VZCZCXRO9039
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0025/01 1181413
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 271413Z APR 08
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0268
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0200
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0232
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0261

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000025 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD 
BAKU FOR HAUGEN, ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  4/27/2018 
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE IRANIAN PARLIAMENTARY RUNOFFS, AS 
EXPECTED 
 
REF: RPO DUBAI 0008, 0012, 0013, 0015 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000025  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard,  Acting Director, Iran Regional 
Presence Office, DoS. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(SBU) Summary: The April 25 runoff elections for the Iranian 
Majles (parliament) confirmed that the newly-elected Majles will 
be dominated by conservatives, as expected.  The results of the 
runoff elections do not represent any significant changes from 
the results of the first round, held March 14.  Final results 
announced by the Interior Ministry indicate that conservatives 
have won 58% of seats in the 290-member body.  Reformists gained 
six seats over the 40 they held in the outgoing Majles, winning 
close to 16% of seats in this year's elections.  Independents 
won 24% of the seats.  (Note: Domestic press quoted the Interior 
Minister stating that conservatives won 69% of seats, however 
some independents were included in that figure. End note.)  In 
the important Tehran constituency, conservatives won 10 of the 
11 remaining contested seats, with the other seat going to a 
reformist.  According to the Interior Ministry, voter turnout in 
Friday's runoff elections was 26%. 
 
2.(C) Summary continued: Although these elections will have 
little direct bearing on Iranian foreign or nuclear policy, they 
will be relevant to Iranian domestic policy-particularly 
economic policy-as we enter the final year of President 
Ahmadinejad's first term.  Once the new Majles takes office May 
27, their first order of business will be to elect the Majles 
Presidium, the speaker and two deputy speakers.  The holders of 
these influential positions can shape the tone of relations 
between the new Majles and the president.  There is a good 
likelihood that current Majles speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel 
will retain the position in the new Majles, although former 
Supreme National Security Council (SNCS) secretary Ali Larijani 
is reported to have his sights on the position as well.  Both 
men have had public differences of opinion with the president 
and could use the forum of the speakership to continue 
criticizing Ahmadinejad.  End summary. 
 
 Nation-wide and Tehran results 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Conservatives dominated the April 25 runoff elections for 
the Iranian Majles, as expected.  The results of the runoff 
elections do not represent any significant changes from the 
results of the first round, held on March 14, in which 
conservatives also won the majority of seats.  According to 
results released by the Interior Ministry, the two main 
conservative groups (UFP and BPCP) together took 170 of the 290 
total seats in the Majles, giving conservatives 58% of the 
Majles. (Note: Domestic press cited outgoing Interior Minister 
Purmohammadi April 26 giving slightly different statistics, 
saying that conservatives will hold 69% of seats in the 
290-member parliament, with 16% going to reformists and 14% to 
independents.  However, some independents were included in the 
69% figure.  End note.)  Interior Minister Purmohammadi reported 
a 26% voter turnout in the April 25 runoff elections. 
 
4.(C) The United Front of Principle-ists (UFP) has been 
associated in the press with President Ahmadinejad.  However, 
the UFP list also includes some of the president's conservative 
critics, including Elias Naderan, the top Tehran vote-getter in 
Friday's runoff elections.  The UFP won 27 seats in the runoff, 
adding to the 90 seats they won in the first round.  This gives 
the UFP 40% of total seats in the Majles.  In Tehran, ten 
conservatives and one reformist won the remaining 11 Majles 
seats in that constituency.  All of the ten conservatives are 
from the UFP. 
 
5.(C) A separate group formed by Ahmadinejad's conservative 
opponents (Broad and Popular Coalition of Principle-ists, BPCP) 
won 11 seats, adding to the 42 won in the first round, giving 
them 18% of total seats.  The BPCP was led by a triumvirate of 
conservative critics of President Ahmadinejad: former Supreme 
National Security Council secretary Larijani (who was elected to 
a seat in Qom in the first round), former IRGC commander Rezaie, 
and Tehran Mayor Qalibaf.  (Note: Rezaie and Qalibaf did not run 
in the Majles elections. End note.) 
 
6.(C) Reformists won at least 15 additional seats above the 31 
from the first round, giving them close to 16% of seats.  The 
results of three seats were reportedly annulled by the Interior 
Ministry for unspecified reasons.  (Note: It is not clear how 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000025  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
the final results for those three seats will be determined. End 
note.)  If the results for the reformist seats are accurate, 
these elections gave the reformists a net gain of 6 seats over 
the 40 seats they held in the outgoing Majles.  Independents 
added 32 seats to the 39 from the first round, giving 
independents 24% of seats in the new Majles.  There are a 
greater number of independents in this Majles, and it is 
difficult to determine their political affiliations.  If a 
significant portion of these independents are reformist-leaning, 
they could add strength to the reformist minority. 
 
Next step: Election of Majles leadership positions 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (S) Once the new Majles takes office on May 27, their first 
order of business will be to elect the Majles Presidium, the 
speaker and two deputy speakers.  After that, the chairs of the 
various parliamentary committees will be selected.  The 
Presidium and committee chairs are influential positions, and 
provide venues for public debate and possibly criticism of the 
president's policies.  It will be noteworthy whether many 
prominent critics of Ahmadinejad gain leadership positions. 
According to one Tehran-based political analyst, current Majles 
speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel will likely be elected to the 
position again, out of respect, but with expectations that he 
will drop out to run for president in 2009, at which time 
Larijani would take the speakership. 
 
8.(C) Comment: Although these Majles elections will have little 
direct bearing on Iranian foreign or nuclear policy, they will 
be relevant to Iranian domestic policy-particularly economic 
policy-as we enter the final year of President Ahmadinejad's 
first term.  However, some MPs may use parliament as a venue to 
highlight the negative economic impact of Ahmadinejad's foreign 
and nuclear policies on domestic economic conditions.  As the 
analyst suggests, there is indeed a good likelihood that current 
Majles speaker Haddad-Adel will retain the position in the new 
Majles, although Iranian press has reported that Larijani has 
been lobbying for the position as well.  Both men have had 
public differences of opinion with the president and could use 
the forum of the speakership to continue criticizing 
Ahmadinejad. Analysis of the significance of the Majles 
elections and results of the first round were reported in 
reftels.  End comment. 
ASGARD