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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2018 
TAGS: PGOV ECON EFIN JA
SUBJECT: YAMAGUCHI ELECTION FAILS TO SHAKE FUKUDA'S RESOLVE 
 
REF: A. FUKUOKA 0077 
 
     ¶B. TOKYO 1148 
     ¶C. TOKYO 1076 
 
Classified By: Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer, reasons 1.4(b)(d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  The April 27 Lower House by-election to fill 
a vacant seat in the Yamaguchi 2 district, once widely touted 
as a bellwether for the future of the Fukuda administration, 
has failed to live up to its advance billing.  With so much 
of the campaigning focused on national issues, such as the 
provisional gasoline tax, pensions, and health care, the 
results were widely expected to give the winning side 
something of a mandate.  In reality, very little has changed 
over the last three days.  No one expected the Prime Minister 
to take any drastic steps, win or lose, but PM Fukuda appears 
to have emerged unfazed by the electoral loss.  In the four 
days since the election, he has fulfilled his pledge to use 
his majority in the Lower House to re-instate the provisional 
gasoline and other road-related taxes and stated his 
intention to do so again on May 12 or 13 with reference to a 
bill to restore construction earmarks for certain 
road-related tax revenue.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Some Embassy contacts and media commentators had 
predicted that a loss for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party 
(LDP)-Komeito coalition in Yamaguchi would force Fukuda to 
reconsider his strategy for passing key tax-related 
legislation through the Diet by using a two-thirds majority 
re-vote in the Lower House.  Instead, he has apologized 
profusely to the public for the additional tax burden during 
a time of rising prices and patiently explained the economics 
behind his decision to proceed with the second vote.  He has 
benefited in this from the prominent media coverage given to 
prefectural governments' expressions of gratitude for the 
restoration of needed revenues.   He is fortunate, too, that 
the election and the Lower House re-vote have both taken 
place during Japan's traditional "Golden Week" holiday, when 
much of the country is on vacation.  One Consulate Fukuoka 
contact noted that the LDP had never expected to win in 
Yamaguchi, perhaps cushioning the blow.  Seemingly empowered 
by the lack of any particular pressure to change his tactics 
or step down, and the knowledge that there is no legal 
procedure to force him to do either, Fukuda has publicly 
reaffirmed his intention to keep his administration intact 
through the July G-8 Summit. 
 
¶3. (C) Others had argued that a win would embolden the main 
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to pass a censure 
motion in the Upper House, a non-binding and untested measure 
intended to increase the pressure on Fukuda to step down. 
Instead, the DPJ has backed down from its original plan to 
use the censure motion after the gasoline tax vote, and is 
reportedly growing more reluctant to use it in response to a 
Lower House override vote on the bill governing earmarks 
later this month either.  This would mark at least the fifth 
time that the DPJ has failed to follow through on a 
threatened censure motion since becoming the party with the 
most seats in the Upper House in July 2007.  The DPJ has 
gained little ground by criticizing Fukuda for using 
"heavy-handed" tactics in pushing the reinstatement of the 
provisional gasoline and other road-related taxes.  They have 
also suffered from their inability to gain consensus within 
their own party over the measure, or to come up with a viable 
counterproposal after the Prime Minister met them halfway by 
agreeing to end earmarks for road construction by FY2009. 
 
¶4. (C) For many political observers, the significance of the 
Yamaguchi by-election, the first national-level election 
contested under Fukuda's leadership, spoke more to the view 
that the electorate may be increasingly swayed by issues 
rather than ideological or party differences.  What weighed 
most heavily during the campaign was not party loyalty but 
national issues, such as re-imposition of the gasoline and 
other road-related taxes, pension problems, and healthcare, 
including the unfortunately-timed increase in pension 
deductions to fund medical insurance for those over 75.  The 
DPJ has stridently opposed the LDP on these issues, but has 
 
TOKYO 00001197  002 OF 002 
 
 
offered little in the way of a policy response.  Exit polls, 
not surprisingly, showed a majority of respondents opposed 
re-instating the gasoline tax, without regard to the lack of 
a DPJ plan for making up the lost revenue at the local level. 
 
 
¶5. (C) More importantly for the next general election, 
however, over 70 percent of unaffiliated voters chose the 
DPJ's Hiraoka, sealing his victory.  Hiraoka also garnered 
almost a quarter of LDP votes, in addition to nearly 95 
percent of his own DPJ supporters, beating Yamamoto by a 
score of 116,348 votes to 94,404.  Another significant factor 
was the decision by the Japan Communist Party (JCP) to forego 
a candidate, a policy that they expect to follow in the next 
general election as well for districts where they have 
traditionally received fewer than eight percent of the vote. 
"The JCP vote did us in.  There was no way for Yamamoto to 
win," the LDP's Seishiro Eto told the Embassy on May 1. 
Close to 85 percent of JCP supporters voted for the DPJ 
candidate in the Yamaguchi race, a worrying trend for the LDP 
and Komeito, and a good reason for them to keep Fukuda in 
place, despite his steadily falling cabinet support rate, for 
as long as possible. 
SCHIEFFER