VZCZCXRO8776
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0050/01 2251314
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 131314Z AUG 07
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0160
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0110
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0144
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0153

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000050 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; BAKU FOR HAUGEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  8/13/2027 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR CASC
SUBJECT: IRAN ANNOUNCES ESFANDIARI, TAJBAKHSH INVESTIGATION OVER, BUT 
OMITS NEXT STEP 
 
REF: IRPO DUBAI 0045 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000050  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence 
Office, Dubai, US Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
1.(S/NF) Summary:  Iran's judiciary put out a statement, as 
reported August 12, that it had completed its investigations 
into the case of two detained Iranian-Americans, Haleh 
Esfandiari and Kian Tajbakhsh, without stating what would happen 
next.  Unconfirmed evidence suggests that Iran may feel it has 
accomplished much of what it wanted with their arrests and may 
be seeking to de-escalate the situation, including a report that 
Esfandiari's jailers were looking for a reason to release her. 
In this light, IRPO recommends low-key press guidance on this 
latest development that does not give the government any excuse 
not to release them.  This stance will need to be revisited once 
the judiciary announces the next step in their cases.  End 
summary 
 
2.(U) Iran's judiciary put out a statement, as reported August 
12, that it had completed its investigations into the case of 
two detained Iranian-Americans, Haleh Esfandiari and Kian 
Tajbakhsh.  Esfandiari, a director at the Woodrow Wilson Center 
in Washington, and Tajbaksh, a consultant with the Open Society 
Institute, have been detained since May on allegations that they 
were trying to spark a "soft" revolution in Iran.  According to 
the deputy prosecutor, the two detainees must complete a series 
of (undefined) written tasks before their fate is decided.  The 
prosecutor added that Iranian-American Ali Shakeri's case has no 
connection to the cases of Esfandiari and Tajbakhsh and gave no 
further information about his case.  He made no mention of 
Iranian-American journalist Parnaz Azima's case.  (Note: Shakeri 
is also imprisoned; Azima has not been detained but her passport 
was taken by the government.  Endnote) 
 
Served their purpose? 
-------------------------- 
 
3.(C) While it is unclear whether the judiciary's statement 
means they will be released or be prosecuted for crimes against 
the state, there are several indications that Iran may be 
seeking to de-escalate this controversial issue that has brought 
(well-deserved) domestic and international criticism upon the 
government.  It is possible that Iran may feel it has already 
gained as much as it can from the arrests - by creating a 
chilling effect regarding contacts with the US with the airing 
of their "confessions" and showing that the US cannot protect 
anyone within the borders of Iran - while realizing that a trade 
for Iranians detained in Iraq is not likely.  While it is 
difficult to gauge the reaction in Iran to the "documentary" 
about Esfandiari, Tajbakhsh, and recently released academic 
Ramin Jahanbegloo, one Iranian told IRPoff that after the film, 
she had the impression that they had done "something" wrong. 
 
4.(U) A July 21 editorial in Tehran Hezbollah, commenting on the 
televised "confessions," wrote, "These confessions proved that 
the hegemonic system's antagonism toward the Muslim world, and 
the Islamic Republic especially, has taken on a new form in the 
past decade, appearing as efforts to promote freedom, democracy 
and....This attractive appearance has unfortunately managed to 
deceive many academics and journalists at home.  In the most 
optimistic scenarios, they intended to serve the nation.  They 
were fooled by America's crocodile tears for this nation and 
unknowingly drawn into a soft subversion project.  In recent 
years, there have been many like Jahanbegloo and Tajbakhsh who 
have infiltrated Iran's academic and media centers, twisting the 
minds of students, journalists and researchers to serve the 
interests of the hegemonic system.  These confessions could 
serve as a warning to them and their audience to change their 
paths from pleasing the White House to serving the nation." 
 
5.(S/NF) Despite the hyperbole, one former Iranian politician 
called televised "confessions" a useless tool in Iran.  In an 
email communication with IRPO Director, the reformer said 
politicians do not accept such media spectacles.  Reformist 
Iranian newspaper Hambastegi declared the era of televised 
confessions over.  It criticized the government for broadcasting 
statements of supposed opponents of the Islamic Republic who 
have not even been put on trial. 
 
Looking to release Esfandiari? 
------------------------------------ 
 
6.(S/NF) According to the politician -- considered a reliable 
source -- a recently released political prisoner who was 
reportedly held close to Esfandiari in Evin prison claimed to 
have heard the jailers were looking for a way to release 
Esfandiari.  That person indicated Esfandiari is not being 
treated badly, in relative terms, although it was noted that 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000050  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
there is no way that solitary confinement in Evin could be 
anything but bad. 
 
No further arrests reported 
-------------------------------- 
 
7.(U) As reported July 25, Iranian Intelligence Minister Ejei 
said authorities had detained several people for having ties 
with two Iranian-Americans arrested in May, calling those 
detained "local agents" part of "network" used by Esfandiari and 
Tajbakhsh.  On July 31, the Iranian judiciary spokesman 
clarified Ejei's statements, saying no one has been arrested. 
 
8.(S/NF) IRPO has been seeking out information about the 
situation of people we know to have had past ties to US think 
tanks, including Woodrow Wilson Center, and have not to date 
heard of any arrests directly linked to this investigation.  The 
government's overall clampdown on civil society continues 
unabated, however. 
 
- One Iranian-American who says he was repeatedly interrogated 
over the past few months about his past affiliations with US 
think tanks and Esfandiari was never taken into custody and was 
recently allowed to leave the country.  He does not plan to 
return any time soon. 
 
- One Iranian academic who had a fellowship at a Washington 
think tank in the past had his passport taken by the government 
when he returned to Iran this summer, but he indicates by email 
he is confident it will be returned soon.  He is trying to 
return to a fellowship at a US university. 
 
- One Iranian analyst who gave several lectures at Woodrow 
Wilson Center has reportedly not been detained. 
 
- Another Iranian who has lectured at Woodrow Wilson Center and 
who is currently in the US plans to return shortly to Iran. 
 
9.(S/NF) Comment:  A number of Iranians have told IRPoffs that 
based on similar incidents in the past, they believe the four 
Iranian-Americans currently in prison or without their passports 
will soon be released.  We would note, however, that the current 
government seems less predictable than previous ones.  In the 
view of the former politician, if the US government engages Iran 
directly to try to get the Iranian-Americans  released, Iran 
will make demands such as an end to democracy funding or a swap 
with Iranian detainees in Iraq; conversely, if the US calls for 
their unconditional release, Iran is likely to hold them longer 
in prison.  The politician thought indirect channels such as the 
EU and the UN would likely be more effective. 
 
10.(S) Comment Continued:  If it is true that the Iranian 
authorities are looking for a reason to release Esfandiari -- 
and hopefully, the others -- this recent announcement could be 
the first step.  Esfandiari's aired "confession," in particular, 
did not contain anything truly incriminating, although that 
would not stop the government from pursuing the case if it 
chose.  In any case, IRPO recommends that until Iran's next 
announcement on their case, USG public statements should be 
restrained in tone, saying simply that we hope this announcement 
indicates that these two, as well as Shakeri, will soon be 
released and that all, including Azima, be allowed to leave the 
country.  If Iran's next statement is that the detainees will be 
put on trial, we should then greatly increase the pressure. 
BURNS