VZCZCXRO9040
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0004/01 0231440
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 231440Z JAN 08
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0217
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0191
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0159
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0210

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000004 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD, 
BAKU FOR HAUGEN, ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM, 
PARIS FOR WALLER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  1/23/2018 
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: MP SAYS IRANIAN REFORMERS SURPRISED AT SCALE OF 
DISQUALIFICATIONS 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000004  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Acting Director, Iran Regional 
Presence Office, DoS. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(S//NF) Summary: A reformist Iranian Majles deputy (MP) told 
IRPO that reformers were surprised at the scale of recent 
initial disqualifications of parliamentary candidates by 
electoral supervisory commissions.  The MP claimed that 
reformist candidates would not contest their disqualifications 
and would instead opt to boycott the elections.  He predicted 
fewer than 30% overall voter participation.  The MP himself 
learned recently that he had been disqualified despite having 
already served two terms in the Majles, and was visibly shaken 
by the news.  He asserted that there was no longer any hope of 
free and fair elections, and although Supreme Leader Khamenei 
might intervene to allow a paltry few reformers to participate 
for the sake of appearances, none of the reformist candidates 
would go along with this transparent ploy.  End summary. 
 
REFORMERS FACE MASSIVE INITIAL DISQUALIFICATIONS 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2.(S//NF) IRPOffs met January 22 with an Iranian reformist 
Majles deputy (MP) who had learned very recently that he had 
been disqualified from running for re-election in the upcoming 
Majles elections March 14, and was still visibly shaken by the 
news. Despite his two-term incumbency, the MP said he had been 
disqualified along with a majority of other reformist 
candidates.  Reform groups expected some disqualifications of 
their candidates, as in previous elections, but the MP asserted 
they were nonetheless surprised by the wide scale. 
 
3.(U) According to press reports, members of two of the largest 
reformist groups, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF) 
and the Mojahideen of the Islamic Revolution Organization (MIRO) 
were disqualified along with several reformist incumbents. 
Several members of the reformist National Trust Party were also 
reportedly disqualified. 
 
WILL REFORMERS BOYCOTT THE ELECTIONS? 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4.(S//NF) The MP claimed that reformist candidates would not 
protest their disqualifications and would now boycott the 
elections.  He predicted that fewer than 30% of eligible voters 
would turn up at the polls.  However, a spokesman for the 
reformist coalition told domestic news Jan 22 that the coalition 
is still considering whether to boycott the elections. 
 
NO CHANCE NOW OF FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS, MP SAYS 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
5.(S//NF) The MP asserted that there was no longer any hope of 
free and fair elections, claiming that the ruling conservatives 
were employing a five stage strategy to prevent reformers from 
re-taking the Majles: 
 
--disqualifications 
 
--disrupt reformist campaign events 
 
--send out "night letters" on eve of vote, smearing reformers 
 
--ballot stuffing and other voter fraud on election day 
 
--no confidence votes 
 
The MP asserted that Majles speaker Haddad-Adel had no chance of 
winning his constituency in Tehran, claiming if he won, it would 
be a sign that the elections had been completely rigged.  The MP 
suggeQ that Supreme Leader Khamenei might intervene to allow 
a paltry few reformers to compete, for the sake of appearances. 
The MP claimed, however, that none of the reformist candidates 
would go along with this transparent ploy. 
 
GUARDIAN COUNCIL STILL TO REVIEW CANDIDATES 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000004  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
6.(U) These initial disqualifications were not done by the 
Guardian Council, which has yet to see the candidates' 
applications.  The applications were first reviewed by electoral 
supervisory commissions.  According to the head of the Interior 
Ministry elections headquarters, close to 40% of the 
approximately 7,200 candidates who registered were found to have 
criminal or legal records.  He did not elaborate further about 
the kinds of records which resulted in initial disqualification 
by the electoral commissions.  Disqualified candidates will have 
more than one opportunity to protest their disqualifications. 
Candidates can issue their protests between January 23-26; the 
electoral commissions will then consider the protests between 
January 27-February 3.  Rejected candidates can protest again 
between February 3-22, at which point the Guardian Council will 
review the appeals. Candidates can appeal disqualifications by 
the Guardian Council between February 23-26.  Final results will 
be announced March 5. 
 
¶7. Comment:  Heavy-handed disqualifications of reformist 
candidates in these elections have long been expected, and are 
likely to continue throughout the remainder of the vetting 
process.  A reformist boycott of the elections could be 
significant if it results in low voter turnout on election day. 
High voter turnout is viewed by many as an indication of 
systemic legitimacy, and the government has always strongly 
encouraged voter participation.  If there is low voter turnout 
due to a boycott, international criticism about the freedom and 
fairness of elections in the Islamic Republic might resonate 
more strongly with the Iranian public. 
ASGARD