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Viewing cable 06BUDAPEST2517, OUTGOING SZDSZ LEADER PREDICTS RENEWED PROTESTS,

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BUDAPEST2517 2006-12-21 14:50 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Budapest
VZCZCXRO1435
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #2517/01 3551450
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211450Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0572
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002517 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2011 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU ECON
SUBJECT: OUTGOING SZDSZ LEADER PREDICTS RENEWED PROTESTS, 
URGES CONTINUED COALITION SOLIDARITY 
 
REF: BUDAPEST 2489 
 
Classified By: POL/C Eric V. Gaudiosi; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (U) Outgoing SZDSZ party president Gabor Kuncze shared 
his thoughts on the future of his own party, the governing 
coalition, and the Gyurcsany government with Ambassador Foley 
at an ambassadors' lunch in his honor December 20. 
 
WHITHER THE SZDSZ ... OR IS THAT WITHER THE SZDSZ? 
 
2. (C) Looking past the SZDSZ's recent electoral losses and 
toward its future, Kuncze commented that the party must 
remains true to its founding principles of economic 
conservatism and social liberalism.  The SZDSZ, he continued, 
should focus on bringing its message of transparency and 
opportunity to new groups without "patronizing them." 
(Comment: It is unclear whether Kuncze is referring to the 
party's need to revamp its intellectual image or to specific 
outreach to groups such as the Roma.  End Comment.) 
 
3.  (C) The upcoming contest to replace Kuncze will help 
determine the party's direction (reftel).  Kuncze did not 
venture a prediction as to the outcome, but described 
Minister of Finance Koka as a "better symbol of renewal" but 
MP Fodor as "more representative of our base." 
 
4.  (C) Turning to the future of the party's long-time 
coalition with the MSZP, Kuncze acknowledged the irony of the 
Alliance between the anti-communist SZDSZ and the "successor 
party."  That said, he bluntly assessed that there are "no 
other options," specifically questioning the ability of the 
center-right MDF to expand its base given competition from 
FIDESZ. 
 
LOYALTY WITHOUT REGARD FOR GYURCSANY; RESPECT WITHOUT TRUST 
FOR ORBAN 
 
5.  (C) Kuncze expressed little personal connection with PM 
Gyurcsany despite his dogged loyalty throughout the past 
months, describing the PM as "a very inexperienced politician 
... "more highly regarded abroad than in Hungary."  Kuncze 
commented that Gyurcsany has "stumbled badly" and "should 
have resigned" given his loss of personal credibility. 
Ultimately, however, Kuncze believes the SZDSZ should "stick 
with Gyurcsany ... as long as he sticks with reform." 
Although he sees the importance of differentiating the SZDSZ 
from the MSZP  by emphasizing "modernization and 
competitiveness," the party should not "distance itself just 
for distance's sake." 
 
6.  (C) Gyurcsany will have enough trouble, Kuncze predicted. 
 He believes "the spring will be as tough as the fall," and 
is convinced Orban is preparing a coordinated series of 
"livelihood demonstrations" once the economic impact of 
austerity measures hits home.  He emphasized that he 
mistrusts Orban but "never underestimates his political 
genius."  He added, however, that Orban will need to be at 
the top of his game to continue FIDESZ's "excommunication" 
policy regarding PM Gyurcsany given the desire of many within 
the party to deal with the government in order to ensure 
access to EU development funds. 
 
7.  (C) Kuncze believes that compromise between the 
government and the opposition remains possible despite the 
polarization caused by Gyurcsany and Orban.  He cited party 
financing, the electoral system, local government, regional 
development, education, taxes, and competitiveness as areas 
where the parties should be able to reach practical 
solutions.  They will have to, he concluded, if Hungary is to 
reach the EU's "first tier." 
 
PREDICTIONS 
 
8.  (C) Kuncze did not discount a leadership change before 
the 2010 elections.  He conceded that SZDSZ is looking for 
replacement candidates who are capable of winning the 2010 
elections.  If Gyurcsany survives the spring, he thought the 
ideal timing for replacement would be 2008, after the reforms 
are completed and in time for the replacement PM to ride the 
post-reform recovery wave into the next elections.  Although 
some in the MSZP may want to change horses, Kuncze emphasized 
that "Gyurcsany was chosen for a reason: he had a better 
chance of beating Orban than the alternatives."  In his view, 
the PM's rivals within the MSZP - Labor Minister Kiss, 
Defense Minister Szekeres, and Parliamentary Speaker Szili - 
are neither as able nor as inclined to continue the process 
of reform. 
 
9.  (C) Comment: Although Kuncze will remain in Parliament, 
 
BUDAPEST 00002517  002 OF 002 
 
 
his departure from the party presidency is being mourned by 
politicians and observers across the political spectrum. 
Though often described as the funniest man in Hungarian 
politics, there is no doubt that Kuncze is a serious player 
whose decision to step down could hurt two parties: his own 
and Gyurcsany's MSZP.  End Comment. 
FOLEY