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FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9055
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 003816 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017 
TAGS: MARR MCAP PREL RP MASS
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT UNRATTLED AFTER FAILED PLOT TO 
DESTABILIZE PRESIDENCY 
 
REF: A. MANILA 3800 (STANDOFF WITH FORMER COUP PLOTTERS 
 
        ENDS PEACEFULLY) 
     ¶B. MANILA 3797 (SENATOR WALKS OUT OF COURT 
        PROCEEDINGS IN PROTEST 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Paul W. Jones, Reasons 1.4 (b) a 
nd (d) 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY:  In the aftermath of Senator Antonio 
Trillanes's failed attempt to destabilize the Arroyo 
government on November 29, Philippine President Gloria Arroyo 
expressed confidence in the security forces' handling of the 
situation, a gesture which was reinforced tangibly when she 
resumed her schedule and departed on a previously planned 
trip to Europe on December 2.  Economic markets in Manila 
paid little attention to the crisis, with investors 
discounting the likelihood of serious political instability. 
Despite the temporary detention of journalists who remained 
with the rebels after police orders to evacuate, overall 
reaction to the former coup plotters' tragicomic attempt to 
generate popular opposition to President Arroyo has been 
dismissive and derisory.  Fifty-one persons have been charged 
with rebellion in connection with the event.  Ironically, 
while Trillanes faces additional judicial and Senate scrutiny 
over his actions, this may not spell the end of his political 
career. END SUMMARY 
 
----------------- 
BUSINESS AS USUAL 
----------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  Following the short-lived standoff between 
Philippine security forces and mutineer Senator Antonio 
Trillanes and chronic coup plotter Brigadier General Danilo 
Lim (reftels A and B) at the Manila Peninsula Hotel November 
29, Philippine President Gloria Arroyo expressed her full 
confidence in the stability of the political situation by 
commencing a previously planned trip December 2 to Europe. 
Indeed, barely 12 hours after the standoff ended, she and her 
husband kept their appointment for a golf outing.  The 
president also appeared in public on December 1 at a Manila 
flea market assuring patrons during a brief outing that the 
country was "calm and secure."  Both appearances, along with 
her departure for a week-long trip to France, Spain, and the 
United Kingdom with a large delegation of cabinet members, 
congressmen, and business leaders, underscored her message to 
the Philippine people on December 1 after the 
insurrectionists had been arrested that Manila and the rest 
of the country were functioning normally. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
HEAVY MEDIA COVERAGE BUT LITTLE SUPPORT FOR DESTABILIZERS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶3.  (C)  Overall reaction to the serial coup plotters 
attempts' to destabilize the government has been negative. 
Immediately after Trillanes and Lim surrendered, Philippine 
police took all who were present with Trillanes into custody, 
including approximately 50 journalists who declined police 
orders to evacuate the hotel.  The journalists were released 
after being interviewed by police, but their detention has 
led a Philippine senator to file a resolution in the Senate 
denouncing the journalists' treatment.  While the media 
themselves were garnering attention for being detained, 
notable events were given less coverage than they might 
otherwise have received, including the announcement that the 
Philippine economy grew at 6.6 percent in the third quarter, 
the fifth straight quarter of strong growth. 
 
¶4.  (C)  The media coverage of the siege was not indicative 
of widespread public support or approval for Trillanes's and 
Lim's actions. Indeed, all evidence indicates that these 
serial destabilizers were unable to generate more than a few 
dozen sympathizers.  As the incident unfolded, military 
leaders ordered the assessment of all troops to check for 
possible instability and assured President Arroyo that 
Trillanes, a former naval officer, did not have widespread 
support from the military. While some columnists and analysts 
expressed concern at the detention of journalists, 
characterizations of Trillanes' caper ranged from "poorly 
planned" to "a bizarre soap opera" to "delusional."  During 
the standoff, Philippine Speaker of the House of 
Representatives Jose De Venecia assured some 150 visiting 
foreign parliamentarians that the public was "tired of people 
power and other extra-constitutional means to overthrow the 
government," and that Trillanes's stunt "would fizzle out." 
 
---------------- 
 
MANILA 00003816  002 OF 003 
 
 
FACING THE MUSIC 
---------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Following their surrender, Trillanes and Lim 
immediately were handcuffed, arrested, and taken into 
custody.  The Philippine Department of Justice filed 
rebellion charges against Trillanes, Lim, and 49 others for 
their November 29 actions.  PNP Chief General Avelino Razon 
Jr. told the media that an additional charge of economic 
sabotage may be filed against Trillanes and Lim, citing 
damages to the Peninsula Hotel.  In addition to these 
charges, Trillanes is facing previous charges for his role in 
the failed 2003 Oakwood Mutiny against the Philippine 
government, contempt citations issued by the trial judge when 
he left the courtroom on November 29, military charges, and 
Senate disciplinary action.  Lim has been under detention and 
on trial for his role in a February 2006 failed coup attempt. 
 
------------------------------- 
TRILLANES' SENATE SEAT IN LIMBO 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  While prior to this most recent destabilization 
attempt it appeared Trillanes would be pardoned for the 
Oakwood Mutiny, such a possibility now seems remote. 
Pro-administration Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago filed a 
motion on December 3 to expel Trillanes from the body before 
departing for Europe with President Arroyo.  The Philippine 
Constitution provides that the Senate, with a vote of 
two-thirds, may impose disciplinary measures, including 
suspension or expulsion, for acts of "disorderly behavior" by 
a fellow senator.  Senate President Manny Villar noted that 
it would be unlikely for the Senate to seek custody of 
Trillanes for the recent charges, but the Senate may consider 
such disciplinary action.  However, Villar's fragile majority 
is composed of 15 senators, one short of the two-thirds 
required, and it is unlikely that some of those, particularly 
Gregorio Honasan, who himself was charged in the 2003 Oakwood 
Mutiny, would support such action.  Senate Minority Leader 
Aquilino Pimentel vowed to block any procedural sanctions 
against Trillanes, arguing that the judicial proceedings 
should be allowed to take their course. 
 
------------------------------------ 
ECONOMIC MARKETS UNPERTURBED BY NEWS 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (C)  Financial markets paid little attention to the news 
that Trillanes, Lim and a few followers had attempted to 
destabilize the government again.  The Philippine stock 
market closed at noon Thursday in advance of Friday's 
national holiday, and the dollar slumped slightly at the end 
of the day.  Monday opening positions seemed to be entirely 
unaffected, as both the stock market and the peso were up. 
The Embassy expects the overall economic impact of the 
November 29 events to be negligible.  Most investors already 
have discounted their investments for political instability, 
and by their standards, Trillanes' actions were fairly 
insignificant.  The impact of international media coverage 
will do little to affect the number of tourists, mostly 
Asians, who mostly visit resorts far from Manila in the 
archipelago. 
 
 
¶8.  (C)  COMMENT:  A variety of factors contributed to the 
destabilizers' failure:  a clear chain of command in the 
Philippine government; coordinated, swift police and military 
action; a growing, if cautious, respect among the public for 
rule of law; and Trillanes's failure to create the 
broad-based support among the clergy, protest groups, and the 
military.  It is highly probable that Trillanes and the 
others planned their exit from the courtroom and the 
subsequent march to the Peninsula Hotel since members of 
their group were in position at the hotel and armed when 
Trillanes and Lim arrived.  From the beginning, it was clear 
that the civilian authorities were in charge, and the 
coordinated police-led response by security forces reflected 
the strength of the communication between Armed Forces Chief 
of Staff Esperon and Philippine National Police Chief Razon. 
The short duration of the standoff -- less than six hours -- 
did not allow Trillanes time to muster support from potential 
sympathizers, if any.  Finally, Trillanes grossly overplayed 
his hand.  He may have planned the walkout and staged the 
activities at the hotel, but he underestimated the public's 
desire for political differences to be settled by the 
democratic process, rather than by intimidation.  Questions 
remain as to how Trillanes was able to organize the handful 
of participants in the standoff and to what extent, 
 
MANILA 00003816  003 OF 003 
 
 
supporters are still in the wings, awaiting another chance to 
lash out against President Arroyo.  Whether or not the serial 
nature of Philippine destabilization attempts is coming to an 
end remains to be seen, but it appears their ability to rally 
mass support has waned.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/ 
 
KENNEY