VZCZCXYZ9812
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGB #0615/01 0621311
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021311Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6003
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000615 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2023 
TAGS: PGOV KISL IZ
SUBJECT: HUGE SHIA ARBA'EEN COMMEMORATION REFLECTS 
IMPROVING SECURITY AND SECTARIAN ATMOSPHERE 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  As many as several million Iraqi and foreign 
Shia pilgrims converged on the central Iraq city of Karbala 
February 26-29 to mark the end of the symbolic forty-day 
"Arba'een" commemoration to honor the seventh-century death 
of Hussein, a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad who is 
entombed in a Karbala shrine.  Local contacts report that 
this year's event was probably the largest since Saddam's 
2003 ouster, and they cite as explanatory factors a 
widespread public perception that the security situation is 
improving coupled with growing public confidence in the 
ability of GOI security forces to ensure pilgrim safety. 
Contacts also point to this year's relatively low number of 
attacks by AQI and other Sunni groups on Arba'een pilgrims as 
evidence of warming Sunni-Shia relations, a marked contrast 
to the 2006 and 2007 Arba'een commemorations that witnessed 
low turn-out and high sectarian violence.  While Arba'een 
violence did occur - a suicide bombing attributed to AQI 
killed more than 40 pilgrims - attacks in the general area of 
pilgrim traffic were down 65 percent from 2007 and were 
comparable to 2005 levels.  We see this year's large and 
relatively peaceful Arba'een commemoration as another point 
on Iraq's trendline of improving security, growing GOI 
capacity in maintaining public order, and slowly-thawing 
sectarian relations.  End Summary. 
 
Shia Throngs Converge on Karbala 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Shia pilgrims gathered in the central Iraq city of 
Karbala February 26-29 to mark the end of a symbolic 
forty-day (Arba'een means forty in Arabic) mourning period 
held annually to honor the seventh-century death of Hussein, 
a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, who was killed in a 
battle near Karbala and entombed in a gold-domed shrine that 
stands as one of Shia Islam's most sacred sites.  Arba'een is 
a solemn, emotion-laden event in which Shia reflect on the 
pain of Hussein's lonely death at the hands of a vastly 
superior army, and they experience (some would say 
exaggerate) a sense of collective guilt and remorse that 
Hussein had been left to his grim fate by all but a small 
circle of 72 supporters, who can aptly be described as the 
original Shia.  Some Shia express this latter emotion through 
various forms of ritual self-flagellation: in hours of 
extended live coverage of the commemoration (which was banned 
during the Saddam Hussein era), Iraqi state television 
repeatedly showed groups of men scourging themselves in 
rhythmic unison with lengths of chain or leather, and 
black-clad women striking and clawing at their own faces to 
express sorrow.  In order to symbolically replicate some of 
Hussein's hardships and obtain increased divine blessing for 
their "ziarah" (minor Shia pilgrimage), many pilgrims march 
at least part of the way to Karbala, which is about 50 miles 
or a one- or two-day journey by foot from Baghdad and a 10-12 
day walk from Basrah. 
 
¶3. (C) GOI authorities claim that 9 million pilgrims 
(including an estimated 80,000 foreign visitors, mostly from 
Iran and Gulf states) passed through the shrine complex last 
week, but Zuhair Hamoudi, a senior advisor to Vice President 
Adel Abdel Mehdi, told us that the real number was probably 
closer to 4 million.  A Sunni CoR Member was even less 
charitable in his estimate, asserting to us that Shia leaders 
are attempting to inflate crowd size in Karbala, which he 
claimed to be one million or less, in order to perpetuate 
with the USG the unsubstantiated belief that Shia outnumber 
the Sunni, who in fact comprise 40 percent of Iraq,s 
population.  Estimate inflation aside, Shia contacts agree 
that this year's commemoration was probably the largest since 
Saddam's 2003 ouster and that far more pilgrims traveled on 
foot this year than ever before.  While they cited various 
reasons for this phenomenon (for example, commemoration 
timing coincided with Iraq's public school mid-term break), 
the major factors are a widespread public perception that the 
security situation is improving coupled with growing public 
confidence in the ability of GOI security forces to ensure 
pilgrim safety.  For example, Shia Fadhila Party CoR member 
Bassim al-Sharif told us that many pilgrims marched to show 
that Iraqis are taking back their streets from terrorists and 
are no longer afraid.  Ahmed al-Rifai, who accompanied his 
boss Vice President Adel as he greeted and mingled with 
pilgrims at the Hussein shrine, said Adel and other GOI 
leaders were surprised and gratified by the huge turnout, 
which they see as a clear affirmation of Iraq's improving 
security situation. 
 
2008 Bigger, Better, Safer Than 2006 and 2007 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Contacts also cite this year's relatively low number 
 
of attacks by AQI and other Sunni groups on Shia pilgrims in 
transit to the commemoration as promising evidence of warming 
Sunni-Shia relations.  This situation is in marked contrast 
to 2006 and 2007, when Arba'een participation was reduced due 
to significant sectarian tension and violence.  According to 
Haitham al-Husseini, senior aide to ISCI chairman Abdel Aziz 
al-Hakim, numerous Baghdad pilgrims reported that they were 
offered food, water, and hospitality as they marched through 
Sunni-majority neighborhoods in Baghdad and in Sunni areas of 
towns along the Baghdad-Karbala highway such as Iskandariyah 
and Mahmoudiyah, two of the apexes of the so-called "Triangle 
of Death," a mixed Sunni-Shia area that has witnessed 
considerable sectarian mayhem in recent years.  Haitham 
maintained that large-scale Shia marching through 
Sunni-majority areas - much less Sunni hospitality to such 
marchers - was unthinkable in 2006 and 2007 but is now part 
of Iraq's evolving reality. 
 
¶5. (C) Statistics bear out the anecdotal reports.  While a 
suicide bombing attributed to AQI killed 40 pilgrims at an 
Iskandariyah pilgrim rest station, there were no other major 
attacks during the commemoration period.  Overall, attacks in 
Baghdad Security Districts and elsewhere in the general area 
of pilgrim traffic were down 65 percent from the 2007 
Arba'een and comparable to 2005 figures.  ISCI's Haitham and 
Fadhila's Bassim remarked that this reflects not only reduced 
sectarian tension but also greater GOI competence in 
maintaining security for such a large and operationally 
complex event.  The GOI reportedly deployed 50,000 security 
personnel to protect the shrine area and access routes, and 
wisely imposed a ban on vehicular traffic in densely crowded 
areas to safeguard against vehicle-borne explosives. 
 
¶6. (C) Just back from medical tests in London, Prime Minister 
Maliki delivered an upbeat, nationally-televised speech on 
the margins of the commemoration in which he praised Iraqis 
for "standing together to ward off the specter of civil war" 
and resist "the spirit of sectarianism that aims to dismember 
Iraqi society."  Urging continued efforts at all levels of 
society in promoting national unity and reconciliation, which 
he seemed to suggest had already been largely achieved, 
Maliki praised GOI security forces.  He declared 2008 as "the 
year of services and development" and vowed to crack down on 
state corruption.  In addition to Maliki and VP Adel, most 
other Shia political heavyweights were in attendance, though 
ISCI chairman Abdel Aziz al-Hakim did not participate due to 
ill health.  His absence may also have been calculated to 
provide additional limelight to his son and heir apparent 
Amar al-Hakim, who continued his campaign to establish 
himself as a future national leader by delivering a speech in 
which he called upon the Shia masses to support formation of 
a Shia-majority region and participate in upcoming provincial 
elections, and upon the GOI to improve delivery of public 
services.  Muqtada al-Sadr, whose armed minions attempted 
without success to seize the sacred Hussein shrine last 
August, was reportedly absent. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) While we do not subscribe to the almost Panglossian 
tone of Maliki's commemoration speech, we do see this year's 
large and relatively peaceful Arba'een commemoration as yet 
another positive point on a larger trendline of improving 
security, growing GOI capacity in maintaining public order, 
and thawing Sunni-Shia relations (though the Sunni CoR 
member's less-than-playful quibbling with Arba'een numbers is 
indicative of deep-rooted distrust and lingering suspicion 
between the groups).  The degree of popular participation and 
display of raw emotions during the commemoration serve as 
reminders of the enduring and visceral force of religion 
among Iraqi Shia.  It remains to be seen whether nominally 
religious-based parties such ISCI, Dawa, Fadhila, and the 
Sadrist Trend will be able to tap into and exploit this force 
in future provincial elections. 
CROCKER