VZCZCXRO0018
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSQ #0257/01 0891251
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301251Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5907
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3668

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SKOPJE 000257 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE (PFEUFFER) AND H (HELEN KIM) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR STAFFDEL KILLION'S 
APRIL 4 VISIT 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Welcome to Macedonia!  Your visit to Skopje will 
give you the chance to hear the Macedonian perspective on 
Kosovo, to share your findings with high-level government and 
ethnic Albanian political leaders, and to deliver some 
important messages to the Macedonian government (GOM) on 
steps they need to take to strengthen their NATO membership 
candidacy. 
 
 
CORE MESSAGES 
 
 
--On Kosovo: 
 
Continue constructive support for Ahtisaari plan, maintain 
low-profile public position on border demarcation (which is 
adequately addressed in the Ahtisaari plan).  We understand 
that Macedonia will be neither among the first, nor among the 
last to recognize Kosovo's independence. 
 
--On NATO accession: 
 
Need to work toward broad political consensus for 
implementing reforms required for NATO and EU membership. 
U.S. supports your NATO aspirations, but you must meet 
membership criteria. 
 
--On political dialogue: 
 
Pursue and sustain compromise and consensus-building with 
opposition parties, especially ethnic Albanian DUI party, on 
key legislation and implementation of reforms, including 
Ohrid Framework Agreement implementation. 
 
--On the name issue: 
 
Avoid provoking Greece.  Continue to work through UN process 
on a mutually acceptable compromise. 
 
 
POLITICAL CONTEXT -- DIALOGUE INCHES FORWARD 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) The inter-ethnic (ethnic Macedonian and ethnic 
Albanian) governing coalition headed by Prime Minister 
Gruevski's VMRO-DPMNE party was sworn-in on August 26.  From 
the beginning, the GOM was unable to find a way to work 
effectively with the ethnic Albanian DUI party, which won the 
majority of eAlbanian votes in the July parliamentary 
elections but was not included in the governing coalition. 
(NOTE: Having won the majority of eAlbanian votes, DUI 
considers itself "out of government" but not/not in the 
"opposition.") 
 
¶3. (SBU) Following US and EU-facilitated talks between the 
leaderships of VMRO-DPMNE and DUI in early March, there was 
some modest improvement in political dialogue between the 
parties. Working group consultations between VMRO-DPMNE and 
DUI (with U.S. and EU presence as observers) are underway to 
find a compromise on key legislative initiatives.  Both 
parties have failed to make all the efforts necessary to 
reach a real compromise, but DUI in particular seems 
entrenched in its positions and unwilling to engage in 
genuine negotiations. 
 
 
FRAMEWORK IMPLEMENTATION -- MISSION NOT YET ACCOMPLISHED 
 
 
¶4. (U) The government has stated its commitment to full 
implementation of the 2001 Framework Agreement (FWA) that 
ended the inter-ethnic conflict in Macedonia that same year. 
In fact, all FWA-required legislative requirements have been 
met, most having been passed by the previous government. 
Implementation of decentralization (the devolution of power 
from the central government to local governments), and of 
equitable representation of ethnic minorities in public 
administration, was launched successfully over a year ago. 
The challenge for this government is to build on what was 
achieved by its predecessor and to fully implement 
decentralization without excessive partisanship in the 
allocation of jobs or funds. Several FWA-related projects -- 
including a law on languages -- remain to be completed, and 
the government must demonstrate results in implementing 
FWA-related reforms. 
 
 
SKOPJE 00000257  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
NATO AND EU MEMBERSHIP -- REFORMS MUTUALLY REINFORCING 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The government has stated its commitment to NATO and 
EU membership as top foreign policy priorities, and is 
supported by opinion polls showing 90 percent or higher 
public support for membership in both organizations. 
Nevertheless, the difficulty the government has shown in 
managing effectively intra-coalition and 
government-opposition relations has hampered initial progress 
on the rule of law, judicial reform, and other political and 
economic criteria Macedonia needs to fulfill to be considered 
a strong candidate for membership in either organization. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Macedonia could be a competitive candidate for a 
NATO invitation at the next enlargement summit, given its 
strong performance on defense reforms and its contributions 
to NATO operations in Afghanistan.  Government interlocutors 
need to hear, however, that to achieve that goal the GOM must 
work effectively with DUI to overcome the current political 
impasse and find a mechanism for building broad consensus 
with opposition members for economic and other NATO-related 
reforms.  In addition, the government must show concrete 
results in fighting corruption in a non-partisan manner, 
redouble efforts to combat trafficking in persons, and pass a 
religious freedom law that guarantees all religious 
communities and groups the right to register and worship 
freely in Macedonia. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Although Macedonia received EU candidate status in 
December 2005, it has yet to receive an invitation from 
Brussels to begin accession negotiations.  The government 
received an assessment from the EU in early November 2006 on 
its progress in meeting the EU acquis.  That EU assessment 
pointed to the need for political consensus in pursuing 
reforms, especially in police and judicial reforms; continued 
implementation of the FWA; and the need to show results in 
combating corruption as some of the challenges the country 
will need to overcome before it can expect to begin EU 
accession negotiations. 
 
 
KOSOVO FINAL STATUS -- BORDER DEMARCATION AND TIMING OF 
RECOGNITION 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) The government's position on Kosovo final status has 
been closely aligned with ours -- support for UN Special 
Envoy Ahtisaari's plan for Kosovo status, which adequately 
resolves the question of demarcation of the Macedonia-Kosovo 
border. (NOTE: The border was delineated, but not demarcated, 
in a 2001 agreement between Belgrade and Skopje, which 
Pristina rejects due to the fact that some of Kosovo's 
territory was ceded to Macedonia in that agreement.) 
Relations overall are good, with regular meetings between 
Skopje and Pristina and an interim free trade agreement 
signed between Macedonia and UNMIK/Pristina in 2005.  The GOM 
has indicated it does not want to rush a decision on 
recognition of an independent Kosovo.  At the same time, it 
is determined not be among the last countries to do so, given 
the importance of gaining Pristina's confidence prior to 
beginning the process of border demarcation. 
 
 
NAME DISPUTE -- CONTINUE UN PROCESS 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Discussions between Greece and Macedonia on the 
dispute over the latter's right to use its constitutional 
name -- Republic of Macedonia -- continue under UN auspices. 
The GOM has reiterated its "dual name" proposal (a mutually 
agreed upon name for use in bilateral relations with Greece, 
and the constitutional name for all other bilateral relations 
and for use in multilateral fora) as the basis for further 
discussions with the Greek government.  Athens has rejected 
that proposal.  The USG recognized Macedonia's constitutional 
name in 2004 for use in our bilateral relations.  We continue 
to urge both sides to be flexible and to work toward 
compromise on this sensitive issue through participation in 
the talks under UN auspices in New York. 
 
ECONOMIC GROWTH -- NEED STABLE POLITICAL BASE 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) PM Gruevski's top-priority goal is fostering 
 
SKOPJE 00000257  003 OF 003 
 
 
economic growth and development, a goal we share.  The GOM is 
aiming for a 6-8 percent annual GDP growth rate during its 
mandate, compared to the approximately 4.0 percent rate it 
inherited from the previous government.  The government hopes 
to achieve that growth rate through tax cuts and a flat tax, 
through fiscal stimulus, and by attracting foreign direct 
investment.  Overall, the macro-economic climate remains 
positive, with low inflation and a stable exchange rate.  A 
US firm (Milwaukee-based Johnson Controls) recently broke 
ground for the first major greenfield investment in 
Macedonia's free trade zone near Skopje, a promising 
investment "coup" for Macedonia.  Nevertheless, the 
government should accept that more robust economic growth 
requires the political stability that will accompany improved 
inter-ethnic relations and a more consensus-based approach to 
implementing reforms. 
MILOVANOVIC