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Viewing cable 08SKOPJE53, MACEDONIA: LATEST POLLS FUEL EARLY ELECTION

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08SKOPJE53 2008-01-22 16:42 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Skopje
VZCZCXRO8046
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0053/01 0221642
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221642Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6928
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0161
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3734
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: LATEST POLLS FUEL EARLY ELECTION 
SPECULATION 
 
 
SUMMARY 
--------- 
 
1. (SBU) Recent opinion polls showing continuing strong 
support for PM Gruevski personally, despite a slight drop in 
support for his government, have intensified local 
speculation that the Prime Minister will call for snap 
elections after the NATO Summit in Bucharest this April. 
Support for the government's ethnic Albanian junior coalition 
partner, DPA, continues to fall, while opposition SDSM's 
numbers show a slight rise in popularity and ethnic Albanian 
opposition DUI maintains strong public backing.  Public 
support for NATO membership remains strong, at 89 percent. 
The growing gap between high public expectations for rapid 
progress on economic growth and perceived lackluster 
government performance may push the popular Prime Minister to 
hold early elections after the Bucharest Summit, regardless 
of whether Macedonia receives a NATO invitation. End summary. 
 
SLIGHT BOOST FOR THE OPPOSITION, NATO SUPPORT STRONG 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
2. (SBU) The results of the International Republic 
Institute's (IRI) latest opinion poll -- reflecting attitudes 
during the last quarter of 2007 -- have fueled local 
speculation that Macedonia might face early elections after 
the NATO Summit in Bucharest this April.  Both of the main 
government coalition parties, VMRO and DPA, experienced a 
small drop in public support, while opposition SDSM and DUI 
fared slightly better than in the previous quarter. Despite 
the opposition's improved standing, however, Gruevski's party 
maintains a solid 3:1 lead over opposition SDSM. 
 
3. (SBU) Most poll respondents indicated that political 
leaders were not addressing voters' main concerns, and that 
developments in Macedonia were moving in the wrong direction. 
 The poll showed unemployment continued to figure as the top 
issue of concern among citizens, although concerns about 
general stability and resolution of the name issue were also 
high.  Despite continuing high support for NATO membership -- 
nearly 90 percent -- most respondents believe political 
leaders here spend too much time talking about that issue 
instead of talking -- and doing something about -- 
joblessness and economic issues. 
 
PRIME MINISTER OUTPOLLS HIS GOVERNMENT 
-------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) The poll figures continued the trend IRI first 
reported in September 2007, which showed the beginnings of a 
combustible combination of high public expectations and 
lackluster government performance in achieving economic 
growth targets.  Unlike the government he leads, however, PM 
Gruevski remains highly immune to negative public sentiment, 
with 56% of respondents rating his job performance as 
"excellent," a rating unequaled by any other prime minister 
in the region, according to IRI staff. 
 
LEANING TOWARD EARLY ELECTIONS WITH OR WITHOUT A NATO INVITE 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Junior coalition partner DPA angrily dismissed the 
IRI poll, which showed its rival DUI gaining at its expense, 
as a tool to "pressure DPA to accept early elections."  A 
marathon weekend meeting of the DPA leadership resulted in 
the surprise directed mass resignation on January 20 of all 
DPA Ministers and Deputy Ministers.  Speculation about the 
resignations centered on DPA President Thaci's 
dissatisfaction with the work of the DPA ministers, and DPA's 
low poll ratings, and his desire to exert pressure on PM 
Gruevski or on his own party functionaries. 
 
6. (SBU) Given Gruevski's strong approval scores and DPA's 
continued slippage, media speculation about behind-the-scenes 
planning for early elections immediately heated up.  VMRO's 
continued 3:1 lead over SDSM prompted statements by some VMRO 
members that it would be advantageous to call snap elections 
after April, regardless of whether Macedonia receives a NATO 
invitation.  SDSM was reserved about that prospect, but a 
rather smug DUI made it known that it was in a good 
 
SKOPJE 00000053  002 OF 002 
 
 
bargaining position for such a scenario, with party leaders 
telling us they would trade support for early elections in 
exchange for Gruevski's commitment to pursue DUI's 
legislative agenda if they were included in a future 
government. 
 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
7. (SBU) If Macedonia receives a NATO invitation in April, PM 
Gruevski is virtually certain to capitalize on a resulting 
surge in popular support for his government to call early 
elections in the summer.  That would allow him to build a 
much stronger parliamentary majority, assuming he invited DUI 
to join him as his ethnic Albanian coalition partner.  Even 
without a NATO invitation, however, Gruevski is 
well-positioned to call snap elections.  In that event, he 
would rally support among ethnic Macedonian supporters by 
wrapping himself in the flag and blaming Greece and ethnic 
opposition DUI for having unjustly ruined Macedonia's NATO 
prospects.  If current trends continue, the rising wave of 
public expectations also would push Gruevski to seek a new 
coalition that could more effectively deliver on his economic 
growth program.  Either way, however, Gruevski likely 
considers that in domestic political terms he is in a win-win 
situation in which he can be less flexible in making domestic 
political concessions to the opposition, and more rigid in 
dealing with Athens on the name issue. 
MILOVANOVIC