VZCZCXRO3147
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0891/01 3131605
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 091605Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6694
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE 0086
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3716

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000891 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE, STATE FOR EAP/FO FOR EVELYN POLIDORO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR A/S HILL'S VISIT 
NOVEMBER 12-14 
 
 
NEED TO SPRINT TO THE NATO MEMBERSHIP FINISH LINE 
 
¶1. (SBU) Welcome back to Skopje!  When you arrive, political 
leaders here will be mulling over the tough message USNATO 
Ambassador Nuland delivered November 8 during a USG 
interagency visit to Skopje.  Nuland told the government and 
opposition that Macedonia needs to demonstrate its readiness 
for NATO membership by "sprinting" the last two miles of the 
marathon it has been running since it became a NATO MAP 
aspirant in 1999, or risk not making it.  You can help 
reinforce her message in your one-on-one meetings. 
 
EU PROGRESS REPORT -- "BALANCED AND FAIR" 
 
¶2. (SBU) The EU's annual progress report, released November 
6, criticized the lack of political consensus here, slow 
progress on EU-related reforms, and the lack of effective 
PM-President cohabitation, among others.  The report did not 
recommend a date for beginning EU accession negotiations. 
That rebuke of the Gruevski government was expected, but 
stung nonetheless.  Gruevski responded positively, however, 
characterizing the report as "balanced and realistic."  He 
noted the achievements it mentioned (for which he took 
credit), insinuated that the opposition was to blame for many 
of the country's shortcomings, and said the government would 
continue to work toward a date for beginning membership talks 
(Macedonia became an EU candidate country in December 2005). 
 
 
KEY ISSUES FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP 
 
¶3. (SBU) We and the Europeans are pressing the Macedonian 
government (GOM) and opposition on critical NATO and EU 
membership-related issues.  But first, the good news: 
 
--Macedonia has made good anti-TIP progress this year, moving 
from a Tier II Watchlist candidate to a solid Tier II 
performer.  The government also has shown progress on the 
anti-corruption front, jumping from 105th place on 
Transparency International's corruption perception index in 
2006 to 84th place this year.  The government has actively 
pursued corruption investigations and prosecutions, although 
some cases clearly have been motivated by partisan 
considerations (including the ongoing prosecution of former 
PM Buckovski). 
 
--Framework Agreement (FWA) implementation has progressed, 
with phase II of decentralization having begun as scheduled 
in 42 of Macedonia's 84 municipalities in July of this year, 
and continued hiring of ethnic Albanian and other minorities 
to implement equitable representation.  But more remains to 
be done.  The GOM needs to work with the remaining 42 
municipalities to prepare them to take part in phase II of 
decentralization.  Despite its oft-touted "tripling of the 
equitable representation budget for 2007," the government 
also needs to clear up the currently murky process for hiring 
ethnic minorities with transparent, fair, and non-partisan 
hiring guidelines. 
 
--Macedonia is showing positive economic performance, with 
the country recently ranked by the World Bank as one of the 
top 10 "most improved" countries in carrying out business 
environment reforms.  Gruevski has raised public sector wages 
and cut VAT rates on some key consumer items, which has 
helped keep his poll numbers strong.  Starting in 2008, 
personal and corporate tax rates will fall from 12 percent to 
10 percent (flat tax), one of the lowest tax rates in Europe. 
 
--Rounding out its achievements, the GOM passed this year a 
liberal religious freedom law which generally meets ODIHR 
standards for protecting religious freedom.  The GOM just 
submitted for parliamentary approval a decision calling for 
doubling Macedonia's contributions in Iraq -- by an 
additional platoon -- and MOD Elenovski says Macedonia also 
is considering a future increase in its troop contributions 
in Afghanistan (President Crvenkovski paid a morale-booster 
visit to ARM troops in ISAF October 10-11).  Although 
cohabitation remains poor, President Crvenkovski recently 
accepted PM Gruevski's offer to meet monthly to "harmonize 
positions on strategic issues."  Macedonia also successfully 
hosted the NATO EAPC Security Summit in June, demonstrating 
it could tackle the logistics and security challenge of 
hosting 49 delegations for the event, including the NATO 
Secretary General. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SKOPJE 00000891  002 OF 003 
 
 
NATO BID IN THE BALANCE: NEED TO SPRINT, NOT LIMP, TO THE 
FINISH LINE IF YOU WANT TO CROSS IT. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite positive accomplishments, movement on key 
political criteria has practically ground to a halt.  There 
has been some slight movement on two of the five points in 
the May 29 VMRO-DUI agreement that ended DUI's boycott of 
parliament, but the two main issues -- a draft language law 
and a social package for former insurgents -- are stuck in a 
quagmire of political gamesmanship on both sides.  (Note: The 
main points of the US/EU-brokered May 29 agreement between 
governing VMRO and ethnic Albanian opposition DUI are: 
codifying a list of 46 laws that would require qualified 
(Badinter) majority voting; recomposing the parliamentary 
committee on inter-ethnic relations; submitting a draft 
language law for parliamentary consideration, and concluding 
a deal on a social benefits package for victims of the 2001 
conflict. End note.) 
 
¶5. (SBU) The government holds the key to de-blocking the 
process, but too often has preferred to blame others for the 
deadlock.  DUI and Gruevski ally DPA also are at loggerheads, 
despite a recent attempt by Albania's President to nudge both 
sides toward rapprochement.  The two ethnic Albanian parties 
are being blamed in the media for direct or indirect links to 
recent incidents near the border with Kosovo that have 
involved arms smuggling, movements of criminal elements, and 
a recent shoot-out between rival criminal groups.  Some local 
analysts (incorrectly, in our view) have assessed those 
incidents as "security challenges" that could be 
destabilizing as Kosovo status deadlines approach (see para 
11, below). 
 
¶6. (SBU) The government has managed to fill four of the 
remaining five seats on the 15-member State Judicial Council 
(SJC), which has allowed the SJC to fully function, 
permitting key judicial reforms to proceed.  It achieved that 
goal, however, through a tactical end run around the 
President and ethnic Albanian opposition DUI, which has 
further damaged relations with DUI.  Gruevski has rejected 
the President's proposal to fill the remaining seat to 
complete the SJC.  By alienating DUI, Gruevski also has 
ensured a tough slog as the MOI moves to implement the law on 
police (required for NATO membership), which will require DUI 
buy-in. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Our message to the GOM accordingly has been 
hard-hitting: 
 
"If you do not change the way you are working, if you fail to 
work with the opposition to build consensus on May 29 
implementation, completion of the SJC, and implementation of 
the police law -- among others -- you will have failed to 
meet NATO criteria.  The image you convey in implementing 
priority tasks -- whether you bypass the opposition or work 
to build consensus -- is critical  to promoting your 
candidacy with other NATO allies.  We will press the 
opposition to be flexible as well.  But you are responsible 
for following through to change the current negative 
atmosphere.  Your NATO bid hangs in the balance." 
 
¶8. (SBU) We have delivered to the opposition an equally tough 
message about acting responsibly: "Now is not the time for 
partisan gamesmanship or filibusters that could endanger 
Macedonia's NATO bid.  Not just Gruevski, but DUI's president 
Ahmeti too needs to abide by the May 29 agreement. 
Short-term partisan gains could cost your country its NATO 
candidacy.  All must demonstrate flexibility and a readiness 
to compromise for Macedonia's sake." 
 
COURSE CORRECTION ALSO NEEDED ON THE NAME ISSUE 
 
¶9. (SBU) The GOM has, by and large, tried to act with 
restraint on the name issue, despite Greek threats to veto 
Macedonia's NATO candidacy if Skopje does not agree to a 
compromise solution before the Bucharest Summit in April 
2008, and despite missteps by both UNGA President Srjan Kerim 
and President Crvenkovski at the UNGA in September that 
understandably provoked strong Greek reactions.  During 
negotiations on the name in New York November 1, UN Special 
Envoy Nimetz proposed guidelines and principles for moving 
toward a solution, which FM Milososki initially described as 
"generally positive." 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Prime Minister, however, in a public statement 
 
SKOPJE 00000891  003 OF 003 
 
 
the next day rejected the key point in the proposal that 
would require Macedonia to use a differentiated name for 
international use.  That statement violated Nimetz's request 
for confidentiality and undermined the overall process.  Even 
though we are not asking Macedonia to change its 
constitutional name, we are urging both sides to refrain from 
provocations and "study the Nimetz paper with an open mind 
and with a view toward finally resolving differences and 
reaching a solution to the issue." 
 
SUCCESSFUL POLICE ACTION TARGETS CRIMINAL GROUP IN NORTHWEST 
 
¶11. (SBU)  On November 7, the Ministry of Interior (MOI) 
carried out a major police operation around Brodec, near the 
Kosovo border, aimed at a group of 30-40 criminals, including 
several escapees from a Kosovo prison.  The group was 
suspected of, inter alia, arms smuggling and planning attacks 
on local police stations.  According to the MOI, several 
hundred police were involved in the operation, which our 
ICITAP adviser and his OSCE colleague assessed as having been 
conducted professionally.  The MOI reported that six members 
of the group were killed in exchanges of gunfire with police, 
but there were no civilian casualties officially reported; 
one police officer was lightly wounded during the operation. 
Police also discovered a large cache of ammunition, 
explosives, and weapons (including MANPADs and RPGs) at the 
site of the incident. 
MILOVANOVIC