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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAM #2490/01 2390809
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260809Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3412
INFO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 6060
RUEHLB/AMEMBASSY BEIRUT 2907
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 3769
RUEHDM/AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS 3964
RUEHKU/AMEMBASSY KUWAIT 0918
RUEHMK/AMEMBASSY MANAMA 0690
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1535
RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH 2007
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 1313
RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH 0824
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 5148
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC

UNCLAS AMMAN 002490 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, EEB 
STATE PASS TO EX-IM BANK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECPS EINV TINT JO
SUBJECT: PLANS FOR INCREASING COMPETITION IN JORDAN'S MOBILE PHONE 
MARKET FACE INCUMBENT RESISTANCE 
 
REF:  07 AMMAN 3770 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The number of mobile phone subscribers in Jordan 
has risen to 4.8 million and represents an 84% penetration rate with 
possible room for growth.  Jordan is currently served by four 
incumbent providers who view amenities as new ways to generate 
revenue.  The Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC) is 
seeking ways to improve competition and services, but has faced 
significant incumbent resistance.  TRC recently approved Jordan's 
first Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO), i2, but legal and 
business challenges have slowed its launch.  Incumbent operators 
have also criticized TRC's plans to open the auction of 3G (the 
third generation of mobile phone standards and technology) licenses 
and spectrum to all qualified bidders, not just incumbents.  In 
addition to its efforts to improve services, TRC has heightened its 
regulatory role and initiated a program to register owner 
information for all mobile phones in Jordan.  End Summary. 
 
Current Mobile Market:  There's Revenue in Ring Tones 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Afram Jamil, acting Secretary General of the Ministry of 
Information and Communications Technology (MOICT), reported that 
there were 4.8 million mobile phone subscriptions at the end of 2007 
in Jordan, which equals an 84% penetration rate.  This represents a 
21.4% growth in subscribers since 2006.  Total revenues from 
telecommunications were 920 million JD in 2007, an increase of 9.8% 
over 2006.  Mohammed Khasawneh, a telecommunications consultant 
funded by the EU, explained that while Jordan's market is maturing, 
it is not necessary saturated at 84% which he compared to the Gulf 
states where penetration rates are well over 100%. 
 
¶3. (SBU) There are currently four cellular providers operating in 
Jordan: Zain (38% market share), Orange (33%), Umniah (26%), and 
Xpress (3%).  Telecommunications experts observe that customer 
acquisition rates have flattened with prices continuing to fall 
slightly, but mobile revenues however, continue to grow because of 
increased use.  Ibrahim Akinci, Marketing Director of Zain, said 
Zain's revenue growth is now being driven by additional services, 
such as ring tones, which account for 10% of revenues.  Akinci also 
explained that 90% of his customers use pre-paid phone cards and 
only 10% have contracts and monthly billing. 
 
MVNO Comes Slowly to Jordan 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) The Arab Advisors Group has described Jordan as the most open 
mobile phone market in the Middle East.  TRC officials are eager to 
open the market further and foster the introduction of new products. 
 TRC issued in September 2007, its first set of guidelines on the 
entrance of MVNOs, mobile service providers that have neither their 
own radio spectrum, nor a complete mobile phone infrastructure. 
Note:  MVNOs provide service by entering into agreements with 
existing operators and reselling services.  Typically, existing 
operators provide technical services and the MVNO focuses on 
customer care and marketing.  Globally, MVNOs usually capture 8-20% 
of mobile subscribers by focusing on small market segments.  End 
Note.  For Jordan, MVNO agreements would likely reduce prices 
slightly and improve customer service, particularly for small 
segments such as Philippine domestic workers, by increasing 
competition further. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Al-Ansari Al-Mashagbah, Director of the Regulatory 
Department of TRC, lamented that the process to allow MVNOs in 
Jordan has been difficult and slow.  He said that TRC's initial 
guidelines, which described a role for TRC in helping MVNOs and 
operators reach agreements, were successfully challenged in the 
courts by two incumbent service providers.  TRC released on August 
10, an information memorandum and a revised regulatory decision 
which Al-Mashagbah believes addresses the concerns raised in the 
court case.  The revised decision says that companies wishing to act 
as an MVNO require individual licenses approved by TRC, and further 
states that network operators will be required to offer network 
capacity on a transparent and non-discriminatory basis to new MVNOs. 
 It is unknown when MVNOs will begin reselling mobile phone service 
in Jordan.  TRC has approved one MVNO, i2 from Saudi Arabia, and 
 
expects to approve others but thus far no MVNO has a business 
agreement with an incumbent operator. 
 
TRC Announces to Some Opposition Plans for 3G Licenses 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) TRC hosted a late June conference to begin the comment 
period for the 3G license auction process.  3G technology enables 
network operators to offer advanced services, such as video calls 
and broadband wireless data, and to use spectrum more efficiently. 
TRC and MoICT officials were explicit that the GOJ, while welcoming 
any businesses interested in providing 3G services, will not 
guarantee business model success.  TRC's Director of Communications 
Rawa Mirza predicted that TRC would proceed with the EU consultant's 
recommendations and offer two 15-year licenses in 2008, with 
possible additional auctions in 2009.  One license would only cover 
3G and would presumably be bid upon by any (or all) of the three 
incumbent GSM operators.  A second license would be for 2G and 3G 
and could be bid upon by a new operator, or by Xpress, the smallest 
provider in Jordan, which does not currently operate using GSM. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Elaborating on TRC plans to allow all interested parties to 
bid on the licenses, Khasawneh explained to conference attendees 
that auctions which only include incumbents are unheard of in open 
telecommunications markets.  Nevertheless, several incumbents spoke 
angrily about opening the process to companies not currently 
operating in Jordan and Xpress's CEO Marwan Juma was the most 
vehement.  Xpress offers push-to-talk (walkie-talkie) mobile service 
and in 2004, it received a $54 million loan guarantee from the U.S. 
Export-Import Bank to finance construction of a Motorola integrated 
digital enhanced network (iDEN).  Since then, customer acquisition 
has been slow and Juma has told TRC and the Embassy that without a 
2G/GSM license and associated spectrum, Xpress will go out of 
business.  TRC's position is that Xpress is free to participate in 
the 2G/3G auction, but that a license and spectrum will not be 
provided for free.  Juma counters that since the EU consultants said 
that the market could handle a fourth operator, the current 
restriction on Xpress' license should be removed and he should be 
allowed to acquire frequency in a manner similar to the other three 
operators. 
 
Unregistered Mobile Phones Being Disconnected 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) This spring, TRC added a requirement that all cell phone 
subscribers must register their Subscriber Identification Module 
(SIM) cards with their service providers before May 31 or face 
disconnection.  Since March, all new prepaid mobile SIM cards have 
been registered with official identification.  In making the change, 
TRC argued in local press that registration will increase safety 
especially given large numbers harassment cases in 2006.  In 
private, government and corporate officials said national security 
was another motivation. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Mirza said that 900,000 lines are still unregistered.  She 
agreed the operators have made good progress in the registration and 
have complied with the disconnections but that not all independent 
retailers are collecting the information.  Akinci believes, based on 
seasonal call patterns, that many of the unregistered customers are 
Jordanians working abroad who own a Jordanian phone for the time 
they are in Jordan. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Across areas, TRC continues to seek ways to increase 
competition in telecommunications.  It has been most successful in 
mobile phones, which are the most used telecommunication service. 
In addition to inviting MVNOs and additional providers, TRC has also 
worked to allow phone number portability which would increase 
competition by allowing customers to keep their phone numbers when 
they switch providers.  TRC, however, has faced significant 
incumbent push-back at each step - not just from Jordan's legacy 
monopoly Orange/Jordan Telecom Group but also from relative 
newcomers Zain and Umniah.  TRC's strength (or lack thereof) will be 
most evident in watching the development of the broadband market, 
 
which continues to be overwhelmingly dominated by Orange.  If TRC 
has sufficient muscle, other players will enter the market and 
provide alternate technologies and international access. 
 
Visit Amman's Classified Website at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman 
 
BEECROFT