VZCZCXRO6425
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #2893/01 3391004
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051004Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7034
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0211
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0918
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0763
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0396
RUEHTO/AMEMBASSY MAPUTO 0431

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002893 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/AE, INR/AA AND S/P 
ACCRA FOR USAID/WA 
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO 
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINS ECON EAID PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA BISSAU: RETURN OF THE RED HAT CREATES BROAD 
CONCERN 
 
REF: 05 DAKAR 1703 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (C) Former President Kumba Yala, widely described as 
&crazy,8 is creating unease in Bissau as he takes the 
reigns of the second largest party in the National Popular 
Assembly (ANP), the Party for Social Renewal (PRS).  There is 
talk by the largest opposition party, the Party for the 
Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), of 
colluding with the PRS to hold a no confidence vote in the 
Government, based in part on meager donor pledges. 
Meanwhile, the ANP prepares to debate amnesty for military 
crimes, which would include the 2004 murder of then Armed 
Forces Chief Seabra.  There is no budget for the new fiscal 
year which starts next month, and the GOGB is still looking 
for ways to cover the financing gap.  END SUMMARY. 
 
KUMBA,S PARTY DIVIDED 
--------------------- 
¶2.  (C) Former President Kumba Yala returned from 
self-imposed exile in Morocco, still wearing his trademark 
red hat, and was elected head of the PRS at its November 8-12 
Congress in Bissau.  The results are being challenged in 
court by three of the losing candidates, reflecting deep 
divisions within the party.  The legal challenge will not 
likely undo Yala,s election in which he received some 70 
percent of the vote, mostly from Balanta youth among whom he 
remains extremely popular.  Yala has since returned to 
Morocco and even those closest to him in the PRS do not know 
when he will return.  In private, Certorio Biote, one of the 
PRS leaders close to Yala and newly appointed President of 
the Supreme Accounting Court told PolOff he hoped Yala stays 
away until the next presidential election scheduled for 2010 
because his presence is destabilizing for the country.  He, 
like most others PolOff spoke with, described Yala as 
erratic, populist, and a little crazy. 
 
¶3.  (C) IMET graduate Colonel Joao Antonio Gomes, Deputy 
Inspector of Army Forces, echoed Biote,s comments and went 
further.  &All of us are worried,8 he said of the army in 
regard to Kumba Yala,s return.  The concern is not of armed 
insurrection but of the future of Guinea-Bissau should Yala 
be re-elected in the next presidential race.  He said the 
best thing the international community can do for the 
stability of the country is prevent Yala from returning to 
power. 
 
¶4.  (U) Upon his arrival in Bissau, Yala called the 
government of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes illegitimate and 
called for new legislative elections.  He cited a previously 
secret agreement signed in Dakar in June 2005 between him and 
 
SIPDIS 
then presidential candidate Joao Bernardo &Nino8 Vieira in 
the presence of the African Union (Reftel).  In that 
agreement, Yala agreed to support Vieira as a presidential 
candidate after Yala failed to qualify for the second round 
of voting.  In exchange, Vieira would appoint certain Yala 
supporters to governmental posts.  According to the PRS, the 
only appointment Vieira honored from the agreement was Armed 
Forces Chief of Staff General Batista Tagme Na Waie.  Since 
Yala made the agreement public last month, Vieira has made 
some shuffles including replacing Interior Minister Ernesto 
Carvalho with former Justice Minister under Yala, Dionisio 
Kabi of the PRS.  Carvalho was also in the PRS but not a 
militant.  Biote, who was a member of the National Popular 
Assembly (ANP) and recent IVP participant, was appointed as 
part of this reshuffle.  Rumors are circulating in Bissau 
about who may be next to go. 
 
¶5.  (C) Vieira,s actions are in part an attempt to stave off 
a no confidence vote in the ANP, which is in session until 
December 22.  The largest opposition party, the PAIGC, has 
made public overtures to the PRS to join forces and vote out 
the Gomes government.  One wing of the PRS is in favor of 
that option, but another wing prefers to consolidate its 
resources to make a strong showing in the next scheduled 
elections.  Vieira faced a similar challenge getting his 
policy program approved by the same assembly in February and 
succeeded with the help of backroom deals and alleged vote 
 
DAKAR 00002893  002 OF 002 
 
 
buying. 
 
AMNESTY NATIONAL 
---------------- 
¶6.  (U) The most important and contentious legislation before 
the ANP this session is a general amnesty for all military 
crimes committed from 1980 through 2004 including the 
assassination of then Armed Forces Chief of Staff Verissimo 
Correia Seabra.  Since the session opened on November 27, 
Vieira, Gomes and Tagme have spoken out in favor of amnesty 
as a means of creating stability and moving forward with 
security sector reform.  Tagme, who assumed his current 
position after Seabra,s murder, said Guinea-Bissau faced 
&interethnic war8 if people could not forgive each other. 
Yala and Tagme are thought by many to have at least some 
level of knowledge or complicity in the Seabra murder. 
 
¶7.  (U) The International Commission of Transitional Justice 
(ICTJ) visited Bissau at the invitation of UNOGBIS (the UN 
transition office) to help the GOGB address crimes committed 
during wartime.  UNOGBIS Political Officer Linda De Souza 
noted that Guinea-Bissau has a relatively small 
reconciliation to address compared to other countries like 
Angola and Mozambique, but still the GOGB has not pursued 
ICTJ support. 
 
NEW FISCAL YEAR WILL START WITHOUT BUDGET 
----------------------------------------- 
¶8.  (U) Conspicuously missing from the ANP agenda is the FY 
2007 budget which goes into effect January 1.  The Government 
pulled it from consideration, raising concerns that it had 
not yet received pledges of support to close the budget gap 
since the donor,s conference last month. 
 
¶9.  (C) Special Assistant to the Foreign Minister Domingos 
Semedo told PolOff that the U.S. &gave nothing8 to 
Guinea-Bissau at the donor,s round table despite the 
announcement of over USD 3 million in program support in the 
coming year.  He also said the announcement made at the round 
table that the U.S. is re-opening its embassy in Bissau in a 
process which may take approximately three to five years did 
not help the Government at all.  The GOGB, he said, needed 
U.S. permanent presence immediately to show the world that it 
is a viable, stable country.  He asked that the USG 
reconsider its offer and PolOff replied that no new pledges 
could be made as budgets have been set. 
 
¶10.  (U) Semedo expressed the Foreign Minister,s continued 
interest in signing the Tri-partite agreement between 
Guinea-Bissau, the United States, and Brazil.  In a signal 
the Government is starting to respond to criticisms of 
overspending on international travel, he said a signing 
ceremony in Dakar or Bissau would be preferable to the 
previously discussed signing in Washington. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶11.  (C) Uneasiness over the future of the country is almost 
palpable in Bissau since Yala,s return, even in his own 
party.  The poor showing at the donor,s conference has 
weakened the Government in the eyes of opposition parties and 
the general population.  At stake is a year,s worth of hard 
work which produced a poverty reduction plan, security sector 
reform plan, and policy program not to mention tens of 
millions of U.S. dollars in pledges by donors for budgetary 
support.  Vieira is likely working hard behind closed doors 
with PAIGC and PRS leadership to cut deals to keep the 
Government running.  If successful, there will probably be 
more staff and budget changes, possibly including the Prime 
Minister.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶12.  (U) Visit Mission Dakar's classified website at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar. 
JACOBS