VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUNV #0461/01 2311531
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 181531Z AUG 08
FM USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8327
INFO RUEHTA/AMEMBASSY ASTANA PRIORITY 0044
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 0185
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0203
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0292

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000461 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR IO/T AND ISN/RA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2018 
TAGS: PARM KNNP PREL AORC IAEA KZ AF SY IR
SUBJECT: IAEA/BOG:  THREE, POSSIBLY FOUR, MESA SEAT 
CONTENDERS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (SBU)  Summary: Iran announced its candidacy for an IAEA 
Board of Governors seat 2008-2010 during a regional group 
meeting August 14 that also addressed the Syrian and Afghan 
candidacies.  Arab members of the Middle East/South Asia 
(MESA) group, nine of the current 15 members, continued to 
back Syria in accordance with a March 2008 Arab League Summit 
decision.  In response to observations by Pakistan and others 
that Syria had submitted its candidacy early, in January, the 
Indian Chair clarified, at Afghanistan's request, that there 
was no deadline for submission of candidacies. 
 
¶2.  (C)  Given the composition of the group and the Indian 
Chair's neutral stance, it was unsurprising that no one 
backed Afghanistan.  Afghanistan's Charge believes that Iran 
and Syria orchestrated Iran's play.  However, it is also 
possible that Iran saw the contested field as an opportunity 
to make an improbable run for the Board in the same way it 
has recently trumpeted its improbable candidacy for the UNSC. 
 Indian, Kazakh and other contacts provide us conflicting 
views on Kazakhstan's eligibility and viability as  MESA 
candidate.  Afghanistan may not be able to win but its 
candidacy is keeping the game open, perhaps for another state 
to challenge Syria successfully.  End summary 
 
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Indian Chair Offers Advise for Afghanistan 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  During a conversation with Ambassador Schulte on 
August 16, Indian Ambassador Kumar confirmed that Iran 
submitted its candidacy for the Board at the August 14 MESA 
meeting.  According to Kumar, Iran argued that it had not had 
the opportunity to serve on the Board in recent years.  Kumar 
now expects a lot of "shadow-boxing" in Vienna, demarches in 
capitals, and a lot of brinksmanship before the September 
General Conference that will decide Board composition. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Kumar said he believed the MESA candidacy will go to 
a vote at the General Conference, although there could be a 
chance of a last-minute withdrawal by Syria if it expects a 
resounding defeat.  As MESA chair, Kumar does not want to 
advise the Afghan Charge, who he characterizes as young and 
ambitious, but he recommended that the USG advise Afghanistan 
it must be hardened for a tough flight to the end, show that 
its candidacy is serious and not a last-minute idea (neither 
of the ambitious Charge's nor USG), demonstrate that the 
candidacy has full backing in Kabul, and start demarching in 
capitals and not just Vienna. 
 
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But is There Still a Chance for Kazakhstan? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  In a separate August 18 conversation with Ambassador 
Schulte, Kazakh Ambassador Abdrakhmanov said his country's 
candidacy for the MESA seat depended on Indian Ambassador 
Kumar, who, the Kazakh asserted, had promised to take all 
"formal and informal" steps to bring Kazakhstan into MESA. 
Abdrakhmanov said he would submit a formal application to 
MESA if Kumar advised him this was necessary, or he would 
proceed directly to submit Kazakhstan's Board candidacy if 
Kumar advised that Kazakhstan were accepted into MESA without 
a formal application.  Abdrakhmanov thinks MESA would welcome 
Kazakhstan as a member, with the possible exception of Syria, 
which might argue that Kazakhstan should be a part of the 
Eastern European group.  Abdrakhmanov expected Kumar to 
contact him August 18 or 19 with further recommendations. 
 
 ¶6.  (C)  Ambassador Kumar also noted that he found it highly 
unlikely that MESA would agree to admit Kazakhstan at this 
point because, he thought, the Arab League would oppose 
competition for the Syrian candidacy, and Pakistan would 
oppose competition for its candidacy next year.  Kumar 
continued that, "this (excluding Kazakhstan from MESA) is one 
issue on which there would be unanimous agreement." 
 
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Comment 
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¶7.  (C)  We have succeeded in the short-term goal of 
 
derailing Syria's intent to ride the Arab consensus to an 
uncontested election to the Board.  There remains confusion 
over Kazakh membership in MESA.  If the MESA seat comes to a 
vote in the General Conference, which seems increasingly 
likely, votes for Iran or Syria could potentially cancel one 
another out.  It is not at all clear that Afghanistan could 
win in a straight-up election, but its candidacy serves for 
now to keep the door open for another potential candidate to 
challenge Syria for the seat either within MESA or in a GC 
vote among regional candidates. 
SCHULTE