VZCZCXRO9873
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #0721 2041245
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 231245Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0100
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000721 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TO DISSOLVE MADAGASCAR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
 
REF: ANTANANARIVO 715 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  President Marc Ravalomanana announced July 20 his 
intention to dissolve the National Assembly and call legislative 
elections.  His justifications include "realignment" with his 
Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) and the recent Constitutional 
Referendum; the Deputies' terms are also set to expire.  While 
apparently constitutionally legal, critics suspect a power grab, 
particularly if the President uses his authority to legislate during 
the period between dissolution and new elections.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) President Marc Ravalomanana announced in a public meeting 
July 20 he plans to dissolve the National Assembly in the "near 
future" in order to align the lower house of the legislature with 
the amended Constitution and the MAP.  Taken by surprise, political 
observers do not know what to make of the President's cryptic 
justification, but political parties have started meeting to 
prepare.  Madagascar has a bicameral Parliament; the National 
Assembly has 160 seats and is popularly elected, whereas the Senate 
contains a mixture of elected and appointed seats.  For the 
dissolution to be official it must be formally published by the 
Council of Ministers. 
 
¶3. (U) The President's decision appears to be constitutional. 
Article 98 of the Constitution stipulates the President is allowed 
to dissolve the National Assembly for "determining causes," which he 
does not have to specify.  The timing is also appropriate given the 
Deputies' five year mandate is about to expire; the last elections 
were held in the fall of 2002.  Perhaps because their term was 
almost up anyway, many opposition figures have welcomed the 
announcement of new elections. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Opposition parties are also claiming Ravalomanana is 
looking to solidify his power in the midst of internal divisions 
within his TIM (Tiako I'Madagasikara) political party.  TIM members 
comprise the majority at the National Assembly, but in recent months 
a dissident wing of TIM has been meeting independently to discuss 
ways to reenergize the party.  Feeling increasingly marginalized by 
Ravalomanana, they seek ways to hold the executive branch more 
accountable to the party line.  The National Assembly largely serves 
to "rubber stamp" the Government of Madagascar's (GOM) initiatives, 
but with the budget session set to begin in September some critics 
wonder whether the President is calling new elections in order to 
stack the Assembly with loyalists to support his initiatives. 
Further, some critics wonder whether the move is a "power grab," 
given the President has the authority to legislate in the absence of 
a sitting National Assembly.  Article 100 of the Constitution 
stipulates the President can legislate in case of emergency or 
catastrophe; Article 156 stipulates that in times of transition, the 
President can legislate by ordinance on issues regarding the 
establishment and functioning of decentralized institutions.  The 
potential impact on issues such as regional budgets is still 
unclear. 
 
¶5. (U) The issue of electoral code reform has been gathering steam 
in political circles since the international community started 
advocating for a single ballot and an independent electoral 
commission.  Post notes the dissolution of the National Assembly 
essentially puts off the debate until after legislative elections, 
perhaps until 2008. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT:  Although dissolution of the National Assembly is 
constitutional, it only adds to the perception the President is 
making unilateral decisions for political gain (reftel).  For 
example the new constitution -- unlike the previous one - does not 
require the legislature to ratify Presidential legislation 
promulgated during periods of transition or emergency.  With a 
combative Parliament this might be an important change, but it is 
difficult to see that it would matter much at present given the 
docility of the President's first term legislature.  Only two days 
earlier, the Prime Minister had called for a "political hiatus" 
during the Indian Ocean Games set to start August 9, which is also 
fueling speculation over the lack of the communication within the 
GOM.  The dissolution of the National Assembly will essentially 
freeze all legislation until the new Assembly is in place, as the 
Senate can only serve as a consultative body for the GOM in the 
meantime.  Once the dissolution has been formally published, Post 
will closely monitor the impact during the transition period.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY