VZCZCXRO7172
RR RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD
DE RUEHAK #1176/01 1361437
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161437Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2128
INFO RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RUEHZN/EST COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 0147
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA 1948
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 2707

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001176 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USDOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON 
USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: ENGR SENV EAGR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY LOOKS SERIOUSLY AT KYOTO PROTOCOL 
 
REF: ANKARA 639 
 
ANKARA 00001176  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Turkey is a signatory to the UN Framework 
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), but has never signed the 
Kyoto Protocol.  Turkish officials are looking seriously at the 
Kyoto Protocol, both because adopting it is a requirement of the 
daunting environment chapter of the EU "acquis communautaires" and 
because of increasing public awareness of the risks of climate 
change.  A drought in central Anatolia, including Ankara, and 
perceptions of unseasonable and increasing temperatures are feeding 
public concerns that Turkey would be especially hurt by climate 
change.  Officials believe that Turkey should be able to negotiate 
special obligations given that Turkey is a "developing developed" 
country.  Last spring, Turkey created a special parliamentary 
commission to investigate climate change and it will send a 
significant delegation to the next framework convention meeting in 
Bonn.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
Background - Turkey is Special 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) When the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) 
was adopted in 1992, Turkey, as an OECD member, was included among 
the so-called Annex I and Annex II countries.  Under the convention, 
Annex I countries have to take steps to reduce emissions and Annex 
II countries have to take steps to provide financial and technical 
assistance to developing countries.  However, in comparison to other 
countries in these annexes, Turkey was at a relatively early stage 
of industrialization and had a lower level of economic development 
as well as a lower means of assisting developing countries.  Turkey 
was not given a quantified emissions reduction or limitation 
objective in the Kyoto Protocol.  Following a number of 
negotiations, in 2001 Turkey was finally removed from the list of 
Annex II countries but remained on the list of Annex I countries 
with an accompanying footnote specifying that Turkey should enjoy 
favorable conditions considering differentiated responsibilities. 
This led to an official acceptance of the UNFCCC by the Turkish 
Parliament in October 2003, followed by its enactment in May 2004. 
Turkey has not, however, signed the Kyoto Protocol. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Need to Engage in the Kyoto Protocol Process 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) According to MFA Environment Department Head Nursel 
Berberoglu, Turkey is now seriously looking at the Kyoto Protocol, 
noting that Turkey will send an ample multi-agency delegation 
(Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Environment, Energy, and Industry) 
of over twenty officials to the UNFCCC meeting in Bonn May 14-18. 
As evidence of how Turkey is looking seriously at the issue, she 
cited creation of a National Climate Change Coordination Group, a 
Parliamentary commission on climate change last March, and a number 
of studies by the State Planning Organization (SPO).  Berberoglu 
emphasized that -- as part of the EU accession process -- Turkey 
would eventually have to accede to the Kyoto Protocol as one of the 
key "acquis communautaire" in the difficult environment chapter. 
Therefore, Turkey needs to quickly gain information and develop a 
strategy for dealing with climate change and the Kyoto obligations, 
for example positioning itself for potentially joining the post 2012 
commitment period, perhaps in synchrony with EU accession.  She 
noted that post-2012 negotiations under Kyoto are to end in 2009, so 
Turkey should quickly engage in the process.  Moreover, Berberoglu 
expected that Turkey should be able to negotiate special commitments 
given Turkey's exception in the UNFCCC and in recognition that it is 
a "developing developed" nation. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Berberoglu complained that press coverage of a recently 
completed SPO report was sensational, only high-lighting worst-case 
scenarios of significant obligations that would allegedly reduce 
Turkey's future GDP by 15% to 35%.  In fact, she noted that the SPO 
report was quite balanced and neutral, aiming to provide information 
and alternatives to help policy makers make informed decisions on 
the Kyoto Protocol.  She stressed that Turkey was now committed to 
dealing with climate change, emphasizing wide interest in relevant 
ministries.  MFA plays the coordinating role for Turkey's 
participation in the relevant international processes and the 
Ministry of Environment is the focal point within Turkey. 
 
------------------------- 
Need to Inform the Public 
------------------------- 
 
ANKARA 00001176  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Regional Environment Center Turkey (REC) has been 
designated by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry as the 
National Focal Point for the UNFCCC Article 6 on Education, 
Training, and Public Awareness.  REC Director Sibel Eralp and 
Climate Change Project Manager Yunus Arikan emphasized their role in 
informing the public and the government, rather than directly 
advocating.  They were pleased that key Ministries of Energy and 
Industry, as well as SPO, had overcome initial reluctance and 
resistance on climate change policy.  Eralp stated that the recently 
formed Parliamentary Commission, headed by a Parliamentarian who is 
an environmental engineer, had taken a thorough and exhaustive 
approach, listening to all stakeholders.  They lamented press 
coverage that continued to emphasize overly negative worst-case 
scenarios and recognized that REC needed to redouble its efforts to 
inform the public.  Eralp and Arikan stated that the Istanbul 
Municipality was advancing independent initiatives, like localities 
in the United States. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Over the past few years, Energy Ministry officials have 
emphasized their commitment to reducing energy import dependency and 
more efficient use of energy resources, including adoption of new 
renewable energy and energy efficiency laws.  Industry observers 
view these developments as positive, but note that investment 
incentives are often not clear in their length of term or 
quantification.  The Energy, Agriculture, and Environment Ministers 
recently jointly expressed their commitment to devise a national 
strategy for combating climate change in Turkey (ref). 
 
¶7.  (U) Turkey's Ministry of Environment recently published Turkey's 
First National Communication on Climate Change, in cooperation with 
the UNDP.  The 265-page report aims to satisfy a UNFCCC requirement 
to raise public awareness by providing extensive background and 
explanation, an inventory of greenhouse gases, and possible 
mitigation measures that could be employed.  The report highlights 
"Turkey's special circumstances" gained with respect to the UNFCCC 
process.  The Turkish Ministry of Environment has the lead in 
formulating a national strategy for action on climate change, 
including harmonization of policies with the general environmental 
policies of the EU. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment: The economic cost argument against Kyoto is 
compelling in Turkey.  However, the Turkish public is increasingly 
concerned about a current drought threatening Ankara and central 
Anatolia's water supply and the long-term threat of climate change 
on drought-prone Turkey (ref).  While Turkish officials and public 
are increasingly skeptical about Turkey's prospects for EU 
accession, there is a broad commitment within the government to 
advance work on completion of specific chapters, such as 
environment, recognized as one of the most difficult and expensive. 
Our reading of the SPO study is that it was quite balanced and 
recent press coverage of it was unfairly sensational.  The 
parliamentary commission on climate change is viewed as very 
effective; however current political turmoil and the election 
calendar will put serious efforts on climate change on hold. 
 
Wilson