VZCZCXRO6008
PP RUEHBI RUEHCI
DE RUEHCI #0556/01 3490840
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 150840Z DEC 06
FM AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1306
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1183
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 0475
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 0473
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0301
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0302
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 0122
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0233
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 1611

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CALCUTTA 000556 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER ECON PREL SOCI IN
SUBJECT: GOVERNANCE, DEVELOPMENT, AND NAXALISM IN BIHAR 
 
REF: CALCUTTA 00442 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: After one year in office, expectations remain 
high for Bihar's Janata Dal United (JDU)-led government.  During 
a December 4-6 visit to Bihar, state officials, journalists, and 
NGOs told Poloff, however, that the new state government has to 
start from scratch after fifteen years of misrule by the 
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) party, and it would take several more 
years for Bihar to realize tangible results.  The new government 
has improved basic law and order in Patna and made some progress 
on targeted areas of economic development and public health. 
Maoists (Naxalites) continue to affect several districts, 
although the tempo and brutality of their operations have 
decreased.  The convergence of the downward trend in Naxalite 
violence and the upward trend in governance is encouraging, and 
the challenge for the new government is whether it can produce 
results fast enough.  Biharis expect Chief Minister Nitish Kumar 
to deliver major improvements in his first term, but he needs to 
establish basic government before he can make progress on 
development.  END SUMMARY. 
 
HIGH EXPECTATIONS, LIMITED RESULTS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
¶2.  (U) Bihar, notorious for its endemic corruption and 
lawlessness, has experienced a slight improvement in law and 
order.  Petty crime and kidnappings, previously widespread, have 
decreased.  The government's police officer rotation program has 
produced positive results, as good officers have been assigned 
to more problematic districts.  The "fear psychosis" in the 
capital, Patna, has eroded, although the degree to which this is 
the case outside the city, where the government has less 
control, is unclear. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The government is focusing its economic development 
efforts on the sugar and maize industries and land reform, but 
it has made little progress on roads, power, and other 
infrastructure.  Bihar is one of India's largest sugarcane 
producers, and the government wants to improve the state's sugar 
processing capacity as most of the raw sugar presently is sent 
to neighboring states for value-added processing and packaging. 
The government is pursuing greater domestic investment, and the 
value of investment proposals has increased significantly since 
the new government assumed power.  A senior state official said 
that Bihar has approved 60 domestic investment proposals, 
primarily in sugar, valued at 250 million rupees, and it is 
hosting an investment conclave in January 2007.  (Note: 1 dollar 
is approximately 45 rupees.  End note.)  However, the basic 
infrastructure to support such investments is still lacking. 
For example, road construction is progressing slowly, and the 
state still buys most of its power from the central government. 
One journalist, summarizing the economic situation, said, "We 
are still struggling with society, and you need society before 
economics."  He explained that the Chief Minister himself had 
said it would take three years before any real improvement was 
visible. 
 
¶4.  (U) A major driver of Bihar's economic condition is the 
dependency on land.  The quantity of land is insufficient to 
support the state's large population of 81 million, even if the 
government could pass land reforms.  Accordingly, seasonal labor 
migration to other states is very high.  Migrant laborers bring 
some income and skills back to the state; the main problem is 
the exodus of Bihari students to other parts of India for higher 
education and employment.  There are few job opportunities for 
these graduates, and most do not return to Bihar or send 
remittances. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Opposition RJD State President AB Siddiqui told Poloff 
that the JDU-led government supports development for the 
wealthiest 10 percent in Bihar, while RJD believes in 
development for the other 90 percent.  He explained that the 
RJD, during its 15-year rule, had to focus on providing the most 
basic services to the rural poor rather than attracting 
investment that would benefit only a small segment of the 
population.  Siddiqui said that his party would be a responsible 
opposition party but would highlight the government's failure to 
implement the sizeable chunk of development funding that the 
state receives from the central government.  He opined that the 
new government should have called an all-party meeting to form a 
consensus on development, but the Chief Minister wants 
 
CALCUTTA 00000556  002 OF 003 
 
 
"development all for himself." 
 
¶6.  (U) The government has made public health a priority. 
According to UNICEF State Representative Dr. Bijaya Rajbhandari, 
the government has actively supported programs to reduce and 
eradicate polio, child malnutrition, and HIV/AIDS.  The risk of 
HIV/AIDS in Bihar is very high because of the large migrant 
labor population, low literacy rate, and limited virus detection 
capability.  According to data from the Bihar State Aids Control 
Society (BSACS), there are 10,000 HIV/AIDS cases in the state, 
with 3,500 new cases in the past two years.  On average, 
approximately 2,000 new cases are identified each year, although 
detection programs are limited and the actual figure probably is 
much higher.  Sentinel programs are present in natal care 
facilities, but only 14 to 17 percent of births occur in these 
facilities.  The HIV/AIDS growth rate is most alarming in North 
Bihar due to its large population of migrant laborers. 
 
JOURNALISTS PROVIDE UNIQUE WINDOW INTO THE NAXALITES 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Journalists and academics, among the few people that 
have direct access to Naxalite camps and cadre, report that 
there are 4,000 to 5,000 "hardcore fighters" spread across Bihar 
and Jharkhand, but the tempo and brutality of Naxalite 
operations in Bihar has decreased in recent years.  Offensive 
operations have moved south to Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh 
because the hilly terrain there is more favorable for insurgent 
activity.  14 of Bihar's 38 districts are affected by Naxalites, 
and Naxalites continue to raise money and periodically attack 
government symbols such as railroad tracks and police stations 
to remind people of their presence.  However, they have stopped 
targeting civilians, and consequently the number of massacres 
has decreased.  The Naxalites typically obtain their arms 
through raids on police armories and from Naxalites in other 
states, but they encourage the use of rudimentary weapons, such 
as sticks, because it demonstrates that even the "common man" is 
capable of resisting.  While our contacts claimed that the 
Naxalites are receiving some sanctuary and arms from the 
Nepalese Maoists, they explained that the Naxalites do not 
support the Nepalese Maoists' decision to enter the government, 
and the Naxalites in Bihar issued a statement saying that the 
Nepalese Maoists had made a mistake. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Although they are not formal participants in the 
political process, the Naxalites wield some influence in state 
politics because they control the votes of villagers in their 
areas of control.  As such, the state government has 
traditionally avoided antagonizing the Naxalites, a policy that 
has been continued by the JDU-led government.  We received mixed 
responses about whether the state or central government could 
resolve the situation militarily if it had the political will. 
Some believed that a military presence alone has an impact, but 
most said a military approach has not and will not work as the 
root of the problem is economic. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Providing a more general overview of Naxalite ideology 
and organization, our contacts explained that the Naxalites in 
Bihar do not seek to join the government but rather thrive in 
the government's absence.  "Their objectives are vague and the 
achievement of their objectives is even vaguer.  The situation 
on the ground is simply conducive to their growth."  Ideological 
indoctrination is minimal, and most armed cadre join because of 
personal grievances.   These recruits typically have been 
oppressed, raped, or humiliated by the moneyed or landed 
classes, and the Naxalites provide them with a means of 
retribution in the form of a weapon, uniform, and monthly salary 
of 1,500 rupees.  The non-armed cadre tend to join for more 
ideological reasons and count among them many well-educated and 
mainstream citizens. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Naxalites are caste-specific and area-specific so the 
movement varies from state to state.  The Naxalites are not 
tightly unified across India, although there is a central 
command and loose organizational structure.  The central 
committee is composed of 45 members from different regions, and 
authority passes from this committee to zonal commanders, area 
commanders, and village commanders.  Bihar, for example, has 
 
CALCUTTA 00000556  003 OF 003 
 
 
three zonal commanders.  Most central committee orders are 
ideological, while operational decisions are taken locally.  The 
movement's leaders tend to come from the more mainstream, 
ideology-driven cadre. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) COMMENT: The Chief Minister's desire to improve 
governance and pursue development is a positive change, and 
coupled with a downward trend in Naxalite violence, the 
situation is encouraging.  The challenge will be whether the 
government can deliver results quickly to meet voters' 
expectations and retain support.  The government is doing some 
of the right things, but the process of correcting Bihar's 
course will take time.  In the meantime, the state will continue 
to lag behind the rest of the country on most indicators.  While 
the decrease in Naxalite attacks bodes well for law and order 
and development, the movement continues to build support in 
rural areas, and the state government's strategy of avoidance 
may backfire if and when the Naxalites choose to become more 
violent. 
JARDINE