreement, continued discord 
within the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) will challenge its 
implementation.  On September 1, a motion of no-confidence tabled 
against the Prime Minister became an overwhelming vote of confidence 
in his government.  However, another group of MPs are gaining 
momentum on impeachment proceedings against President Yusuf.  While 
parliament bickers over the future of Somalia's two highest-ranking 
leaders, others like Mogadishu Mayor Mohammed Dheere have publicly 
welcomed the Addis agreement, stating that he is looking forward to 
upcoming elections in Mogadishu and the Banadir region.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
Support for the Addis Agreement 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On August 27, President Yusuf, Prime Minister Hassan 
Hussein and Speaker of Parliament Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur, arrived 
in Baidoa to brief parliament on the agreement they signed in Addis 
Ababa (Ref A).  President Yusuf addressed his supporters at the 
presidential building, while PM Hussein addressed the MPs, sharing 
his views at a local hotel.  Our contacts told us that separately, 
each camp agreed to support the Addis agreement. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Mohamed Dheere, Mayor of Mogadishu and Banadir Governor 
also publicly supported the agreement.  In an August 27 interview, 
Dheere said he welcomes whatever Somalia's leaders agree upon. 
Dheere said he is pleased that Banadir residents finally have been 
given the opportunity to elect their own administration.  He 
declared his intent to run in the upcoming elections but argued that 
he still remains in office until another leader is elected to 
replace him.  Dheere stated that no one can order another out of 
office without due process, adding that he is happy his detractors 
failed in their unceremonious bid to remove him. 
 
---------------------------- 
Parliament Jeers TFG Leaders 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Although MPs initially signaled President Yusuf and Prime 
Minister Hussein they supported the agreement, when the two leaders 
appeared before parliament on August 28 they faced a hostile crowd. 
There was immediately an effort by some MPs to debate the 
no-confidence measure that has been brewing over the last couple of 
weeks against the PM (Ref B).  Another group asked to hear the 
President and PM explain the Addis agreement.  The speaker put the 
issue to a vote -- 131 MPs voted to hear a discussion of the Addis 
agreement, 98 voted to debate the no-confidence vote. 
 
¶5.  (U) The Prime Minister began by reading the agreement and 
apologizing for his government's shortcomings.  He promised 
improvements in security and financial management, two areas over 
which parliament had pilloried him.  He praised President Yusuf. 
There was some heckling and booing among the MPs, but they cheered 
when the Prime Minister announced the addition of five ministers and 
warned that the international community would punish Djibouti 
agreement spoilers.  Nonetheless, during PM Hussein's presentation, 
the Speaker implored the MPs on two separate occasions to listen to 
him. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) When President Yusuf appeared before parliament, he was 
met with such a chorus of boos that he threatened to leave.  After 
the Speaker restored order, the President spoke, praising Prime 
Minister Hussein and the Addis agreement.  Yusuf expressed certainty 
that supporters of stability, peace, unity, nationhood and elections 
for Somalia will back the signed agreement.  MPs jeered when Yusuf 
said he'd been a man of war for 40 years, but was now committed to 
peace in Somalia. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) At one point in the speech, Yusuf may have shown a glimpse 
of the strain he's been under.  He intended to say he was doing all 
he could for Somalia, but said Puntland instead.  Of course, he 
immediately corrected himself, but MPs ridiculed him.  In a pointed 
response, Yusuf repeated his earlier threat that all who did not 
listen "will hear from me."  Yusuf singled out one MP, shouting, 
"Shut up ...there is no one here weaker than you! Keep quiet!" 
(Comment: Yusuf is 73 years old.  There's no doubt he's been under 
 
NAIROBI 00002053  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
considerable stress, especially in the last several weeks, and it's 
shown in his reportedly irascible dealings with the Ethiopians, 
Embassy Addis, and in his misstatement and outburst before 
parliament.  End Comment.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Parliament Debates No-Confidence Vote Against PM 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) On August 25, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Dalha revived 
MPs' efforts to force out Prime Minster Hussein by circulating a 12 
page diatribe of complaints against the PM.  To frustrate this 
latest effort, when he returned from Addis, Speaker Nur refused to 
formally reconvene the legislators.  Instead, Nur called conferences 
and committee meetings where he reportedly chided the MPs for 
wasting their time on bringing down the government even in the wake 
of the Addis agreement.  The Speaker also told MPs that the 
international community was furious with their no-confidence 
fixation and, urged on by SRSG Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah, was 
considering suspending MPs' salaries (Note: Several donors, most 
notably the EU, are supporting MPs with monthly stipends of $1,200. 
End Note.)  The Speaker's delays and threats apparently eroded 
support for the no-confidence measure. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Prime Minister Safe, President Vulnerable 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Sensing momentum had swung in the Prime Minister's favor, 
on September 1 the Speaker reconvened parliament and called not for 
a no-confidence vote, but for a resolution commending the Prime 
Minister.  MPs told us that the "confidence motion" passed 
overwhelmingly, 191 votes to 7 (with five abstentions).  While this 
vote for the moment ends parliament's recent moves against the PM, 
another faction may attempt to impeach the President.  Although 
impeachment is extremely difficult under parliament's rules, Yusuf's 
popularity is waning even in his most trusted circles. 
 
RANNEBERGER