VZCZCXRO3889
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHCH #0174/01 0521447
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211447Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6299
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHISINAU 000174 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL MD
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN MOLDOVA'S 
AUTONOMOUS REGION OF GAGAUZIA 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please Protect Accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Legislative elections in Moldova's autonomous 
region of Gagauzia have been scheduled for March 16.  Lack of 
funding has created uncertainty about whether the elections may have 
to be cancelled, but Gagauz leaders are still working on reaching an 
agreement with the central government.  Candidate registration 
finished February 14, with 160 candidates running for 35 seats in 
the Gagauz People's Assembly.  Three major political forces will 
compete in the race: candidates promoted by Bashkan (Governor) of 
Gagauzia Mihail Formuzal, candidates supported by the Communist 
Party, which has a majority of seats in the current legislature, and 
candidates supported by Mayor of Comrat Nicolai Dudoglo.  With 
Communist Party influence weakening in Gagauzia, prospects look good 
for Formuzal to gain a clear majority in the People's Assembly.  End 
summary. 
 
Election Mechanics 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Elections for the People's Assembly (the local Gagauz 
legislature) have been set for March 16.  This legislative body has 
35 members, elected for 4-year terms in single constituencies.  Each 
constituency has 5,000 registered voters and is split into voting 
precincts.  To win, a candidate must poll more than 50% of the votes 
cast in the constituency.  If no candidate polls more than 50%, a 
run-off round between the top two vote getters in the first round 
follows in two weeks.  The election is conducted by the Gagauz 
Election Commission (GEC), a non-permanent body created on an ad-hoc 
basis.  It has 9 members, with the People's Assembly, the Governor 
and Gagauz courts each appointing three members.  Candidates for the 
People's Assembly nominated by political parties and movements do 
not need to collect support signatures, while independent candidates 
need 300 signatures. 
 
Problems with Funding 
--------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Because Gagauzia has not yet received any funding from the 
central government for carrying out the elections a shadow of 
uncertainty about the prospect of holding the elections hangs over 
the process.  The PCRM and the Bashkan are each claiming the lack of 
funding on the other.  Bashkan Mikhail Formuzal has met with Prime 
Minister Tarlev, Parliamentary Speaker Lupu and the Moldovan Central 
Election Commission in an effort to secure funding for the 
elections.  Some anti-Formuzal Gagauz deputies issued a statement 
February 11 in the name of the People's Assembly Presidium blaming 
the Bashkan for his failure to allocate money for the elections from 
Gagauzia's budget.  The Bashkan, in turn, blames the central 
government for not providing the funding that Gagauzia needs for the 
conduct of its elections.  The Minister of Finance offered Gagauzia 
a loan of 1,200,000 lei (about 106,000 USD), but the Bashkan refused 
the loan, saying that the central government should be responsible 
for paying for Gagauz elections just as it paid for the 2007 local 
elections.  Without funding, the GEC is unable to print ballots and 
campaign materials. 
 
Multi-candidate elections 
------------------------- 
 
4 (U) Candidate registration finished February 14, with 160 
candidates for the 35 seats in the Gagauz parliament, an average of 
4.6 candidates per mandate.  Exactly half of the candidates, 80, are 
running as independents, while the other 80 represent 10 political 
parties.  The largest number of party-affiliated candidates (26) is 
from the Communist Party (PCRM).  The large number of independents 
stems from the past that Gagauz-specific regional parties cannot 
register without meeting the national registration requirements of 
500 members in each raion.  Formuzal heads the Yedinaya Gagauzia 
(United Gagauzia) movement, which is technically an NGO, as it 
cannot register as a political party.  More than half of the 
candidates listed as independents are actually supporters of 
Yedinaya Gagauzia. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Three major political forces will compete in the election: 
candidates supported by Formuzal, candidates supported by the PCRM 
and those supported by Mayor of Comrat Nicolae Dudoglo.  Formuzal's 
victory in 2006 has left him in a difficult relationship with the 
PCRM-controlled People's Assembly, which has important budgetary 
authority and oversight powers over the executive.  The PCRM does 
not want to loose its majority in the People's Assembly, but its 
popularity appears to be low.  By contrast, Formuzal is seeking to 
build on his 2006 victory.  As mayor, Dudoglo (who lost the 2006 
run-off for Bashkan to Formuzal) is popular in Comrat, but he is far 
weaker than Formuzal outside of Comrat. 
 
Comment:  What are the Stakes? 
------------------------------ 
 
CHISINAU 00000174  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Our Gagauz contacts suggest that the PCRM is likely to lose 
control of the People's Assembly.  If Formuzal wins a majority, it 
will be far easier for him to garner support for his policies.  With 
the legislature behind him, Formuzal's key challenge will be 
effectively managing the balance of power in his relationship with 
the central government.  The current struggle over funding for the 
elections is partially the result of lack of clarity in the 
separation of powers between central government and autonomy, but is 
a clear reflection of the uneasy relationship between the two.  The 
Ambassador plans to visit Gagauzia on March 3. 
 
Kirby