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FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
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INFO RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD PRIORITY 0054
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RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 0933
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 1118
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000469 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR CASC ASEC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S CIV-MIL SITUATION AWAITS NEXT STEPS 
 
REF: SUVA 466 (AND PREVIOUS) 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama is returning early to Fiji.  On the way, he has 
had a series of media interviews, reiterating past rhetoric: 
that he does not intend a coup but that bloodshed will come 
if Prime Minister Qarase fails to accede to military demands. 
 Vice President Madreiwiwi is fatalistic, believing all 
concrete RFMF demands are "pretext" for an inevitable coup. 
Qarase is worn down but is still searching for solutions that 
might save the day.  Police Commissioner Hughes reportedly 
believes there will be no coup because the RFMF is not united 
behind their Commander and they have agreed to sideline 
Bainimarama, one way or another.  We note in comment that, 
while Bainimarama may be simply exerting pressure to reform 
the Qarase Government, the VP and PM both seem to believe 
that the Commodore's real intent is to take power.  The 
Hughes scenario would be terrific if, repeat if, the military 
really is on board.  End summary. 
 
Bainimarama on the way back to Fiji 
----------------------------------- 
¶2. (C) It appears RFMF Commander Bainimarama is on his way 
back to Fiji from the Middle East.  He has skipped scheduled 
stops in Kuwait/Iraq and reportedly was attempting to reroute 
to fly Korea Air from Cairo to Seoul to Nadi.  Another report 
suggests the new route might be via London and Los Angeles. 
Reportedly, Bainimarama is deliberately evading Australia, 
fearing he might be arrested there.  Latest reports are that 
he is to arrive Nadi early tomorrow, Friday Nov. 3.  Armed 
RFMF troops reportedly are already in Nadi to escort him to 
Suva.  Police do not intend to interfere. 
 
Thursday calm; Friday is budget day 
----------------------------------- 
¶3. (C) Today (Thurs, Nov. 2) is the sixth anniversary of the 
put-down of an RFMF mutiny that endangered Bainimarama's 
life.  Tomorrow (Fri, Nov. 3) is the opening of Parliament's 
budget session.  There have been rumors that one of the two 
days would be "coup day."  Today has been calm in the 
streets.  Tomorrow may be also, though a rumor is floating 
that the RFMF may be planning a "show of force" march through 
the streets from the main barracks to Parliament House just 
in advance of the budget-session opening.  Acting RFMF 
Commander Capt. (Navy) Teleni has denied there will be any 
march tomorrow. 
 
Media interviews: more troubling rhetoric 
----------------------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Bainimarama's travel schedule has not slowed down 
his interactions with regional media.  Fiji, Australia, and 
New Zealand radio stations have played interviews today in 
which the Commodore denied that he ever set a three-week 
deadline for PM Qarase to reform or resign, and he gave 
assurance that he does not intend a coup.  He added, 
"Dialogue is fine, as long as the Government meets our 
demands."  With that, "Everyone can kiss and make up and live 
happily ever after."  In another interview, he said, "The 
last thing we want to do is have violence, the last thing we 
want to do is have bloodshed, but Qarase is pointing us in 
that direction.  The fact that he does not want to accede to 
our request, the fact that he does not want to resign, and 
his call to the Great Council of Chiefs means to the military 
that he has put us in a situation where there is going to be 
bloodshed and violence."  In yet another interview, 
Bainimarama suggested that, if Qarase refuses to accept RFMF 
advice, including to clean up corruption, to remove Members 
of Parliament who were involved in the 2000 coup, and to 
withdraw controversial bills that "could set Fiji back 
hundreds of years and cause Fijians to hack each other to 
pieces," the PM must resign.  Needless to say, such rhetoric 
keeps people on edge. 
 
Meetings in the works 
--------------------- 
¶5. (C) Acting RFMF Commander Teleni and Land Forces Commander 
Col. Driti are to meet with PM Qarase late this (Thurs) 
afternoon.  The CEO of the PM's office suggested to us the 
RFMF officers signaled some positive news would be 
forthcoming.  The CEO added that the PM intends to meet with 
the Chiefs of Mission for Australia, New Zealand, and the 
U.S., plus the Secretary General of the Pacific Forum, 
 
SUVA 00000469  002 OF 002 
 
 
probably tomorrow (Fri) to give thanks for messages of 
support for rule of law and to provide an update on Fiji's 
situation. 
 
A depressed and fatalistic VP 
----------------------------- 
¶6. (C) Vice President Madreiwiwi told a good source today 
that he accepts the PM's charge that the President and he 
exhibited weakness when they backed down from attempting to 
suspend Bainimarama earlier this week (refs).  The VP feels 
justified, though, in that he "put off the inevitable for a 
short while."  He added that the suspension order on 
Bainimarama will be rescinded.  He suggested fatalistically: 
"que sera sera."  Madreiwiwi reportedly accepts that the 
Great Council of Chiefs (GCC) meeting which PM Qarase has 
called for next week may have on its agenda replacement of 
both the President and VP.  While that move could serve as a 
"pretext" for military intervention, he said, "almost 
anything may be a pretext at this point." 
 
Police Commissioner describes plan to resolve all 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶7. (C) Police Commissioner Hughes, on the other hand, 
described today a plan intended to provide a way out for 
Fiji.  He revealed to a good source that the RFMF's Teleni 
and Driti (see para 5) have agreed with the Government to be 
the conduit of an offer for Bainimarama to become Fiji's High 
Commissioner to London or Wellington, his choice.  Hughes 
reports that if Bainimarama refuses, the RFMF senior 
leadership, now united against any coup, have agreed that 
Bainimarama will appear before the Police to answer charges 
of sedition.  Hughes believes that the RFMF has been shaken 
by the experience of turning aside President Iloilo's 
suspension order of Bainimarama.  The timing was wrong for 
that, with Bainimarama out of the country.  However, once the 
Commodore is back, the above plan is seen as acceptable to 
the military. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8. (C) The people of Fiji and Embassy Suva are taking life 
one day at a time at the moment, awaiting Bainimarama's 
return.  It is certainly possible that all the threats have 
been simply intended to force reforms on the Qarase 
Government.  It is possible that Qarase, with GCC cover, will 
back down on the controversial bills, one of which (the 
so-called reconciliation bill) hasn't even been introduced 
yet in the present Parliament (though a new, and supposedly 
dramatically improved version is on the drawing boards).  The 
other two bills in Bainimarama's sights (both relating to 
ethnic-Fijian land issues) have been introduced, but have 
been taking plenty of flak in committee hearings.  So, if the 
bills are the key to satisfying Bainimarama, a "compromise" 
may be possible, and a resumed, one-sided "dialogue" may 
achieve it. 
 
¶9. (C) However, some, like the VP and PM perceive 
Bainimarama's specific "requests" to be "pretext."  They 
think, regardless of any efforts to find a compromise, the 
Commodore has decided to force a change of government, now or 
soon.  Qarase thinks Bainimarama wants to be dictator; others 
a bit more charitably think he sincerely believes that 
removing Qarase and his "cronies" is essential if Fiji is to 
have a peaceful, prosperous future.  Since the people didn't 
do the job in last May's elections, the RFMF, in that view, 
must do it now, regardless of the consequences for Fiji's 
tourism industry and the negative international reactions 
that would ensue. 
 
¶10. (C) Whether the bulk of the RFMF would actually execute a 
coup order remains unclear.  The scenario Commissioner Hughes 
describes depends on the actual state of affairs within the 
military.  We know Bainimarama has been offered diplomatic 
postings before, including to Wellington, and has turned them 
down.  If, and it is a big if, the troops really are shaken 
by recent events, if they really would just say "no" to a 
coup order, and if they would turn over Bainimarama to 
authorities, that would be a wonderful solution.  We will 
hope for that and keep our powder dry. 
DINGER