VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #1300/01 2460843
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 020843Z SEP 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9870
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 8569
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0016

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001300 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: RUSSIA-GEORGIA SITUATION, U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN 
RELATIONS 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused August 
30 - September 2 news coverage on the continued investigation into 
former President Chen Shui-bian's money laundering case; on 
Saturday's mass rally targeting President Ma Ying-jeou's first one 
hundred days in office; and on Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo 
Fukuda's sudden resignation Wednesday.  Taiwan's defense needs and 
planning also caught the local media's attention, including various 
sources debating on whether Taiwan has ever proposed the letter of 
request (LOR) to the United States regarding its plan to procure 
F-16 C/D fighter jets.  In addition, the centrist, KMT-leaning 
"China Times" devoted its entire page four Monday to reporting on 
Taiwan's research and development of the indigenous Hsiung Feng IIE 
cruise missiles, the procurement of F-16 C/D fighter jets, and the 
Ma Ying-jeou Administration's allegedly poor defense planning. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed piece in the 
centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" discussed the war between Russia 
and Georgia and its implications for Taiwan.  The article concluded 
that under the circumstances that Russia-Georgia conflict would 
launch a new Cold War in Eurasia, China seems to have acquired a 
major position among Russia, the United States and NATO, which will 
naturally put Taiwan in a very unfavorable position.  With regard to 
the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, an editorial in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" expressed hope 
that both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates will 
pay more attention to the Taiwan issue and cross-Strait situation. 
A separate "Taipei Times" op-ed piece, written by Nat Bellocchi, 
former AIT Chairman and now a special adviser to the Liberty Times 
Group, asked if Taiwan is ready to engage the present in the wake of 
the Beijing Olympics.  End summary. 
 
¶3. Russia-Georgia Situation 
 
"Russia-Georgia War Will Involve Taiwan in a Calamity" 
 
Lai I-chung, an executive committee member at the Taiwan Thinktank, 
opined in a column in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" 
[circulation: 300,000] (8/31): 
 
"... In light of the fact that Russia has been acting proactively 
and taking full advantage of Washington being trapped by Iraq and 
anti-terrorism and NATO and the Europeans taking inconsistent 
diplomatic approaches, the reactions of the United States and NATO 
have been very weak.  But chances are slim that the United States 
and NATO will take no action at all.  Even if they are unable to 
help Georgia to regain its 'territorial integrity,' both Washington 
and NATO, at the request of some former Eastern European countries 
[sic, presumably former East Bloc], will seek to strengthen their 
cooperative ties with these countries and expand their strategic 
restraining capabilities toward Russia in the Outer-Caucasus and the 
Black Sea.  Such a development can be seen by Poland's rapid move in 
signing [an agreement to deploy] a battery of [American] missile 
interceptors in Poland and the United States' new expectations for 
Turkey. 
 
"Strategic competition between the two sides will only intensify, 
since Russia deems these areas as its own domain of power, on which 
no other country is allowed to encroach, while both Washington and 
NATO are worried that, because of the Russia-Georgia war, Russia 
intends to challenge the order in Eurasia in the post-Cold War era. 
Under such circumstances, strategic competition turning white-hot is 
likely to trigger a new Cold War in Eurasia, even if Russia does not 
have the ideology of expansionism. 
 
"Should a new Cold War occur in Eurasia, China will very likely 
acquire the central position, as in the Cold War era, of being able 
to alter the balance [of power] between the United States and 
Russia.  For Washington, it may possibly adopt either of the 
following two ways to deal with its strategic competition with 
Russia in Europe:  Namely, it will either resume its old way, as in 
the Cold War era, of joining hands with China to restrain Russia, or 
it will discuss with Russia the settlement each other's domain of 
power.  The former approach will result in Taiwan's marginalization, 
while the latter will damage the United States' strategic 
reputation, as Washington will tacitly allow Russia to do whatever 
it wants with Georgia, and thereby weaken Washington's regional 
stabilizing capability via its alliance with Asia.  No matter which 
way Washington adopts, China will be the biggest winner. ... 
 
"Given that the war between Russia and Georgia will likely launch a 
new cold war in Eurasia, it appears that China has occupied a more 
favorable strategic position.  Also, because the Olympic Games no 
longer pose any restrictions on China and the Beijing Olympics have 
added fuel to nationalism, there seems to be neither a need nor 
desire on China's part to act in concert with Taiwan.  Should Taiwan 
respond to such a development by tilting more rapidly toward China 
in exchange for zero threats from Beijing, it will only push Taiwan 
more hastily away from the strategic track of the United States, 
RELATIONS 
 
Japan and India and make the island become more isolated.  As a 
result, crisis in the Taiwan Strait will only arrive earlier!" 
 
¶4. U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "Taiwan and the US Presidential Race" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (8/30): 
 
"Cautious optimism is the appropriate response to the US Republican 
party sharpening its rhetoric in support of Taiwan as part of its 
presidential campaign.  For Taiwanese who watch US politics, 
optimism is a precious and fleeting commodity. Not so long ago, it 
was sensible to assume that the US military intervention in Iraq - 
and to a lesser extent Afghanistan - would become so repulsive for 
voting Americans that the proposal to support a small country such 
as Taiwan against the designs of the Chinese juggernaut in the event 
of conflict would be laughable. 
Adding to the gloom for pro-democracy Taiwanese was the swift 
retreat by US President George W. Bush, whose early, provocative 
comments supporting Taiwan gave way to the unenlightened China 
appeasement that defines the modus vivendi of the Department of 
State and much of US academia. ... 
 
"When China irritates people and governments, Taiwan gains. This is 
because the threat that Taiwan faces turns into a thing that others 
can appreciate - if only for a moment - in practical terms.  Now, by 
upping the ante on the political currency of cross-strait conflict, 
the camp of the Republicans' presumptive candidate, Senator John 
McCain, is asking Americans to think carefully about what China is 
and what it could do, and why Taiwan is inseparable from this issue. 
The message is abrupt and not without risk, but it is safe to say 
that the Democrats will respond not by defending China but plugging 
presidential candidate Obama's credentials to defend US interests 
should China become too obnoxious. ... 
 
"Either way, Taiwan and China are developing into a potential wedge 
issue for the Democrats. For Taiwan, this is not necessarily a good 
thing because the issue is not crucial to the vote, and because the 
tenor and content of the debate is completely outside Taiwan's 
control. And even if Taipei could do something to tilt public 
sentiment in the US, it is unlikely that President Ma Ying-jeou's 
administration would have the intelligence and ability to seize the 
initiative.  In his acceptance speech at the Democratic National 
Convention on Thursday, Obama warned that the US must learn to face 
the threats of the future and not be distracted by the mistakes of 
the past. Obama's 'threats' tend not to be states but extremism, 
environmental concerns and economic vulnerabilities, yet all of 
these concerns have a Chinese link. With luck, the Republicans' move 
to turn this into a point of debate will allow more truths about 
China, Taiwan and their stateside supporters to be aired before the 
next president takes his post.' 
 
B) "Is Taiwan Prepared to Engage the Present?" 
 
Nat Bellocchi, former AIT chairman and now a special adviser to the 
Liberty Times Group, opined in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" (8/31): 
 
"... Ma supports having Taiwan's allies enter into economic and 
cultural relations with China and he will seek participation in 16 
UN agencies. Many see these and other issues - suggesting a 
comprehensive economic cooperation agreement with China similar to 
Hong Kong's; seeking UN observer status; and suggesting name 
flexibility - as undermining Taiwan's sovereignty. ... 
While all this might be a concern for Beijing, Taiwan will be busy 
trying to move closer to China. 
 
"At the same time, Taiwan is trying to rekindle US interest. That is 
difficult with the US focused on the election race, which will 
produce a new government in about five months. Its relations with a 
growing China will be more difficult than before. Its problems in 
the Middle East will not end, while recent tensions with Russia over 
Georgia are causing it more headaches.  This is a time to go over 
what has been going on. Issues both at home and abroad are changing. 
Are we ready?" 
 
WANG