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Viewing cable 07ANTANANARIVO1221, LIFE IN ANJOUAN UNDER COLONEL BACAR

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07ANTANANARIVO1221 2007-12-04 04:55 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Antananarivo
VZCZCXRO2731
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #1221/01 3380455
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 040455Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0752
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001221 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON SOCI EAID CN
SUBJECT:  LIFE IN ANJOUAN UNDER COLONEL BACAR 
 
REF:   A)  ANTAN 1215 
 
  B)  ANTAN 1210 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Reports from Anjouan, where EmbOffs have been 
unable to visit for six months, indicate life in limbo for most of 
the 240,000 people living there.  There are unconfirmed reports that 
many opponents to Bacar, journalists, activists, intellectuals, and 
teachers, have been imprisoned; others have fled.  An "Anjouanese 
Association" in Moroni, Grande Comore, is lobbying for military 
action against Bacar.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU)  On recent visits to the Union of the Comoros, PolEcon 
Chief met with the "United Front" association (favoring military 
action against Anjouan), NGO contacts, the Union Government, and 
diplomatic corps to assess life in Colonel Bacar's Anjouan.  The 
Ambassador reported (Reftels) that strong arguments are being 
offered both in favor of restraint/negotiation and military action. 
While this debate plays out, conditions in Anjouan slowly 
deteriorate. 
 
Anjouan Association Advocates Force 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
3. (SBU)  According to Ben Ali Kombu, an NGO activist leader in a 
group calling itself the "United Front," Anjouan's 240,000 people 
are suffering hardship.  While renegade Colonel Bacar provisions his 
entourage and militia, staple foods and fuel are becoming scarce. 
Kombu said most average Anjouanese, subsistence farmers and 
fishermen, are living off their crops and their savings.  Having 
endured crises in the past, they can hold on for several months. 
 
4. (SBU)  For Anjouanese "elites," however, the situation is grave, 
Kombu said.  Reliable information is hard to come by, but Colonel 
Bacar has reportedly imprisoned hundreds of real or imagined threats 
to his regime, including journalists, intellectuals, politicians, 
and even teachers.  Among the limited information trickling out of 
Anjouan is a report that jails are full and Bacar is holding people 
in shipping containers.  Between 500 and 600 Anjouanese have fled 
the island, most ending up in Grande Comore.  In addition to 
"elites" fleeing arrest, many small traders have also left Anjouan 
because they cannot do import/export under Bacar in present 
conditions.  This will exacerbate the scarcity of foodstuffs in 
Anjouan. 
 
5. (SBU)  Kombu's Front, which collected 3,000 petition signatures 
in Grande Comore and includes National Assembly deputies, held a 
rally November 25 to protest the African Union's "timid" approach to 
the Anjouan crisis.  The Front claims there is broad public support 
for the Union Army, alone or with friends, to invade Anjouan.  Kombu 
offered the impossible-to-confirm statistic that 90 percent of 
Anjouanese favor an invasion.  He asserted that Anjouanese civilians 
would join in the attack and that Bacar's militia would not fight 
back. 
 
Anjouanese NGO Contact 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
6. (SBU) An NGO leader well-known to the Embassy moves freely in and 
out of Anjouan.  In Moroni in late November on contract with UNDP, 
Alban Soilihi told PolEcon Chief Bacar leaves him alone because he 
is apolitical and has international ties.  Alban confirmed Bacar was 
paranoid and locking up anyone who could oppose him.  He reserved 
his criticism, however, for the Sambi administration's mishandling 
of the Anjouan situation.  Noting his many friends among Sambi's 
predominantly Anjouanese advisors, Alban was disappointed none of 
them understood the situation in Anjouan or knew what to do about 
Bacar.  He criticized as naove the Sambi government's public 
statements staking out tough positions against Bacar, which they 
could not back up. 
 
International Opinions On Anjouan 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
7. (SBU)  While Union officials call the flight of hundreds of 
Anjouanese the greatest displacement in Comoran history, there is 
little evidence of acute humanitarian crisis on any of the islands. 
Some Comorans, like the "Front" who call for military action, ignore 
that armed invasion would lead to substantial human suffering.  The 
AU, led by South Africa, is prepared to be patient and ramp up 
pressure on Bacar over time.  The French are preoccupied with 
finding which of the free islands, Moheli or Grande Comore, will 
accept repatriated Comoran illegals from Mayotte.  While 
acknowledging that all development progress is on hold, none of the 
 
ANTANANARI 00001221  002 OF 002 
 
 
donors are sounding humanitarian alarm bells over Anjouan, yet. 
 
Bacar Profits From Stalemate 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
8. (SBU)  There is little doubt that Colonel Bacar enriches himself 
more every day he can remain in power.  African Union ResRep Mourad 
reported a rumor that shipping companies pay Bacar a "fee" of about 
USD 1.6 million a year to use the Anjouan Port of Mutsamudu.  (Note: 
 Anjouan has the deepwater port, so most international traffic 
in/out of the Comoros is transshipped there.  End Note).  Add the 
over USD 1 million Bacar collects from customs, and this tin-pot 
dictator may earn nearly USD 3 million per year just controlling the 
Port.  Of course, this does not all go into his pockets - he does 
have arms to buy and a militia to pay. 
 
MARQUARDT