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PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #3349/01 2811237
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 081237Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3755
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAGHDAD 003349 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2017 
TAGS: ECON EPET ENGR PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: NINEWA:  FUEL DELIVERIES UP, BUT IMPORTS NEEDED TO 
MEET DEMANDS 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 775 
 
Classified By: Ninewa PRT Deputy Leader Jerome Sebastyn for reasons 1.4 
 (b) and (d). 
 
This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) Ninewa's fuel supplies have increased since the end of 
last 
winter but remain critically short of the province's needs. 
Despite 
improvements in kerosene, diesel and gasoline deliveries from 
the Baiji 
Oil Refinery, Northern Oil Distribution Company (NODC) 
General Director 
Mohammed al-Zibari said in a meeting with PRT officers 
September 30 
that supplies to Ninewa cover only about 25 percent of 
demand.  While 
improvements in coordination and delivery at the Baiji 
facility could 
further boost Ninewa's fuel deliveries, increased imports are 
needed to 
cover the balance of provincial demand that cannot be met by 
domestic 
supply, according to al-Zibari and PRT analysis.  With 
winter's near- 
freezing temperatures approaching, resolution of outstanding 
fuel 
import issues is needed to avoid a repeat of last winter's 
fuel crisis, 
which resulted in sharply reduced agricultural productivity 
and a 
reversion to wood-fueled fires for home heating and cooking 
(reftel). 
 
--------------------------------- 
Overall Fuel Delivery Trend is Up 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Fuel deliveries to Ninewa from the Baiji Oil 
Refinery are the 
province's only significant legal source of kerosene, diesel 
and 
gasoline.  Deliveries of all three increased from 91,020 
cubic meters 
in March to 123,372 cubic meters in August, according to 
refinery 
records kept by Baiji-based Coalition Forces (CF) who have 
been 
coordinating closely with refinery management.  One fuel 
truck is 
approximately 34.09 cubic meters.  This raw increase in the 
amount of 
fuel delivered to Ninewa also represents an improvement in 
the 
percentage of the province's ever-changing Ministry of Oil 
fuel 
allocation that actually gets delivered.  As of September, 
the province 
received between 50 and 80 percent of its allocation in all 
three 
fuels, compared to between 27 and 50 percent in April. 
Broken down by 
fuel type and analyzed to compare a three-week period in 
April with a 
three-week period in September, CF data indicates that Ninewa 
received: 
 
- Kerosene: During the April period, CF said the province 
picked up 
6,068 cubic meters of kerosene, which represented 48 percent 
of the 
province's 12,600 cubic meter allocation from the Ministry of 
Oil. 
During the September period, CF said the province picked up 
17710 cubic 
meters of kerosene, which represented 80 percent of the 
province's 
22,022 cubic meter allocation.  Kerosene for home heating is 
particularly important in Ninewa during the winter, when 
average 
temperatures hover just above freezing. 
 
 
BAGHDAD 00003349  002 OF 004 
 
 
- Diesel: During the April period, CF said the province 
picked up 9,781 
cubic meters of diesel, which represented 27 percent of the 
province's 
35,880 cubic meter allotment.  During the September period, 
CF said the 
province picked up 19,865 cubic meters of diesel, which 
represented 60 
percent of the province's 33,222 cubic meter allocation. 
Diesel is 
crucial to the province's farmers, who need it to run both 
their 
tractors and their generator-powered irrigation pumps during 
the winter 
rains planting season. 
 
- Gasoline: During the April period, CF said the province 
picked up 
11,386 cubic meters of gasoline, which represented 41 percent 
of the 
province's 28,080 cubic meter allotment.  During the 
September period, 
CF said the province picked up 17,420 cubic meters of 
gasoline, which 
represented 50 percent of the province's 35,035 cubic meter 
allocation. 
Gasoline is important for transportation, shipping and 
electrical 
generators. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
NODC Numbers Lag CF and Provincial Data 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) When fuel trucks arrive in Ninewa from Baiji, 
provincial 
officials at the Provincial Joint Command Center in Mosul 
count the 
incoming deliveries.  Those Provincial numbers of incoming 
trucks 
consistently line up with the CF numbers for fuel trucks that 
left 
Baiji with the province's fuel.  The Northern Oil 
Distribution Company, 
which is responsible for ultimate distribution to the 
province's gas 
stations, also reports the amount Ninewa receives from Baiji. 
 However, 
the NODC's numbers tend to be less than the CF and Provincial 
numbers, 
albeit still representing an increase from the spring.  In 
the three- 
week September period, for example, the NODC reported 
receiving only 66 
percent of the kerosene, 57 percent of the diesel and 90 
percent of the 
gasoline that CF and Provincial data said had been picked up 
from 
Baiji. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
GOI Confronting the Thriving Black Market 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Effects of the shortage of supply are seen in the long 
lines of 
cars waiting for fuel in Mosul.  Al-Zibari estimated that 
fuel 
deliveries from Baiji meet only one-quarter of provincial 
demand. 
Under these conditions, the black market thrives.  According 
to al- 
Zibari's figures tracking black market prices, a liter of 
gasoline is 
consistently Iraqi Dinars 1,225 on the black market 
(approximately USD 
0.98), compared to the official rate of ID 450 per liter, 
including 
local taxes (approximately USD 0.36).  For diesel, the spread 
between 
official and black market rates is ID 725 per liter 
(approximately USD 
0.58) versus ID 400 (approximately USD 0.32), compared to a 
kerosene 
spread of ID 750 per liter (approximately USD 0.60) versus ID 
200 
(approximately USD 0.16).  These NODC black market estimates 
roughly 
 
BAGHDAD 00003349  003 OF 004 
 
 
match CF reporting.  Al-Zibari said he is confronting the 
black market 
through investigations and closures of licensed fuel stations 
that sell 
at black market rates.  The Mosul mayor said he has performed 
similar 
investigations within the city.  Al-Zibari said 20 such 
stations had 
their licenses suspended in September.  Meanwhile, he went on 
local 
satellite television station Al Mosulia for three hours in 
late 
September to answer questions and complaints from Ninewa 
residents 
about the province's fuel shortage. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Al-Zibari: Baiji Cannot Meet Demand, Imports Needed 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5. (C) Some of the unmet 75 percent of Ninewa demand could be 
covered 
by increased deliveries from Baiji as CF facilitation 
improves 
coordination among the NODC, Ninewa liaison officers in Baiji 
and 
refinery officials, al-Zibari said.  However, the full 
Ministry of Oil 
fuel allocation for Ninewa represents less than half of total 
provincial demand, he said.  Al-Zibari argued that a 
comprehensive 
solution to the province's fuel shortage requires increased 
imports. 
He said three possibilities exist: 
 
- Turkey: Al-Zibari said Turkish companies contracted to the 
GOI could 
provide the entirety of Ninewa's winter kerosene needs of 4-5 
million 
liters per day.  However, he complained that since 2006 he 
had not 
received from the Ministry of Oil funds to make such 
purchases. This 
same issue has festered at the ministerial level since last 
winter 
(reftel). 
 
- Syria: Fuel imports to Ninewa from Syria under a 2003 
agreement have 
been sporadic because of Syrian drivers' fears of terrorist 
attacks on 
their convoys and border security restrictions on trucks 
entering Iraq. 
Al-Zibari displayed a plan approved September 11 by Minister 
of Oil 
Husayn al Shahristani to overcome these challenges by 
building paired 
Iraqi and Syrian depots, connected by a one-kilometer 
pipeline, at 
their shared border in northwestern Ninewa. 
 
- Private: The Oil Product Import law - "Law Nine" - allows 
for the 
private importation of fuel, though only the Kurdish Regional 
Government currently takes advantage of this opportunity. 
Al-Zibari 
said private importers could fill some of Ninewa's fuel 
shortage but 
they fear competing directly with the subsidized prices that 
government 
stations offer.  Private fuel convoy security concerns would 
also 
hamper private importers just as they affect Syrian truckers 
now.  Al- 
Zibari said no companies have yet applied for private 
importation 
licenses for Ninewa.  Nonetheless, al-Zibari acknowledged 
that the 
spread in prices between the black market and the government 
stations 
proves that there is an opportunity for profit that companies 
could 
successfully exploit. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
Way Forward: Improve Distribution and Imports, Cut Subsidies 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
 
BAGHDAD 00003349  004 OF 004 
 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: The marginal increase in fuel deliveries to 
Ninewa is 
welcome news.  However, provincial supply is still far below 
demand, 
particularly in the critical home heating, agriculture and 
transportation sectors.  Even if Ninewa received its full 
Ministry of 
Oil allocation, the province would have insufficient fuel. 
Further, 
the gap between reported fuel deliveries from Baiji and 
reported NODC 
receipts in Ninewa indicates a need to focus on transparent, 
accountable and effective fuel distribution within the 
province. 
 
¶8. (C) Even as the PRT works with CF to address 
provincial-level 
solutions to fuel supply, a wholesale increase in supply 
through 
increased imports is essential.  Financing for Turkish 
imports and 
conclusion of a Syrian fuel import arrangement, both of which 
must be 
pursued at the ministerial level, would be welcome positive 
steps to 
achieving sufficient provincial fuel supply.  Private imports 
remain a 
possibility for the future, though only in conjunction with 
security 
improvements and reduced fuel subsidies.  While the subsidies 
are 
politically popular, the current Ninewa black market fuel 
prices 
approximate world prices and demonstrate that the province's 
residents 
are already buying much of their fuel at a globally 
competitive rate. 
Liberalization of the fuel economy through increased imports 
and 
reduced subsidies would likely not only improve supply but 
may also 
reduce price as the driving forces of the black market are 
eliminated. 
End Comment. 
CROCKER