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Viewing cable 08KHARTOUM308, VIOLENCE FLARES AGAIN ALONG 1956 BORDER

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08KHARTOUM308 2008-03-03 07:20 2011-08-30 01:44 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Khartoum
VZCZCXYZ4245
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKH #0308/01 0630720
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030720Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0085
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000308 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON AND AF/SPG 
NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS MOPS KDEM SU
SUBJECT: VIOLENCE FLARES AGAIN ALONG 1956 BORDER 
 
REFS:  A. KHARTOUM 256 
B. KHARTOUM 298 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Violence has erupted again along the Kiir River in 
Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, where supposedly non-Misseriya 
Northern Popular Defense Forces have reportedly launched 
simultaneous attacks against three separate SPLA positions. 
Although calm returned after five hours of fighting, the SPLA Chief 
of Staff canceled his international travel plans to address the 
issue.  According to SPLA sources, PDF commanders from outside of 
Southern Kordofan state directed this latest violence, while a Ngok 
Dinka-Misseriya peace pact withstood the fighting.  The SPLA plans 
to protest the attack at the March 4 Joint Defense Board, and 
discuss possible UNMIS deployment to the area with appropriate UN 
officials. Misseriyya leaders and local media paint a radically 
different view of these events, claiming that they are the victims 
of an aggressive SPLA. END SUMMARY. 
 
"Significant and Worrisome" Attacks 
----------------------------------- 
2. (SBU) According to SPLA sources, On March 1, the SPLA sustained 
simultaneous assaults against three of its positions along the Kiir 
(Bahr el Arab) river in Northern Bahr el Ghazal state.  SPLA Chief 
of Staff General Oyai Deng Ajak termed the attacks "significant and 
worrisome," and cancelled planned travel to Uganda to remain in 
Southern Sudan and address the issue.  Ajak told ConGen PolOff that 
Popular Defense Forces launched the attacks from El-Meriam and 
Muglad, Southern Kordofan, and that the SPLA sustained heavy 
casualties during successive waves of attacks, but claimed "we 
repulsed them completely following the fourth assault." 
 
Local Peace Agreement Intact 
---------------------------- 
3. (SBU) SPLA Major General Kuol Diem Kuol, Chairman of the Joint 
Defense Board's Technical Secretariat, told ConGen PolOff that the 
attacks were not orchestrated by Misseriya but consisted exclusively 
of "mujahadeen" recruited from elsewhere in the North.  He claimed 
the forces were led by a Khartoum resident who worked as a 
journalist for (radical, pro-Al-Qa'ida, virulently anti-SPLM) Al 
Intibaha newspaper.  He insisted that Misseriya were not involved in 
the March 1 fighting, and described a recently brokered pact between 
Misseriya chieftains and Ngok Dinka chieftains about transit and 
grazing rights within the Muglad-Abyei-Agok corridor. 
 
4. (SBU) Kuol asserted that Misseriya chiefs involved in recent 
SAF-supported attacks against the SPLA have abandoned their 
agreement with the Northern army, and cemented their defection "from 
the ranks of war-mongers to supporters of peace" with a "peace 
agreement" with Ngok Dinka chieftains the week of February 25.  Kuol 
said that joint delegations of Misseriya and Ngok Dinka chieftains 
are currently holding briefing sessions with local affected 
populations and erstwhile Misseriya militias throughout the western 
region of Southern Kordofan state.  In addition to explaining the 
inter-tribal pact, Misseriya chiefs are advising people to refrain 
from violence and "reject untrustworthy offers from Khartoum." 
 
Massive Census Migration 
----------------------- 
5. (SBU) Asked about the possible motivation for fresh PDF 
offensives, Kuol told ConGen PolOff that Southerners in Khartoum had 
been planning a massive overland return to the Bahr el Ghazal region 
in the weeks immediately preceding the national census.  These 
mainly are Southerners with school-age children who want to be 
present in the South for the census, but who do not intend to remain 
permanently, lest they interrupt their children's education.  (NOTE: 
Road connections between Southern Kordofan state and Northern Bahr 
el Ghazal state remain one of the few easily traversable roads 
connecting the North and South.  The International Organization for 
Migration (IOM) reported that Northern and Western Bahr el Ghazal 
saw 240,000 returnees during the 2007 dry season. END NOTE.) 
 
Situation Stabilized 
-------------------- 
6. (SBU) SPLA Chief of Staff Ajak told ConGen PolOff that the 
situation has stabilized along the river following five hours of 
sustained attacks.  Casualty reports reaching Ajak by 10:00PM on 
March 1 indicated that at least a dozen SPLA soldiers required 
medevac, and that at least 25 PDF had been killed.  SPLA death tolls 
had not yet been reported.  Asked whether the SPLA Darfur brigade 
from Aweil would be dispatched as reinforcements, Ajak responded 
negatively, noting that "such action still would greatly complicate 
their integration into the SPLA."  (NOTE: Ex-PDF forces from South 
Darfur were brought into the SPLA last October and are currently 
being maintained as a separate unit co-located with the SPLA 
division in Aweil. END NOTE.)  Ajak noted that there are two 
battalions in the vicinity of the attacks that remained unaffected 
and could serve as reinforcements as necessary.  In response to 
questions about whether UNMIS deployment to the area would be of 
value, the Chief of Staff agreed that it was an avenue that should 
be explored and committed to raising it with CJMC Chairman General 
Lidder directly - in addition to tabling it at the March 4 Joint 
Defense Board. 
 
7. (SBU) Meanwhile Misseriyya leaders in Khartoum totally rejected 
the SPLA depiction of events (septel). They described themselves as 
victims of aggressive, well-armed SPLA units seeking to create facts 
on the ground in the contested Abyei region. They claim the fighting 
was along the Kiir River in Abyei not in Bahr al-Ghazal state and 
that the presence of SPLA units is a clear violation of the CPA. 
Sudanese newspapers, especially "Akhbar al-Yawm" on page one on 
March 3 printed details and photos of the 33 "martyrs" and 34 
wounded (being cared for at Omdurman Military Hospital and the 
Police Hospital) among Misseriyya herders killed and injured in the 
clashes. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
8. (SBU) GOSS President Kiir has previously noted that violence 
along the 1956 border has coincided with Joint Defense Board 
meetings - the latest NCP tactic to control the meeting's agenda and 
probe SPLA response to violence while many senior SPLA commanders 
are outside of the South.  More broadly, the March 1 attacks 
coincide with organizing meetings for the SPLM National Convention 
that have brought party luminaries from Foreign Minister Deng Alor 
to Deputy Secretary General Yasir Arman to Juba - adding another 
layer of stress to the already taxed GNU "junior partner." The shift 
from Misseriya chieftains to "Northern muhajadeen" is significant, 
if accurate.  Not only does it suggest a more hard-line commitment 
to violence by elements in Khartoum, but also shows the degree of 
difficulty the NCP faces in recruiting local forces grown weary of 
broken promises.  The actual facts on the ground in distant Abyei, 
however, remain murky. Misseriyya leaders in Khartoum and press 
coverage depict ill-armed Misseriyya herders as victims of an 
aggressive, well-armed SPLA operating north of the 1956 border 
 
FERNANDEZ