VZCZCXRO2577
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0068/01 3251511
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 211511Z NOV 07
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0196
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI PRIORITY 0189
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI PRIORITY 0180
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 0146
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/21/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON IR EFIN
SUBJECT: FINANCIAL ANALYST SAID CAPITAL STILL FLOWING 
 
REF: A. RPO DUBAI 0035; B. ABU DHABI 1823 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000068  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Acting Director, Iran Regional 
Presence Office, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(S) Summary:  A former Central Bank of Iran (CBI) employee and 
analyst for an American financial management firm in Dubai 
discussed with Econoff current pressures facing Iranians both in 
Iran and Dubai.  The former banker told Econoff that a 
Tehran-based friend -- who produces a monthly economic 
newsletter for clients -- felt it necessary to meet with the 
Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) about his work after hearing 
rumors that the Iranian authorities were "after him."  The same 
friend reportedly approached the same Dubai-based financial 
analysts for assistance in moving $80 million out of Iran, with 
more to follow.  The contact claimed to Econoff not to know who 
the $80 million belonged to.  Not wanting to get involved in the 
money transfer, the analyst reportedly referred the friend to 
the British arm of the American firm, feeling compelled to help 
Iranians without implicating the US company.  The analyst echoed 
claims we have heard from other Iranians that they are facing 
greater difficulties obtaining work visas, business permits, and 
financing in Dubai - and that escalating real estate prices are 
driving them to alternative locations like Bulgaria (real estate 
market information to be reported septel).  End summary. 
 
Mitigating MOIS suspicion 
 
---------------------- 
 
2.(S) A long-time IRPO contact and former employee of the 
Central Bank of Iran, now working as a financial analyst for an 
American financial company in Dubai, described to Econoff new 
pressures that friends are facing in Iran.  One friend is an 
economist and produces a monthly for-fee business newsletter 
(NFI).  The friend reportedly heard rumors that the Iranian 
authorities "were after him," because of what he was writing in 
his publication.  In an effort to mitigate the situation, he 
reportedly called the Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) and set up 
a meeting to go over his product.  The MOIS allegedly told him 
what he could and could not report on; in particular he was 
advised to cut all political analysis of Iran and not produce an 
English version of his product. 
 
Capital outflow from Iran 
 
------------------------ 
 
3.(S) The analyst said that as an incentive to business, Iran 
recently passed a bill allowing exporters to keep 10% of their 
profits outside the country.  Exporters are creating false 
invoices, claimed the analyst; by overstating invoice totals, 
greater amounts can be left overseas.  The analyst then said 
that this same friend in Iran recently asked for assistance in 
moving money around of Iran, initially mentioning the sum of $30 
million, then upping it to $80 million, with more to follow. 
The analyst claimed they would not help, not wanting to 
jeopardize their employment with an American company, but 
referred him to the British arm of the financial management 
firm.  The analyst claimed not to know who the $80 million 
belonged to.  The contact did not want to break any US laws but 
at the same time felt compassion for Iranians and understood 
their plight.  Reportedly all the analysts' friends, associates, 
and family members have left Iran, "if they could." 
 
4.(S) The analyst claimed that the economist friend in Iran had 
data showing that $200 billion was transferred out of Iran last 
year.  (Note:  Similar figures have been quoted in the press, 
but IRPO has not been able to confirm their accuracy.  Endnote) 
 
Dubai making life difficult for Iranians 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5.(S) The analyst repeated what other Iranians have recently 
said, that some Iranians are having difficulty obtaining work 
visas in Dubai.  One Iranian who works for an Iranian general 
services and trading company (with a silent Emirati partner) 
complained that ever since President Ahmadinejad visited Dubai 
May 13 (ref A), it has become harder for Iranians to obtain 
business licenses.  His company is reportedly still waiting on 
approval to move into the real estate market.  (Note:  It is not 
known if the UAE has officially changed its policies regarding 
work visas for Iranians, but has indicated interest in 
tightening up on Iranian travelers.  Endnote) 
 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000068  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
6.(S) A November 16 news article in Dubai's Gulf News said that 
UAE-based banks have largely stopped issuing letters of credit 
for trade financing involving Iran-based companies.  One banker 
reportedly told Gulf News that there is no UAE legal requirement 
for banks to take such measures but that they are acting on the 
basis of their own "risk perceptions and assessment."  In an 
October 29 meeting with Under Secretary of Treasury for 
International Affairs David McCormick, UAE Central Bank Governor 
Sultan Nasser Al-Suwaidi said he believed the US and UN 
sanctions were having an impact on Iran and Iranian businesses 
in the UAE, claiming that the UAE had seen a decline in 
financial transfers from Iran in August.  Al-Suwaidi attributed 
the decline to two possibilities: either the Iranians were 
retrenching economically, or were diverting their business away 
from the UAE and GCC countries (ref B).  Anecdotally, 
Dubai-based bankers have complained about the chilling effect of 
UAE Central Bank guidance on doing business with Iran 
(presumably the UNSCR 1737 and 1747 guidance) on their business 
with Iranian companies. 
 
7.(S) Comment:  The claim that MOIS is putting restrictions on 
economic publications is believable.  IRPO contacts working in a 
similar consulting field have told IRPO that to reduce 
government suspicion; they publish their international travel 
and speaking engagements on their website and take care to 
mention their activities to specific contacts who they know are 
likely to brief the government.  Nonetheless, their 
subscription-only newsletter continues to be produced in English 
and contains political analysis. 
 
8.(S) Comment cont:  We have heard claims for several months 
that the UAE has periodically cracked down on residency visas 
and business licenses for Iranians, although there has been no 
policy pronouncement from the UAEG.  We have also heard that 
Iranians are looking to CIS countries to invest in the real 
estate market, partly due to the rising costs in Dubai (to be 
reported septel).  The Gulf news report on Dubai limiting 
financing for Iran, if true, also lends credence to a relative 
decline in the hospitable business climate for Iranians in Dubai. 
 
9.(U) This message was cleared by Embassy Abu Dhabi. 
 
 
ASGARD 
BURNS