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DE RUEHCHI #0032/01 0630753
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P 030753Z MAR 08
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0687
INFO RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
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RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 0743

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000032 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/3/2018 
TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM PREF TH BM
SUBJECT: SNAPSHOT OF NORTHERN KAREN STATE PROVIDES LITTLE HOPE 
 
REF: A. CHIANG MAI 21 (KNU ASSASSINATION) 
     ¶B. 07 CHIANG MAI 203 (POSSIBLE KAREN STATE OFFENSIVE) 
     ¶C. 07 CHIANG MAI 188 (FREE BURMA RANGERS) 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000032  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Mike Morrow, Consul General, CG, Chiang Mai. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
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Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C)  A snapshot of Burma's northern Karen State provided by a 
recently returned Free Burma Rangers relief mission provides an 
overall bleak assessment for the local populace there.  The 
ethnic Karen, although  not facing an increase in fighting with 
Burma Army troops, are contending with continuing population 
displacement, increasing landmine casualties, hampered access to 
food and relief supplies, distress over the assassination of a 
key political leader, and absence of hope over national 
political developments.  End Summary. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Burma Army's Troop Surges Subsides 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C)  Free Burma Rangers (FBR) founder and leader David Eubank 
recently returned to Chiang Mai from a four-month trip to 
Burma's northern Karen State.  Eubank, an Amcit, was there from 
mid-October until late February, and reported to us on his 
observations.  The FBR is a faith-based organization that 
provides humanitarian assistance to civilians in ethnic areas 
under attack by the Burma Army along the Thai-Burma border. 
 
¶3. (C)  Eubank reported that the Burma Army's deployment surge 
in northern Karen State, which started last October and peaked 
at 97 battalions in the state's three northernmost districts in 
mid-January, has since subsided to about 60 battalions.  This is 
still larger than the usual 40-to-50-battalion strong presence 
the Burmese normally have there.  Eubank pointed out that, these 
days, the average size of a Burmese Army "battalion" has 
dwindled to fewer than 150 troops. 
 
------------------------------ 
Noose Tightens on Ethnic Karen 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C)  The troops in northern Karen State have been engaged 
primarily in road-building.  Eubank explained that, as the 
number of roads and Burma Army encampments has increased, ethnic 
Karen remaining in the area have been forced to relocate.  He 
showed us a series of FBR powerpoint maps showing how, in recent 
months and years: 
 
--  the roads and encampments (20-to-40 troops each) have 
steadily moved eastward toward the borders of Karenni State and 
Thailand; and 
 
--  the number of ethnic Karen living in the area has decreased. 
 
¶5.  (C)  The new roads have enabled the Burma Army to expand its 
control of the area, increase its mobility, and put increased 
pressure on the rebel Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), 
Eubank said.  The roads - which are heavily mined and actively 
patrolled by Burmese troops deployed at outposts only a mile 
apart - also serve as barriers to Karen access to food and 
relief supplies.  The Karen in the north have been cut off from 
their usual rice market in Karen State, and now can only safely 
travel to procure rice in Karenni State, in the city of Mawchi. 
This area is under the control of the Karenni National 
Solidarity Organization, which has signed a cease-fire agreement 
with the regime. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
No Increase in Fighting, But Landmine Injuries Up 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  The increased Burmese troop deployment has not brought 
with it an increase in fighting, Eubank said.  His FBR teams 
reported daily small arms and mortar fire in the road-building 
areas, mainly as a Burma Army tactic to chase away local 
villagers.  The shooting did kill some civilians, however.  In 
response, the KNLA inflicted some casualties when ambushing 
Burma Army troops that were rotating out of the area in January. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Landmine injuries to Karen civilians are on the rise, 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000032  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Eubank reported.  Firstly, Burmese troops are protecting their 
new roads with landmines, and lay mines in villages they destroy 
to victimize residents who return to collect belongings. 
Secondly, many of the landmine casualties are the result of 
mines placed by the Karen themselves, some of which inevitably 
and inadvertently kill or maim locals.  Eubank asserts that the 
majority of mines in the area are laid by the Karen, not the 
Burmese Army.  He related a story of a village woman who strings 
mines across the footpaths leading to the fields where she 
labors, as a defense against marauding Burmese troops.  While 
this is not a threat to innocents as long as she collects the 
mines at the end of her workday, Eubank pointed out, the mines 
could be lethal to locals should she be surprised and chased 
away or killed before clearing them. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Rangers Collaborate With Thai Security Forces 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  The FBR has good relations with, and shares information 
with, Thai security forces along the Burmese border (though 
Eubank would not name the specific organizations or units). 
When FBR teams cross into and back from Burma, the Thais not 
only turn a blind eye but also alert the FBR teams of areas to 
avoid due to Burma Army deployments.  Recently, Eubank said, 
Thai officials gave the FBR what he considered to be a 
first-ever "tasking" - to report anything FBR teams picked up 
about Burmese uranium prospecting and/or nuclear development 
programs.  Eubank told us he would be happy to do so, but 
expected the Thais to tell him what to look for and to provide 
supporting equipment, which has not happened. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Karen Reaction to Mahn Sha Killing, NLD Overture, and Referendum 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  We asked Eubank what reaction the Karen he met had to 
the February 14 assassination of Karen National Union Secretary 
General Mahn Sha (Ref A).  He replied that the Karen were very 
disturbed by the killing and blamed the Burmese regime for it. 
Since the killing, the FBR has not detected an increase in 
violence between the various Karen armed groups.  In fact, 
Eubank said, Mahn Sha's assassination appears to have had a 
unifying effect among the Karen. 
 
¶10.  (C)  We also asked Eubank about Karen reaction to both Aung 
San Suu Kyi's offer for the National League for Democracy (NLD) 
to hold talks with Burma's ethnic groups, and the regime's 
announcement of a constitutional referendum.  On the former, 
Eubank said the Karen were disappointed over the silence with 
which ASSK's offer was greeted by most ethnic groups that have 
signed cease-fire agreements with the regime.  On the latter, 
the Karen see the referendum as "a joke." 
 
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Comment 
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¶11. (C)  The Free Burma Rangers' snapshot of northern Karen 
State indicates that the initiative and upper hand remain with 
the regime troops.  The Karen, meanwhile, must cope with more 
population displacement, increasing landmine casualties, 
hampered access to food and relief supplies, distress over the 
assassination of a key political leader, and absence of hope 
over national political developments. 
 
¶12. (U)  This cable was coordinated with Embassies Rangoon and 
Bangkok. 
MORROW