VZCZCXRO4806
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDU RUEHKUK RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0669/01 1221524
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011524Z MAY 08  ZDK PER NUMEROUS REQUESTS
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0703
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000669 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: MANSOUR KHALID ON SPLM PREPARATIONS FOR PARTY 
CONVENTION 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00000669  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Everything is on track for the SPLM convention to go 
forward May 10, GOS Presidential Advisor and prominent SPLM 
northerner Dr. Mansour Khalid told CDA and polchief April 29. 
 Khalid expects full support for Salva Kiir as Chairman of 
the party as "no one would dare stand against him."  Khalid 
said Pagan Amun has a good chance of retaining his post as 
*Secretary* General of the party, although Nhial Deng Nhial and 
Abdel Aziz Helou may also be strong candidates.  Khalid 
expressed concern about GOSS Vice President Riek Machar as a 
possible spoiler, describing him as "a man in a hurry." 
Khalid is also worried about the armed militias of Paulino 
Matip and to a lesser extent Riek Machar (both former Nuer 
warlords now ostensibly part of the SPLM/SPLA).  Khalid said 
Paulino may have as many as 1000 armed bodyguards in Juba, 
and didn't discount that it may have been these soldiers who 
perpetrated the armed robberies against INGOs over the last 
two months. Machar's personal force is smaller, in the 
hundreds of men. 
 
SPLM CONVENTION 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Despite rumors that the SPLM convention will be 
postponed, Khalid insisted that it will go forward as planned 
on May 10 in Juba.  "Everyone is ready" and all preparations 
are on track, said Khalid.  He confidently predicted that the 
party will support President Kiir to continue as head of the 
SPLM, as "no one would dare stand against him."  Khalid said 
current SPLM Secretary General and Minister of Cabinet 
Affairs Pagan Amun would likely be re-elected, but 
acknowledged there is a chance that someone else in the party 
may unseat him.  Khalid pointed to battle-hardened commanders 
and well-known SPLM figures who have recently returned to 
Sudan such as Nhial Deng Nhial and Abdel Aziz Helou as 
possible candidates, but noted that although Nhial Deng is an 
"incorruptible" intellectual he is not a good communicator. 
Khalid said that once the Secretary General is identified, 
the next task will be to identify a chairman of the SPLM 
Political Bureau, who will then propose the names of other 
members of the bureau.  (Note: From other sources, we have 
heard that the convention will also produce a new secretary 
general for each state, and that southern state governors may 
lose their current dual role as state-level SPLM secretary 
general. End note.) 
 
SPOILERS 
-------- 
 
¶3. (C) Khalid identified Nuer leader and current GOSS Vice 
President, the scheming Riek Machar and former GNU Foreign 
Minister and SPLM turncoat Lam Akol as possible spoilers, but 
said for now their ability to cause problems is limited. 
Khalid said that during the recent turmoil over whether to 
proceed with the census in the South, the only minister who 
stood with Riek against Kiir was Riek's own wife Angelina 
Teny (GNU Minister of State for Energy and Mines).  "Riek is 
a man in a hurry," observed Khalid, "but he is going to have 
to wait his turn."  However Khalid expressed concern about 
the number of weapons in Juba and suggested that the "private 
armies" of Riek Machar and Paulino Matip (former SSDF 
commander now incorporated into the SPLA) should be disarmed. 
 "Riek is playing on Paulino," said Khalid, and this has 
resulted not just in an increase in crime and instability in 
Juba, but intrigue and instability in the oil-rich Nuer 
heartland of Unity and Upper Nile states.  Khalid said 
Paulino has a personal militia of at least 1000 men in Juba, 
and did not discount that the recent crime wave of armed 
robberies, carried out by gangs of armed men, were 
perpetrated by Paulino's militia. 
 
KHARTOUM DYNAMICS 
----------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Khalid said that, ironically, the only person in the 
GNU who currently appreciates the role of the SPLM is Ahmed 
Harun (ICC indictee and current State Minister of 
Humanitarian Affairs).  Khalid said Harun had engaged 
sincerely on Abyei and other issues.  Khalid described 
Presidential Advisor Dr. Mustafa Osman Ismail as "cynical" 
 
KHARTOUM 00000669  002 OF 002 
 
 
and discounted Vice President Taha as being "kept out of the 
picture."  However, he said Taha has not given up hope of 
undermining President Al-Bashir's hold on the military and on 
the NCP's own armed militia.  "He is working on these people" 
by appealing to the religious side of the regime.  Khalid 
said the regime is still nervous about opposition Popular 
Congress Party leader Hassan al Turabi, who originally 
organized the National Islamic Front movement (the foundation 
of the NCP) and still appeals to the true believers in the 
NCP.  Khalid observed that all of the oil money flowing into 
Khartoum had done nothing to consolidate the regime and had 
only provided financing for pay-offs. 
 
ELECTIONS 
--------- 
 
¶5. (C) When asked how committed the SPLM is to elections, 
Khalid did not answer directly. He noted that the SPLM is 
beyond challenge in the South and could form strong national 
alliances with other marginalized groups such as the Beja in 
the East, or even with middle of the road parties such as the 
DUP (Mirghani faction).  However, he said an alliance with 
both is not possible because the Beja are against the 
Khatemia Sufi sect (from which DUP/Mirghani hails).  Khalid 
predicted that Salva Kiir will not run for President.  "The 
CPA was created with John Garang in mind" and Salva is not 
comfortable with northern politics, where he feels "like an 
alien."  Unlike Kiir who spends all of his time in 
Juba where he is more comfortable, Garang could direct things 
in the South from Khartoum and knew how to interact with 
northern political parties.  On a positive note, Khalid 
predicted that if Salva gets a second term as GOSS President, 
he is unlikely to stay on beyond that and "is not going to 
become a Mugabe, or even a Museveni."  CDA pointed out all of 
the positive things that Kiir hasQQAQvide and rule policies of the North 
or the divisive intrigues of some in the SPLM like Riek. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) A former Foreign Minister who threw in his lot with 
John Garang's rebels, Khalid's observations about 
destabilizing elements in the South such as Riek Machar and 
Paulino Matip are familiar and credible.  Other observers 
have suggested that Paulino Matip's ill-disciplined militia 
may be responsible for the recent and very disturbing series 
of armed robberies by groups of up to twenty men in Juba.  If 
this is true, the GOSS will need to act swiftly to bring 
justice to those responsible, contain this serious security 
threat (not just for NGOs, but also for the regime) and 
either better integrate these soldiers into the SPLA or 
disarm them.  Khalid's comments regarding the SPLM convention 
appear to be on the mark, but there are sure to be some 
surprises and we don't discount that there may be a 
significant adjustment in the SPLM leadership coming out of 
the convention. He is one of many senior SPLM officials 
uncomfortable about elections that could be easily 
manipulated by the NCP. 
FERNANDEZ