VZCZCXRO3156
PP RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHCHI #0046/01 0720125
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 130125Z MAR 07
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0418
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0009
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 0010
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 0460
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0040
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU PRIORITY 0048

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000046 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/13/2017 
TAGS: PREL PHUM SNAR TH BM
SUBJECT: SHAN MILITIA LEADER REACHES OUT TO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000046  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: John Spykerman, Con/Pol Officer, Consulate 
General Chiang Mai, Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
 
¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Leaders of the Restoration Council of Shan 
State (RCSS) and Shan State Army-South (SSA-S) have invited 
Consulate General staff and other members of the international 
community in northern Thailand to visit Shan villages on the 
Thai-Burma border, seeking to draw attention to human rights 
abuses in Burma's Shan State and boost the legitimacy of their 
pro-autonomy organizations. ConGen Chiang Mai and Embassy 
Bangkok have declined to meet because of these leaders' ties to 
drug trafficking operations and uncertainty about their current 
relations with other Shan political groups and the Royal Thai 
Army. Local sources familiar with the Shan community note these 
invitations could be the result of political or military 
desperation. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (S/NF) Yawd Muang, "secretary of foreign affairs" for the 
RCSS, an organization that serves as the de facto political wing 
of the SSA-S, contacted Post in early March to invite PolOff to 
visit Shan villages along the Thai-Burma border opposite Mae 
Hong Son province. Yawd Muang said the invitation came from 
SSA-S leader Yawd Serk, who wanted to discuss a variety of 
issues with the U.S. government, including human rights abuses, 
drug trafficking, the ongoing SSA-S military campaign against 
Burma's State Peace and Development (SPDC) forces, and the role 
of his organization in the international dialogue on Burma's 
future. Yawd Muang claimed to have secured the blessing of RTA 
officers to host foreign diplomats in SSA-S territory, located 
mostly in shrinking pockets along the Thai-Burma border. After 
PolOff declined to travel to the border area, Yawd Muang 
requested Post host a meeting with Yawd Serk and other RCSS 
members. 
 
¶3. (S/NF) Taking into account Yawd Serk's involvement in drug 
trafficking (he succeeded infamous drug lord Khun Sa as the 
leader of the armed Shan resistance) and the uneven relationship 
the RCSS has with other Shan groups, ConGen and Embassy Bangkok 
declined the meeting requests. Although Yawd Muang, also known 
as Yordtai or Phillips, said Yawd Serk had led his organization 
away from supporting themselves with drug-trafficking profits, 
multiple sources - SSA-S supporters included - strongly dispute 
this claim, with one source also noting that Yawd Muang himself 
has been the target of drug smuggling investigations by Thai 
police. 
 
¶4. (S/NF) Yawd Serk likely sees himself as having much to gain 
from engaging diplomats, whether or not he faces an imminent 
attack from the Burmese Army. One RTA Pha Muang Task Force 
colonel familiar with the SSA-S said he did not see any signs 
that the SPDC or its United Wa State Army (UWSA) allies would 
mount increased attacks on the SSA-S positions in the near 
future. Although the SSA-S has suffered occasional setbacks 
against the SPDC and UWSA in recent years, its remaining 
positions - especially those along the Thai border - are 
well-protected by terrain and other factors. The only recent 
clashes involving the SSA-S have occurred 25 km deep inside 
Burmese territory, leaving border areas relatively calm and 
allowing Yawd Serk room to plan political maneuvers, RTA sources 
said. However, other sources have observed Burmese military 
units strengthening their positions near SSA-S locations in 
recent weeks, lending more credibility to theories that the 
SSA-S anticipates a military confrontation. 
 
¶5. (S/NF) A representative of the Free Burma Rangers, a relief 
organization that coordinates closely with Burmese ethnic 
groups, added that the SSA-S fears a Burmese Army dry season 
offensive similar in brutality to that faced by the Karen 
National Liberation Army and residents of Karen State last year. 
He said Yawd Serk, worried about diminishing options and 
military resources, could be looking to attract international 
support. 
 
End of the Line, Or Looking for a New Direction? 
----- 
 
¶6. (S/NF) Those familiar with Shan politics say Yawd Serk feels 
increasingly isolated from other Shan groups, such as the 
exile-dominated Interim Shan Government and various Shan human 
rights groups active in northern Thailand that have built ties 
with the international community over the past several years. 
Meanwhile, Yawd Serk's RCSS and SSA-S find themselves largely 
trapped inside Shan State and shut off from the outside world, 
watching other groups obtain international development 
assistance. 
 
¶7. (S/NF) SPDC successes against many of the ethnic resistance 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000046  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
groups, along with the change of government in Thailand, have 
brought the future of the RTG's relationship with Yawd Serk into 
question. A source with the RTG's National Intelligence Agency 
said the NIA and RTA still value having SSA-S forces maintain a 
buffer zone on the border and occasionally turn to them for help 
with counter-narcotics efforts (even if the SSA-S has its own 
suspected narcotics networks). Yet it is unclear how far RTA 
officials are willing to let Yawd Serk reach out to the larger 
Shan population in Thailand to attract the support he needs to 
maintain legitimacy as a leader. 
 
¶8. (S/NF) According to RCSS's Yawd Muang, RTA officials had 
blessed the organization's proposed meetings with diplomats and 
have issued identification cards to certain RCSS and SSA-S 
members to travel in northern Thailand. A local source reported 
that the Japanese Consul General in Chiang Mai initially 
accepted a similar offer to visit Doi Taileng village in 
SSA-S-controlled territory in February. However, the RTA blocked 
the Consul General from reaching the border, suggesting that the 
RTA was less enthusiastic than SSA-S and RCSS members wanted to 
admit or realized. (Note: We are unable to confirm this account, 
as the Japanese Consul General departed post soon after this 
reported trip. End Note.) 
 
¶9. (C) With these higher-level outreach efforts stymied, Yawd 
Serk continues to seek smaller-scale support. Members of the 
Shan community in northern Thailand - of which the NIA estimates 
there are 200,000 - say they receive pressure to send money back 
across the border to the SSA-S, especially for those with 
relatives serving in the resistance. In addition, ethnic Shan in 
Chiang Mai report that Yawd Serk's supporters periodically 
collect donations during festivals and other ceremonies at 
temples attended by Shan. 
 
Comment 
---- 
 
¶10. (S/NF) We remain uncertain exactly why Yawd Serk chose now 
to push for closer contact with the outside world. It may be 
just an ambitious idea from the RCSS "foreign minister" or 
perhaps a sign of desperation in the face of mounting enemy 
forces. Sources familiar with Yawd Serk doubt he would stick 
around for a final military defeat and would likely accept a 
payoff similar to the one that prompted Khun Sa's departure 10 
years ago. However, any BA offensive comparable to last year's 
campaign in Karen State raises concern for vulnerable Shan 
villagers caught between the SPDC's brutal oppression and the 
RTG's refusal to recognize their ethnic cousin Shan as refugees. 
 
¶11. (S/NF) The NIA estimates as many as 300 Shan per day cross 
illegally into Thailand. The prospect of even more spilling over 
the border is likely enough motivation for the RTG to continue 
to value Yawd Serk and his SSA-S as a buffer against the Burmese 
Army and to provide relative stability for Shan villages in 
SSA-S territory. But Yawd Serk likely realizes that toleration 
of his organization by the RTG does not equal credibility, 
especially in the eyes of the international community. With the 
international community paying more attention to Burma and other 
Shan groups gaining legitimacy, the SSA-S probably feels some 
desperation to have the outside world ignore the darker side of 
their operations and treat them as a valid representative of the 
Shan cause in order for them to survive. End Comment. 
CAMP