VZCZCXRO9030
OO RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #0463/01 1181314
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 271314Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5741
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000463 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S, AF/FO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI ZA
SUBJECT: CONSULTATIONS WITH MWANAWASA ON NEXT STEPS 
 
REF: LUANDA 331 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
 ¶1. (C) Summary.  In a meeting with President Mwanawasa, A/S 
Frazer and NSC Senior Director Pittman called upon the 
Southern African Development Community (SADC) to increase its 
pressure on President Mugabe, offer its protection to 
Tsvangirai, and send a delegation of senior statesmen to 
 
SIPDIS 
Harare.  They drew attention to gross instances of human 
rights abuse in Zimbabwe, and emphasized the need for 
immediate action.  President Mwanawasa said that although 
SADC sanctions against President Mugabe would be the most 
effective tool, this solution would not be supported by many 
of his SADC counterparts.  He said he was prepared to send a 
committee of SADC leaders to entreat Mugabe, as well as a 
delegation of former heads of state.  He indicated strong 
support for a government of national unity, which he said 
might be the only way forward.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) On April 26, A/S Frazer and NSC Senior Director 
Pittman discussed the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe 
with President Mwanawasa, along with Foreign Minister Pande, 
Presidential Minister Cecil Holmes, and other senior 
advisors.  A/S Frazer acknowledged President Mwanawasa's 
positive role in addressing issues in Zimbabwe through his 
position as SADC Chair and conveyed a letter from President 
Bush expressing appreciation for the Zambian President's 
leadership.  A/S Frazer shared USG concerns about the delay 
in releasing election results and the escalating violence. 
She also suggested that the environment in Zimbabwe no longer 
provides for free and fair elections, in case of a run-off. 
 
¶3. (C) President Mwanawasa said that events in Zimbabwe show 
"extreme disregard for the rule of law and ... are an 
embarrassment to the region."  President Mwanawasa pointed to 
the violation of SADC election protocols, and said there is 
no excuse for delays in releasing the election results. 
Referring to the SADC emergency summit on April 12 in Lusaka, 
and a subsequent heads of state summit on development in 
Mauritius on April 19, President Mwanawasa said that he had 
hoped that after these "lively" meetings, "the dissent that 
was expressed by SADC countries would send a message" to 
President Mugabe.  President Mwanawasa pointed to SADC 
sanctions--and suspension of SADC membership--as the ideal 
instrument to pressure Mugabe to step down, but said that 
this initiative was unlikely to be supported by a majority of 
SADC member states.  He expressed regret that some SADC 
leaders continue to feel sympathetic to Mugabe. 
 
¶4. (C) Echoing A/S Frazer's remarks and referring to the vote 
re-counts and tabulations, President Mwanawasa said "I am not 
so sure how credible the results will be, once they are 
released."  In the event of a run-off, he said that an 
environment probably does not exist for free and fair 
elections.  He conveyed reports of electoral abuse, 
intimidation, and violence.  He opined that many Zimbabweans 
would not come out to vote in a run-off, or would not vote 
according to their conscience. 
 
¶5. (C) Regarding President Mbeki's role as SADC mediator on 
Zimbabwe, President Mwanawasa related a recent conversation 
in which President Mbeki claimed that he had been 
misunderstood when he said that Zimbabwe was not in a crisis. 
 President Mwanawasa said that he was prepared to give the 
South African President the benefit of the doubt, 
particularly as President Mbeki had played a useful role in 
ensuring, originally, the peaceful conduct of Zimbabwe's 
national elections.  He suggested, however, that President 
Mbeki's effectiveness may be limited now that the Movement 
for Democratic Change (MDC) had lost confidence in him. 
 
¶6. (C) President Mwanawasa shared details about his 
discussions with Tsvangirai during the Zimbabwe opposition 
leader's visit to Lusaka.  He said that Tsvangirai was open 
to a government of national unity, particularly as Tsvangirai 
believes that he has won the national elections, but not with 
a majority of votes.  Tsvangirai, he said, thought this could 
be a way forward.  According to President Mwanawasa, 
Zimbabwe's Health Minister, who attended a SADC ministerial 
in Lusaka this week, told him that ZANU-PF is open to the 
possibility of a government of national unity and President 
Mwanawasa "should not be surprised if (he is) invited to 
discuss this possibility." 
 
¶7. (C) President Mwanawasa said he intends to discuss with 
President Dos Santos the possibility of sending a committee 
of SADC presidents to talk to President Mugabe and Zimbabwean 
opposition leaders.  He also called for a delegation 
comprised of former heads of state--such as Kaunda of Zambia, 
 
LUSAKA 00000463  002 OF 002 
 
 
Nujoma of Namibia, and Chissano of Mozambique--to entreat the 
Zimbabwean leader.  A/S Frazer agreed, saying that even if 
President Mbeki continues in his role, these former 
Presidents could play a constructive role.  She projected 
that it would be difficult for President Mugabe to dismiss a 
mission of first generation African leaders. 
 
¶8. (C) In response to President Mwanawasa's request for 
proposals on how to move forward, A/S Frazer answered that 
SADC should offer a security detail to Tsvangirai so that he 
can return to Zimbabwe without fearing for his life.  She 
encouraged SADC leaders to communicate to Mugabe that no harm 
should befall Tsvangirai.  She pointed to past practices in 
Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where South 
Africa offered its protection to returning opposition leaders 
so that they could return safely.  Such an act by President 
Mbeki, A/S Frazer added, could help restore relations with 
the MDC. 
 
¶9. (C) A/S Frazer emphasized that any solution that precludes 
President Mugabe's stepping down is unacceptable.  She 
recognized that an easy solution for SADC would be to do 
nothing.  Such a solution, she said, would do injustice to 
the Zimbabwean people, who exercised courage during the March 
29 elections.  The responsibility now, she urged, rests with 
the international community, rather than the Zimbabwean 
people.  She also noted that the USG would not support a 
solution that entails Mugabe holding on to power, in which 
case the USG would escalate its sanctions against Zimbabwe's 
leadership. 
 
¶10. (C) NSC Director Pittman indicated USG interest in taking 
the issue forward at the United Nations, so that the 
international community could speak with one voice and in 
complement to SADC.  Despite President Dos Santos's 
suggestions in a meeting on April 25 that a crisis would 
develop in Zimbabwe when the election results are finally 
announced, A/S Frazer pointed out that the crisis is already 
underway, with serious reports of intimidation, electoral 
fraud, and human rights abuse:  "The crisis is now.  Now is 
the time to push hard." 
 
¶11. (C) At the close of the meeting, Foreign Minister Pande 
confided that he had discussed the issue of the arms shipment 
to Zimbabwe with the Chinese diplomatic mission.  The Chinese 
diplomats had told him that China is embarrassed and prepared 
to recall the vessel.  In conclusion, President Mwanawasa 
said that he hoped recent events demonstrate "how far SADC 
will go" to bring peace to the region.  He welcomed further 
dialogue on Zimbabwe, and promised to be in contact with A/S 
Frazer to exchange ideas on the best way forward.  He also 
welcomed additional high-level USG visitors, including 
President Bush. 
 
¶12. (C) Comment.  It was encouraging to hear President 
Mwanawasa frame his statements about Zimbabwe in a human 
rights context and in a way that showed his awareness of the 
proliferation of human rights abuse in Zimbabwe.  There 
seemed to be little doubt in his mind that Tsvangirai had won 
the elections.  At one point, President Mwanawasa even 
mistakingly referred to the Zimbabwe opposition leader as 
"President Tsvangirai."  His multiple solicitations for 
guidance on the best way forward was encouraging and pointed 
to his sincerity and commitment in finding a solution that 
will bring both peace and change to Zimbabwe. 
MARTINEZ