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P 111433Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5984
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1854
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0285
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0142
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J5 MIAMI FL
RUEHCV/USDAO CARACAS VE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRIDGETOWN 000021 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CN TW BB XL
SUBJECT:  BARBADOS ELECTION UNPREDICTABLE TO THE END 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  With elections scheduled for January 15, the 
Barbados political landscape has heated up with accusations flying 
between the two main parties, the launch of their political 
manifestos, and the increased vigor of on-the-ground canvassing and 
media campaigning.  Statistically, the opposition party appears to 
have a slight edge, but this will likely be one of the hardest 
fought and most unpredictable elections in Barbadian history. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
AND THE SURVEY SAYS... 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The January 11 poll by CADRES, the leading polling company in 
the Caribbean, shows a continual shift towards the opposition 
Democratic Labour Party (DLP). According to the poll's calculations, 
a 9.9 percent swing against the ruling Barbados Labour Party (BLP) 
translates into 14 more seats for the DLP, giving them 21 out of 30 
seats. Also, since the October poll, opposition leader David 
Thompson's popularity has risen 12 percent, from 29 to 41 percent. 
Prime Minister Owen Arthur's popularity remains high, but has 
dropped slightly from 52 to 48.2 percent. Overall support for the 
two parties was dead even at roughly 30 percent each. 
 
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES 
------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) During the short campaign season leading up to the January 15 
elections, the ruling BLP is primarily focusing on its successes for 
the last 14 years and the immeasurable popularity of its leader, PM 
Arthur. The campaign emphatically states that Barbados would be in 
safer hands if the BLP is returned to power. However, the BLP is 
taking jabs at its competitor as well, citing the failure of the DLP 
to handle economic crises during its last short stint in power 
(1991-4). 
 
¶4. (U) Like the Democrats up North, the DLP is campaigning on the 
need for change. Key issues include the high cost of living, the 
quality of health care in Barbados, and the possible cost overruns 
on major public works, such as the highway expansion. The DLP is 
also attacking the BLP as corrupt and lacking integrity. A series of 
missteps on the part of the BLP have allowed the opposition to 
launch an attacking campaign, accusing the ruling party of 
attempting to establish a one-party state and utilizing covert 
surveillance and wiretapping. 
 
PARTIES UNVEIL FIVE-YEAR PLANS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) The BLP manifesto primarily promises to continue tackling 
ongoing problems and developing current projects. Proposals include 
utilizing Government lands for housing, tackling price gouging and 
high food prices, constructing a new state of the art hospital and 
National Sports Stadium, reducing taxes for middle income, 
instituting tax incentives to encourage the manufacture of "green" 
products, and establishing an Anti-Corruption Unit, Freedom of 
Information legislation, and a modern Corruption and Bribery Act. 
 
¶6. (U) The opposition DLP has developed potential policies designed 
to favor the common man. These include plans to remove Value Added 
Tax (VAT) on building materials on houses valued up to BDS 400,000 
(USD 200,000), reduce food prices and energy costs, rehabilitate the 
island's lone public hospital, increase pensions, lower taxes on 
mortgages, and provide house plots to low to middle income earners. 
 
THE TAIWAN QUESTION 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) With Taiwanese president Chen Shui Bian traveling to the 
region the week of the elections, the incumbent BLP has accused the 
opposition DLP party of engaging in discussions with Taiwan 
regarding campaign funding and a shift of allegiance from mainland 
China to Taiwan. The opposition DLP and the Taiwanese government 
have both issued statements vehemently denying these charges. (NOTE: 
As Barbados has maintained diplomatic ties with China since 1977, 
Post has no reason to believe there is merit to these charges. End 
Note.) 
 
IT'S ANYONE'S GAME 
------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: The BLP's greatest strength is Arthur's widespread 
popularity. However, Barbadians historically prefer to expel even 
 
BRIDGETOWN 00000021  002 OF 002 
 
 
the most popular leaders after they have been in power "too long." 
While opposition Leader David Thompson does not enjoy the same level 
of popularity, his popularity has steadily risen and the increasing 
sentiment for a need for change might allow the DLP to win the 
elections. Regardless of who wins, the victorious party will likely 
enter Parliament with fewer than the 23 out of 30 seats that the BLP 
currently enjoys. END COMMENT. 
 
OURISMAN