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C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001346 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PACKAGE GOES BACK 
TO SEZER, UNDER A CLOUD 
 
REF: ANKARA 1114 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b 
,d) 
 
 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT. On May 31st, Parliament 
re-passed the constitutional amendment package that would, 
i.a., provide for direct popular election of the president, 
over President Sezer's initial veto.  The package now bounces 
back to Sezer.  After 15 days, Sezer can either approve it or 
send it to referendum, in whole or in part.  Unless 
parliament shortens the existing 120-day waiting period, a 
referendum could be possible by mid-October.  Meanwhile, the 
opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has indicated it 
intends to challenge the amendment package in the 
Constitutional Court, an option President Sezer himself may 
exploit.  Even some in the ruling Justice and Development 
Party (AKP) are uneasy with the railroading approach their 
party has taken on a topic most feel would have been better 
achieved with a new parliament after public debate and a less 
hasty course of action.  Two things are for sure: no one 
really knows what will happen, and AKP's insistence (abetted 
by the Motherland Party ANAVATAN) is helping keep the 
political temperature high.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
¶2. (U) Following President Sezer's initial veto of the 
constitutional amendment package, which would change the 
presidential election to a popular (rather than 
parliamentary) vote, convert the presidency to a renewable 
5-year term (rather than a single 7-year term), and make 
general elections every four (rather than five) years, passed 
as a whole with 370 votes.  The first and least controversial 
article, reducing the parliamentary term to four years, only 
received 366 votes in the initial break-out vote. 
 
¶3. (C) President Sezer has three options now.  The amendment 
passed with more than a two-thirds majority, compelling him 
after 15 days to either promulgate the amendment or send it 
to referendum, according to Article 174 of the Constitution. 
Article 148 also stipulates that the president or one-fifth 
of parliament may refer the amendment to the Constitutional 
Court for verification of form -- in other words, whether 
parliament followed proper procedures. 
 
¶4. (U) Deputy Chairman of the CHP, Ali Topuz, has already 
said that CHP may apply to the Court as early as today. 
Former Chief Prosecutor Sabih Kanadoglu, who has been 
publicly railing against the package using a variety of 
procedural and substantive objections, claims the Court will 
annul the amendments. 
 
¶5. (C) The truth is, no one really knows what will happen. 
Even AKP contacts worry that continuing to push the package 
only further ratchets up tensions.  They are concerned, too, 
that time tables could be pushed out of sync.  Two high-level 
party members worried that if the president holds onto the 
amendment package for 15 days before sending it to 
referendum, the mid-October referendum date will be awkward 
for the new parliament, whose first task should be electing 
the president but who may be forced to wait for the 
referendum in train.  This risks potentially tying up the 
process for months.  (An AKP MP today introduced a draft to 
change the law on referendums and shorten the waiting 
period).  A strong secularist with whom we spoke believes the 
Court will annul the package on procedural grounds: namely, 
that as parliament had been unable to elect a president, it 
had set an election date and thus had no further business 
pursuing new legislation. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON