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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
06CHIANGMAI193	2006-11-07 10:50	2011-08-30 01:44	UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY	Consulate Chiang Mai

VZCZCXRO1689
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHVC
DE RUEHCHI #0193 3111050
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071050Z NOV 06
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0319
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK PRIORITY 0588
RHHJJPI/PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 0357
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CHIANG MAI 000193 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL TH
SUBJECT: FEARS OF THAKSIN'S RETURN FOCUS ON NORTHERN BORDER 
 
REF: BEIJING 23354 
 
¶1.   (SBU)   Summary.   Northern Thai contacts dismissed as 
groundless rumors that former Prime Minister Thaksin plans to 
re-enter the country from China via Thailand's the northern 
border.   The 3rd Army is seen as a likely source for the widely 
reported stories, either as a way of testing the waters for 
lifting martial law or to justify continuing martial law. 
End summary 
 
¶2.  (U)  Continued speculation about Thaksin's whereabouts and 
supposed plans to return to Thailand took a northern turn this 
week as Thaksin traveled to China Nov. 1, reportedly on private 
business (reftel).   A weekend visit to Chiang Mai by coup 
leader General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin and most of his Council for 
National Security (CNS) colleagues helped fuel rumors that 
something must be afoot in the northern region, considered to be 
home base for Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party. 
 
--- Slow boat from China?--- 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Both a Bangkok Post reporter based in Chiang Mai and 
a former TRT Chiang Rai MP believe the army is behind rumors 
that Thaksin is trying to sneak back into the country via the 
northern border.  By strengthening security measures along the 
Lao and Burma borders, the army gave credence to the idea that 
Thaksin might try to return to Thailand along a route that 
carries a whiff of illegal trafficking through the Golden 
Triangle.   Both sources questioned why Thaksin would go to the 
trouble of traveling overland or via the Mekong River rather 
than flying home, considering that he would end up under 
"special escort" in either case. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  The Post reporter dismissed theories that CNS chief 
Gen Sonthi's weekend visit to Chiang Mai had anything to do with 
Thaksin's whereabouts.   During a Nov. 4 meeting, Gen Sonthi, 
accompanied by Assistant Army Commander-in-Chief and CNS Deputy 
Secretary-General Gen. Saprang Kalayanamitra, said that his 
 
SIPDIS 
visit was aimed at briefing units with border responsibilities, 
notably the Pha Muang Task Force and the 5th Special Forces 
regiment, about broader tasks under the new legal framework for 
the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC).    Under this 
expanded authority and enlarged definition of national security, 
these units' reach will no longer be limited to five kilometers 
along the border but will cover the entire military region. 
 
¶5. (U)  Gen. Sonthi's Chiang Mai stay, which included a golf 
outing, a Buddhist ceremony, a visit to a fortune teller and a 
tour of the newly opened Royal Flora Ratchapruek exposition, was 
also seen as an effort to gauge public sentiment in Thaksin's 
northern stronghold. 
 
---No sign of undercurrents--- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The former MP, who remains a TRT party member, 
interpreted the rumors about Thaksin and reports about 
counter-coup "undercurrents" in the north as excuses for the 
military to extend martial law.    He told ConGen staff that 
neither he nor his community supporters in Chiang Rai had seen 
any sign of so-called undercurrents in Chiang Rai, Thailand's 
northern-most province, or any pro-Thaksin leaflets.   While 
some local politicians have capitalized on the situation to 
attack their opponents as remnant pro-Thaksin or anti-coup 
elements, even this has been on a small scale, he said. 
 
¶6.   (SBU)   Comment:   Fear of Thaksin's return is keeping the 
generals on alert.   As long as the army and the CNS worry that 
Thaksin could outflank them, they are reluctant to give up the 
security blanket of martial law.   Ironically, the image of the 
deposed prime minister as a political Houdini able to escape 
back into Thailand at will also strengthens his profile as a 
powerful presence who could return to a significant role in the 
country's future. 
 
CAMP

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Viewing cable 06CHIANGMAI193, FEARS OF THAKSIN'S RETURN FOCUS ON NORTHERN BORDER