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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001705 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: POLITICS REMAIN CONTENTIOUS IN KYRGYZSTAN 
 
REF: BISHKEK 1643 
 
BISHKEK 00001705  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Three weeks have passed since President 
Bakiyev and the opposition reached a compromise on a new 
constitution.  The presidential administration continues to 
translate the document from Russian to Kyrgyz, and we expect 
that a final version will be published in early December.  In 
the meantime, the political atmosphere remains contentious, 
as the government and the parliament continue to disagree 
about the balance of powers under the existing governmental 
structure and over implementation of the new constitution. 
President Bakiyev, who has been less than conciliatory toward 
the opposition, plans to address parliament December 4 to 
offer a "constructive message" and to urge the 
parliamentarians to move forward by the end of the year with 
numerous stalled pieces of legislation, some of which are 
needed to implement the new constitution.  There are signs 
that the government is also targeting key opposition members 
for retribution.  In addition, deeper splits are emerging in 
the parliament and even among the members of the opposition 
themselves.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Wasting Time 
------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Three weeks have passed since President Bakiyev and 
the opposition reached a compromise on the text of a new 
constitution, and a final text has yet to be published as the 
presidential administration continues its work on a 
translation from Russian to Kyrgyz.  Some contacts have 
expressed concern that the final Kyrgyz text may not conform 
to what was agreed November 9.  MP Kamchibek Tashiyev, the 
only parliamentarian to vote against the new constitution, 
speculated that the presidential administration was making 
substantive changes before releasing a final text.  Others, 
including State Secretary Madumarov and MP Ishkak Masaliyev, 
however, do not think an Akayev-era "bait-and-switch" is 
likely.  We are hearing from other interlocutors that the 
constitution will be published in early December -- largely 
in the form agreed to on November 9. 
 
¶3. (C) Some opposition members, including Adilet Legal 
Clinic's Cholpon Jakupova and Coalition for Democracy and 
Civil Society's Edil Baisalov have complained that President 
Bakiyev is taking advantage of the delay in publication to 
exercise powers that he would no longer have under the new 
constitution.  In the past month, President Bakiyev has 
continued to make appointments -- the new governor of Chui 
Oblast, for example -- that the opposition maintains are not 
within his powers under the new constitution.  The 
Presidential Administration claims, however, that the law 
which gives this power to the president is in effect until a 
new law implementing the new constitution is passed. 
 
¶4. (C) The opposition has continued to call for Prime 
Minister Kulov to resign, and some opposition MPs have 
discussed plans to remove the prime minister and remake the 
government.  State Secretary Madumarov, however, told us that 
the new constitution does not give the parliament the right 
to nominate a new prime minster and form a new government 
without the approval of the president -- until the election 
of a new parliament based on party lists.  Madumarov even 
suggested that until there are new parliamentary elections 
based on party lists, the current parliament could be 
considered to be working "illegally." 
 
Dissolving Parliament? 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) There is also rampant speculation that the parliament 
may be dissolved by spring.  MP Tashiyev has called for the 
parliament to disband itself and move for new elections, but 
this does not appear to have any support within the 
parliament.  Speaker of Parliament Murat Sultanov said that 
there was no need to dissolve parliament immediately, as the 
new constitution enables the president to play the role of 
 
BISHKEK 00001705  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
arbiter and resolve conflicts, if necessary.  Others believe 
that Bakiyev will move to dissolve parliament, although the 
president cannot do so unilaterally under the new 
constitution.  Prime Minister Kulov told the Ambassador 
November 30 that he did not think that dissolution of 
parliament was a likely scenario, but it was a possibility, 
especially if the parliamentarians do not take action on the 
many laws pending before them.  Deputy Head of the 
Presidential Administration Medet Sadyrkulov admitted that 
there were some within the administration who wanted to 
dissolve the parliament, but he said that they were "in the 
minority." 
 
Bakiyev on Top? 
--------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Some government insiders believe that, contrary to 
popular view, the new constitution actually strengthens the 
presidency.  State Secretary Madumarov asserted that the new 
constitution changes nothing:  the president still has the 
right to appoint and dismiss ministers, and both internal and 
external policies remain completely under the President's 
control.  Prime Minister Kulov said that the president was 
the "big winner."  Presidential powers remain the same, and 
the president still appoints the prime minister.  Therefore, 
under Kyrgyz conditions, "the prime minister will always be 
that person the president needs," according to Kulov.  In 
addition, Kulov said that Bakiyev would benefit from the 
increased role given to political parties in parliament under 
the new constitution.  Political parties in today's 
Kyrgyzstan were weak, he said, but Bakiyev would be able to 
field the strongest party, and even if his party did not win 
the majority, if the majority party fails to form a 
government, he could then ask any party to form a government. 
 
Further Splits? 
--------------- 
 
¶7. (C) MPs are scrambling to align themselves with parties 
and committees that they feel will secure their re-election 
to parliament under new elections, which some believe could 
happen in 2007.  Speaker Sultanov said that partisanship 
would not necessarily weaken the parliament's effectiveness 
as Kyrgyzstan's third branch of power.  Sultanov noted that 
the most powerful bloc in parliament is not the opposition, 
but the thirty so-called "independent" MPs who can swing 
either way and were the deciding factor in approving the new 
constitution.  Sultanov, nevertheless, believed that balance 
within parliament could be achieved, despite pro-opposition 
and pro-Bakiyev MPs appearing to drift further apart. 
 
¶8. (C) There have also been signs of further splits among the 
opposition members, as they squabble over forward strategy. 
In addition, some in the opposition have claimed that the 
government is targeting them in retribution for supporting 
the early-November street protests.  For Reforms leader MP 
Omurbek Babanov told the Ambassador that his bodyguards 
(MVD-supplied, but he pays for them) had been taken away. 
Others, including local NGOs, have complained of increased 
harassment from tax and other officials. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) Following the agreement November 9 on a new 
constitution, the Kyrgyz Government has wasted nearly a month 
preparing a final text.  The government and the parliament 
have made little or no progress in preparing legislation to 
conform existing laws to the new constitution -- and they 
must do so within six months of the constitution coming into 
effect.  The gap between the opposition and the government 
appears to be widening, and there are further splits emerging 
among the already fractious members of the opposition.  Some 
in the government are clearly pushing a hard line against the 
opposition, but it is not clear whether they have Bakiyev's 
ear.  We will be watching closely Bakiyev's address to 
parliament December 4 for signs of conciliation and 
compromise -- or for signs that the battle lines are being 
 
BISHKEK 00001705  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
drawn. 
YOVANOVITCH