VZCZCXRO7556
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0276/01 0331441
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 021441Z FEB 07 ZDK NUMEROUS SVCS
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7488
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0102
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0225
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0924
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0776
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0401
RUEHTO/AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 0435

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAKAR 000276 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, S/P, INL, INR/AA AND DRL/AE 
ACCRA FOR USAID/WA 
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO 
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON SNAR PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA BISSAU: GOVERNMENT IS THE ONLY BUSINESS 
 
REF: DAKAR 0124 (NOTAL) 
 
DAKAR 00000276  001.3 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Janice L. Jacobs for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (C) As AF/W desk officer Dorsey Lockhart, PolOff, and PAO 
met with Bissau-Guinean government, NGO, human rights, and 
business leaders, January 24-26, they heard "government is 
the only business in Bissau."  Some might have added that 
narcotics is fast catching on (Reftel).  On January 27, the 
GOGB lifted the arrest warrant for the head of the Party for 
the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), 
Carlos Domingos Gomes Jr., allowing him to return home and 
ending a two week political crisis in which he had taken 
refuge at the United Nations (UN) compound.  The capital is 
calm, and it is business as usual.  However, school teachers 
remain on strike, and salary arrears persist.  Political 
parties remain divided and refuse to open meaningful dialogue 
with each other or the GOGB.  Cashew exports have resumed, 
but the economy is crippled, and there is still no budget for 
the current fiscal year.  Western donors continue to lament 
Guinea-Bissau's problems while China builds new government 
buildings.  END SUMMARY. 
 
STABILITY 
--------- 
¶2.  (U) For the moment, Guinea-Bissau is calm, and it is 
business as usual.  Even when PAIGC leader Carlos Gomes Jr. 
took refuge at the UN compound to avoid arrest for 
implicating President Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira in the 
murder of former Navy commander Commodore Lamine Sanha, the 
public and the press lost interest in the outcome.  The GOGB 
finally lifted the arrest warrant on January 27 and 
guaranteed Gomes' safety, allowing him to return home. 
 
¶3.  (C) The Government continued to function and high level 
leaders resumed their heavy travel schedule.  President 
Vieira went to Libya January 24 for a regional conference and 
Prime Minister Aristides Gomes, Foreign Minister Antonio 
Isaac Monteiro, and Natural Resources Minister Aristides 
Ocante da Silva went to Cuba January 25 to renew a 
cooperation agreement.  There have been no demonstrations or 
strikes since the riots that rocked a Bissau neighborhood 
after Sanha's assassination.  However, Dr. Luis Vaz Martins, 
President of the Human Rights League, told EmbOffs and desk 
officer that his efforts to launch a march in support of 
peace in the days following the riots were shut down due to 
police threats against him. 
 
¶4.  (C) An advisor to the Prime Minister, Mario Filomeno 
Mendes Pereira, said salaries had been paid for all 
non-contract government employees through the end of 
December, but others with friends who are civil servants said 
the Government is still three months in arrears.  Army 
Colonel Arsenio Balde said the military, which is generally 
paid before civil servants, has been paid through the end of 
November.  Balde also said there is unity among the armed 
forces despite efforts by Vieira's political enemies to 
incite internal divisions.  He claimed the riots that 
followed Sanha's assassination as well as propagation of 
false rumors that the military had been deployed in 
neighboring Guinea were designed to force a power struggle in 
the armed forces.  In any case, both efforts at 
disinformation failed. 
 
FALTERING DEMOCRACY 
------------------- 
¶5.  (C) Guinea-Bissau's largest political parties offer few 
solutions at a time when dialog is needed to address the most 
significant challenges, particularly the economy and security 
sector reform.  Both the PAIGC and the Party for Social 
Renewal (PRS) are weakened by divisions within their parties 
and have had little success arriving at a modus vivendi 
between themselves and the Government.  PRS leaders believe 
they still have a claim on the presidency since Kumba Yala's 
2004 ouster in a bloodless coup, but they reiterate that 
theirs is a peaceful party.  Both parties say they are 
already focused on parliamentary elections scheduled for 
spring 2008. 
 
 
DAKAR 00000276  002.10 OF 003 
 
 
¶6.  (C) Neither the opposition parties nor the Government 
(with many party-less ministers after their suspension from 
the PAIGC) seem to operate on democratic principles, and in 
fact, most party leaders had no concept of them.  There are 
no efforts to activate or communicate with a popular base; 
there is no clear policy agenda; deputies are marginalized 
from party headquarters; and there is no discernible effort 
to draft legislation.  The primary purpose of the political 
party is to wield as much power as possible in what is viewed 
as a zero-sum game.  Foreign Minister Monteiro said this is a 
consequence of having no robust private sector in 
Guinea-Bissau.  Once a party is out of government, he 
explained, members have no way to make a living, so they 
dedicate all efforts to regaining power as soon as possible. 
According to Monteiro, government is the only business in 
Bissau. 
 
¶7.  (C) One significant stumbling block to a functioning 
legislature according to the PRS and the National Democratic 
Institute (NDI), the NGO which is implementing an ESF-funded 
project, is Francisco Benante, President of the National 
Popular Assembly (ANP).  Benante is a PAIGC stalwart bent on 
foot-dragging to make Vieira look bad.  Legislation cannot be 
introduced without his approval, and under his stewardship, 
the ANP has produced almost nothing; only six pieces of 
legislation last year and little of relevance. 
 
ECONOMY AND AID 
--------------- 
¶8.  (U) The poverty reduction plan has not been implemented 
because Guinea-Bissau did not receive enough support at the 
international donor's conference in Geneva in November. 
Since the conference, China's Foreign Minister visited the 
country and announced additional support, including the 
construction of a new government palace.  However, the GOGB 
still does not have a budget for the current fiscal year, and 
there is no word if it will be able to cover the budget gap 
and thus qualify for International Monetary Fund lending. 
 
¶9.  (U) The Minister of Agriculture recently signed a 
cooperation agreement with the Chamber of Commerce and 
Industry (CACI), focusing on stimulating cashew production 
and exports.  One of the key parts of the accord is that the 
Government will turn over unused buildings around the country 
for refurbishment that can be used as cashew storage 
warehouses.  Cashew growers said this is one of their most 
pressing needs.  They will use warehouses to keep raw nuts in 
pristine condition for up to three years, relieving the 
pressure to sell in an unfavorable market, as was the case 
this year.  Cashews continue to be exported, at a much 
reduced price.  A boat in Bissau harbor is currently being 
loaded with 13 thousand tons of raw nuts.  Exports have gone 
to India for processing, as in past years, and for the first 
time this year, to Vietnam.  After this shipment, 
Guinea-Bissau will still have 15-20 thousand tons of unsold 
raw nuts. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶10.  (C) Major foreign donors are not necessarily playing a 
constructive role.  China,s significant contribution, which 
comes with no strings attached other than fishing rights, may 
undercut the influence of Western donors who urge adherence 
to human rights and good governance.  For their part, the 
Portuguese Foreign Minister and Secretary of State (Deputy 
Foreign Minister) visited Bissau and attempted to broker a 
solution to the tense stand-off which kept Gomes Jr. in 
hiding at the UN but were unable to get an agreement. 
Minister Amado later told the press that the crisis was 
hurting Guinea-Bissau,s image abroad.  In private, 
Portuguese officials decry the collapse of state institutions 
and growing organized crime, especially narcotics 
trafficking, but they seem unwilling to do much more than 
lament the problems.  As we consider our next steps, we 
believe that FY-2008 assistance should focus on grassroots 
democracy education.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶11.  (U) AF/W Desk Officer Dorsey Lockhart cleared this 
cable. 
 
¶12.  (U) Visit Embassy Dakar's classified website at 
 
DAKAR 00000276  003.3 OF 003 
 
 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar. 
JACOBS