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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001571 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ASEC KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN PROTEST "DE-ESCALATING" 
 
REF: A. BISHKEK 1566 
     ¶B. BISHKEK 1565 
     ¶C. BISHKEK 1554 
     ¶D. BISHKEK 1551 
     ¶E. BISHKEK 1548 
     ¶F. BISHKEK 1537 
     ¶G. STATE 180495 
 
BISHKEK 00001571  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Late on November 7, opposition and 
pro-government parliamentarians reached agreement on a draft 
of a new constitution that reportedly strengthens the role of 
the parliament.  This latest draft follows the submission of 
proposed amendments to the constitution by President Bakiyev 
to Parliament on November 6, and the "adoption" of a new 
constitution by a "constituent assembly" consisting of 
opposition MPs late in the night of November 6-7.  Following 
changes to its procedural rules, Parliament was scheduled to 
begin hearings on this newest draft on November 8. 
 
¶2. (C) Following clashes between opposition and pro-Bakiyev 
demonstrators that required police intervention on November 
7, both groups continued their demonstrations on November 8 
without incident (as of 17:00 local), with approximately 5000 
opposition demonstrators on Ala-too Square, and approximately 
1500 pro-government demonstrators gathered on nearby Old 
Square in front of the Parliament.  The OSCE office in 
Bishkek released a statement offering to help mediate the 
dispute between the government and the opposition, but 
neither government nor opposition has expressed interest in 
the proposal.  With this latest possible compromise over the 
constitution, the current confrontation appears to be 
de-escalating, but with many important issues unresolved, the 
near-term situation remains uncertain.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Agreement on a Draft Constitution? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) The slow pace of constitutional reform has been a 
central issue in the ongoing confrontation between the 
government of President Bakiyev and the political opposition. 
 For over a year, both sides have argued over the form of 
government and the restrictions on power that should be 
embodied in a new constitution (Ref F).  When the opposition 
began its protest November 2, its leaders said that the 
protest would continue until either President Bakiyev went 
forward with constitutional reform or he and his government 
resigned.  On November 6, Bakiyev officially submitted to 
Parliament a draft amending the current constitution, 
increasing some authority of the parliament but largely 
retaining the strong role of the executive (Ref A).  Late on 
November 6, opposition MPs, dissatisfied with the President's 
proposal, called an extraordinary session of Parliament. 
When they failed to maintain a quorum, they declared 
themselves to be a "constituent assembly" and adopted a new 
constitution with a mixed presidential-parliamentary system. 
President Bakiyev denounced the constituent assembly as 
"illegal" and an attempt to grab power, but suggested that a 
reconciliation commission meet to examine and comment on his 
suggested constitutional changes. 
 
¶4. (C) Late on November 7, Speaker of Parliament Sultanov and 
opposition MP Beknazarov announced that a reconciliation 
group had agreed on a new draft constitution (Russian text 
e-mailed to SCA/CEN).  According to Sultanov, this new draft 
proposed a mixed presidential-parliamentary form of 
government, but with greater powers given to the parliament. 
Under this draft, the parliament would consist of 90 members, 
half elected from party lists and half from single-member 
constituencies.  The majority party in parliament would form 
the government, but if no party controlled at least 50 
percent of the seats, the president would form the 
government.  In addition, the SNB, as well as economic and 
 
BISHKEK 00001571  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
energy agencies, would be under the government, not the 
president.  Sultanov said that Parliament would first adopt 
changes to its procedural rules to provide a mechanism for 
adopting a new constitution by the Parliament without 
reference to the Constitutional Court, and then it would 
proceed with consideration of the new draft.  On November 8, 
Parliament passed a bill with the proposed changes to its 
procedural rules, but President Bakiyev has not yet signed 
the bill into law (as of November 8, 17:00 local).  We also 
understand that a reconciliation commission is meeting to 
review the latest draft, raising questions as to whether a 
deal actually was reached. 
 
Opposition and Pro-Government Demonstrators Clash 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5. (C) Mid-morning on November 7, a group of approximately 
300 pro-Bakiyev demonstrators rallied in front of the 
Parliament building on the Old Square (approximately 2 blocks 
from Ala-too Square).  Around 11:15, pro-opposition 
demonstrators began arriving at the Old Square from Ala-too 
Square.  Less than 100 opposition demonstrators confronted 
(verbally) the pro-Bakiyev demonstrators, and police moved in 
quickly to separate the two groups.  The confrontation ended 
without incident. 
 
¶6. (C) By mid-afternoon November 7, the opposition crowd at 
Ala-too Square had grown to 3500-4000.  One of the 
demonstration leaders, MP Babanov, exhorted the crowd to move 
to Old Square to confront the pro-Bakiyev demonstrators.  As 
opposition demonstrators gathered on Old Square, the police 
formed a line between the two groups.  Shouting between the 
groups soon led to rocks and bottles (mostly empty plastic 
bottles) being thrown.  The police then used tear gas and 
pushed the groups farther apart, and after a few minutes, the 
crowd was subdued.  The MVD reported that there were 18 
injuries, but that no firearms had been used. 
 
Protests Continue November 8 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Opposition protesters continued their rally overnight 
November 7-8 at Ala-too Square.  Approximately 200 protesters 
spent the night in the 16 yurts and dozens of tents that have 
been erected there.  One of the demonstration leaders 
expressed his concern to us that a number of "new faces" had 
appeared around Ala-too Square late in the evening, and he 
was worried about a possible confrontation.  The night passed 
without incident.  As of 17:00 November 8, there were 
approximately 5000 opposition protesters on Ala-too Square. 
There were also approximately 1500 pro-Bakiyev demonstrators 
at the Old Square in front of Parliament, and they had set up 
at least 4 yurts.  Both rallies continued to have speakers 
and singers to entertain the crowds.  In addition to the 
usual food and water being distributed, we saw cases of vodka 
being transported to the squares.  The Russian beer company 
"Baltika" was seen setting up a large tent at the site of the 
pro-Bakiyev rally.  Police remain in the area. 
 
¶8. (C) However, at 18:30 on November 8, NGO Coalition leader 
Edil Baisalov told the crowd at the opposition rally that the 
MVD had arrested four individuals at Ala-too Square, and that 
those individuals had told the MVD that they had been hired 
to start a provocation with the opposition.  MVD confirmed to 
us that it had arrested four individuals from Osh with two 
handguns at Ala-too Square.  (Comment:  We are concerned by 
these arrests, as this is the first incident involving 
weapons during this week-long protest, but we think it is too 
soon to draw conclusions about who or what may have been 
behind these individuals.  End Comment.) 
 
¶9. (C) On November 7, there were pro-Bakiyev demonstrations 
in the southern cities of Osh, Jalalabad, and Batken.  As 
many as 7000 reportedly turned out in Osh, and 1500 in both 
 
BISHKEK 00001571  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Jalalabad and Batken for rallies of short duration.  There 
was a small opposition rally in Naryn, and there were both 
pro-government and opposition rallies (600 demonstrators 
each) in Talas.  There have been no reported incidents at 
these demonstrations.  Reports that large numbers of 
pro-Bakiyev demonstrators were being bused into Bishkek from 
the south have not proved true so far.  Additional 
pro-government rallies were planned for November 8. 
 
OSCE Offers Mediation 
--------------------- 
 
¶9. (C) Late on November 7, the OSCE office in Bishkek issued 
a statement (faxed to SCA/CEN) offering to assist in 
facilitating a dialogue between the opposition and government 
over the substance and timetable for a new constitution.  On 
November 8, OSCE representatives told us that neither the 
government nor the opposition had approached the OSCE 
regarding its offer of assistance. 
 
¶10. (C) At a November 8 OSCE meeting of Ambassadors and 
senior representatives of like-minded missions in Bishkek 
(U.S., Germany, Kazakhstan, UN, and OSCE), the group believed 
that the militia's use of tear gas and other actions to 
separate the demonstrators on November 7 had been justified. 
The German Ambassador characterized the police response as 
"proportionate."  The group, however, was also critical of 
the government's handling of the situation, especially in 
allowing the pro-Bakiyev demonstrations to go forward.  The 
Kazakhstani Ambassador said that Bakiyev and his advisors had 
made "lots of mistakes."  He said that if they understand the 
current situation, they will compromise; if they don't, they 
will soon be out of power.  The group agreed that with the 
apparent compromise on the constitution, the situation was 
de-escalating.  However, other important issues -- such as 
the struggle over property with Bakiyev's family -- remain 
unresolved, and will color the political landscape until they 
are resolved. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) Events of the past few days have shown that the 
Bakiyev-Kulov tandem lives on.  Despite rumors that he would 
resign and join the opposition, Kulov clearly demonstrated 
that he was in Bakiyev's camp in a joint press conference 
November 7.  Bakiyev owes Kulov a great debt, because if 
Kulov had left the tandem, the whole political dynamic would 
have changed to Bakiyev's detriment.  Kulov appears to be 
collecting on this debt already with the appointment of his 
close ally Omurbek Suvanaliyev as Interior Minister, putting 
the MVD under Kulov's influence, if not outright control. 
 
¶12. (C) Both the government and the opposition appear to have 
stepped back from the brink they reached on November 7. 
High-level negotiations over a constitutional draft continue, 
and confrontation between the demonstrators has been avoided 
for the last 24 hours.  The possible compromise over the 
constitution, if successful, will remove the most salient 
grievance of the opposition and will ease tensions on the 
street.  However, other contentious issues -- such as 
Bakiyev's nepotism, efforts to monopolize lucrative 
businesses, and his harassment of opposition leaders -- will 
remain to spark friction between the President and the 
opposition.  We concur with our colleagues that both the 
political and security pictures have improved, but note that 
with large numbers of pro- and anti-Bakiyev demonstrators 
still on the street, the situation remains fluid and could 
change quickly. 
YOVANOVITCH