VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0409/01 1301742
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091742Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6310
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE WHA/CAR FOR TILGHMAN INL/LP FOR BOZZOLO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC SOCI PINR KHUM KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: VETERAN OPPOSITION PARTY ORGANIZER 
PREDICTS GENERAL ELECTIONS IN JULY; PM GOLDING AWAITS 
DECISION OF APPEALS COURT BEFORE DETERMINING COURSE 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 245 (191809Z MAR 08) 
 
     ¶B. KINGSTON 364 (291558Z APR 08) 
     ¶C. 07 KINGSTON 1336 (042044Z SEP 07) 
     ¶D. KINGSTON 396 (061844Z MAY 08) 
 
Classified By: Charge James T. Heg for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
Summary and Analysis 
-------------------- 
 
¶1. (C)  Dave Anderson, the former Special Advisor to 
ex-Minister of National Security Peter Phillips and a veteran 
People's National Party (PNP) political organizer: 
 
(A) predicts that Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding will call 
a snap general election in July, and that his ruling Jamaica 
Labour Party (JLP) will pick up at least four more seats in 
Parliament -- after which he will reshuffle his Cabinet, to 
include naming a new Speaker of the House and Minster of 
National Security; 
 
(B) confirms widely held suspicions that the opposition 
People's National Party (PNP) is in disarray (reftel A), and 
believes that Phillips, the PNP's number two, will wait until 
September or later to challenge Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) 
for leadership of the party. 
 
2.(C)  Because Golding cannot afford further erosion of the 
JLP's slim parliamentary majority, he effectively has drawn a 
line in the sand: whether Jamaica faces a series of 
by-elections in coming months or, alternatively, the PM calls 
a snap general election, may well depend on an impending 
ruling by the Appeals Court as to whether to award the 
contested Portland Western seat to a PNP candidate without 
(as directed by a lower court) holding a by-election (reftel 
B).  Over a private luncheon on May 8, UK High Commissioner 
David Cresswell told Charge that senior JLP officials have 
told him that PM Golding has not yet made a decision 
regarding snap elections. 
End Summary and Analysis. 
 
Background on Anderson 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Anderson, who ran unsuccessfully for parliament as a 
PNP candidate years ago, remains active as a party organizer. 
 In addition to his former role as Special Advisor to the 
ex-Minister of National Security, Anderson acted as Phillips' 
campaign manager in last year's grueling fight between the 
PNP and JLP.  Anderson now has left the Ministry, as the 
current Minister of National Security, Derrick Smith, 
considered him too political.  Although removed from the 
Ministry's day-to-day activities, he keeps in close contact 
with the current Permanent Secretary Gilbert Scott, and with 
his own successor, Errol Strong.  Although PNP through and 
through, he also has good contacts within the JLP, and in the 
past his information about JLP strategy has been spot on. 
Anderson shared his views with NAS Director over a private 
luncheon on May 7. 
 
Snap General Election? 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Anderson predicted a General Election in July.  He 
believes that it is almost assured that the ruling JLP will 
win, and will pick up any seats that were decided in the last 
election by 200 or fewer votes, "with the exception of Peter 
Bunting's constituency."  Bunting won't lose, according to 
Anderson, because he is too well organized and can finance 
his own race.  For the rest of the PNP candidates, things 
don't look so promising.  Anderson confirmed that the PNP is 
in disarray.  The struggle for leadership of the party 
continued between ex-Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and 
Phillips.  Although Phillips' supporters are urging him to 
push Simpson Miller out of office before the next general 
election, Anderson thinks Phillips will continue to bide his 
time.  According to Anderson, "if you are going to pick a 
fight like this one, you have to be sure that you will win." 
Despite its loss to the JLP in September 2007, and despite 
the fact that the PNP is viewed as being corrupt and 
ineffective at governing, Simpson Miller still has support 
among the PNP faithful.  Phillips' calculus is to let Simpson 
Miller lose another election in July, and then take over the 
party in September 2008, at the next party congress. 
Phillips is in no hurry, says Anderson, because they both 
believe that the PNP will be out of power for at least two 
election cycles (i.e., a decade). 
 
 
Cabinet Reshuffle after the next election Likely 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶5. (C)  According to Anderson, Golding's Cabinet as 
originally planned looked very different from the current 
reality; key people the PM had wanted to turn to had lost 
their seats in the September, 2007 election.  In the event, 
the Cabinet's configuration was the result of post-election 
dirty blackmail by Michael Henry, the current Minister of 
Transport and Works.  According to Anderson, prior to last 
year's election, Henry had made a secret deal with the PNP to 
cross the aisle if there were a tie, which would have 
resulted in a PNP majority.  When the JLP won by 32-28 seats 
(reftel C), Henry was "down but not out."  After the dust 
settled and Golding was forming his government, he originally 
offered Henry the position of Speaker of the House.  Henry 
refused, and formed an unholy alliance with Pearnel Charles 
(current Minister of Labor and Social Security) and Olivia 
"Babsy" Grange (current Minister of Information, Culture, 
Youth & Sports).  They all went to Golding and threatened to 
cross the aisle unless they got ministerial-level positions. 
Golding was left with no choice but to appoint them to 
ministries, leaving the critical position of Speaker of the 
House open, which ended up going to Delroy Chuck.  Anderson 
is sure that if Golding can win a more comfortable margin in 
the next election he will sweep Henry, Grange, and Charles 
out of the Cabinet and bring Chuck back as a Minister -- 
possibly Minister of National Security. 
 
¶6. (C) Derrick Smith, the current Minister of National 
Security, has been out since April 7 (reftel D) recovering 
from surgery (to have several toes amputated after gangrene 
had set in as a complication of severe diabetes).  Anderson 
believes that Golding will use the next election and Smith's 
failing health as grounds for shifting Smith from National 
Security to another less taxing ministry; Golding might ask 
Chuck to replace Smith. 
 
Staff Changes underway at Ministry of National Security 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶7. (C) Anderson confirmed that the current Permanent 
Secretary (PS) of the Ministry of National Security, Gilbert 
Scott, is leaving in November 2008 when his contract expires 
(reftel C).  Scott, who wants to overlap at least three 
months with his successor, already is hand picking potential 
candidates for the Minister's consideration.  The leading 
candidate for the job is Major Richard Reese, the 
Commissioner of Corrections.  Anderson also knows that the 
position is coveted by Ann Marie Barnes, current Sr. Advisor 
for Policy.  Barnes has stated that she plans to leave the 
Ministry in September (reftel C).  Reese and Barnes do not 
get along, so his appointment would likely ensure her 
departure. 
 
Analysis: Impending Appeals Court ruling may prove pivotal 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
8.(C)  In the wake of a recent court ruling disqualifying JLP 
Member of Parliament (MP) for Portland Western Daryl Vaz, and 
the subsequent appeal of the court's ruling by the PNP 
runner-up Abe Dabdoub, who seeks to be awarded the seat 
without having to face a by-election (reftel B), PM Golding 
has gone on record as saying that he will not allow MPs to be 
seated solely as a result of court rulings -- implying that, 
if the Appeals Court rules in Dabdoub's favor, the PM then 
would be forced to call a snap general election.  Because 
Golding cannot afford further erosion of the JLP's slim 
parliamentary majority, he effectively has drawn a line in 
the sand: whether Jamaica now faces a series of by-elections 
or, alternatively, a snap general election, may well depend 
on the impending ruling by the Appeals Court. 
 
9.(C) If a snap general election is called, Anderson's 
prediction that the ruling JLP would gain those seats which 
had been won or lost by 200 or fewer votes in the 2007 
election would amount to less than he seems to realize: only 
four (4) seats fall into that category, and Peter Bunting's 
Central Manchester seat (won by 207) is not among them. 
Eight (8) seats were won/lost by 900 or fewer votes, and post 
believes that these could go to either party.  Good voter 
turn-out would favor the ruling JLP; conversely, voter 
fatigue and apathy would work to the advantage of the 
opposition PNP, which has a larger base of hard-core 
loyalists who will turn out to vote under any circumstances. 
Many observers, including University of the West Indies 
Sociologist Dr. Ian Boxhill, recently have alluded to the 
possibility of voter apathy, and predict a low turnout.  Over 
 
 
a private luncheon on May 8, UK High Commissioner David 
Cresswell told Charge that senior JLP officials had told him 
confidentially that PM Golding had not yet made a decision 
regarding a snap general election. 
HEG