VZCZCXRO1082
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHBP #1361/01 3330936
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 290936Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAMAKO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6527
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAMAKO 001361 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2016 
TAGS: PREL PINR PINS PGOV ML
SUBJECT: CALCULATIONS SHIFT AS FORMER MINISTER OF DEFENSE 
ENTERS PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
REF: A. BAMAKO 01005 
 
     ¶B. BAMAKO 01154 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Aaron Sampson for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.(C)  Summary:  On November 25 the Alliance for Democracy in 
Mali's (ADEMA) vice-president and former Minister of Defense, 
Soumeylou Boubey Maiga, defied his party's leadership and 
declared himself "ready" to challenge President Amadou 
Toumani Toure (ATT) for the presidency, albeit stopping short 
of officially launching his candidacy.  ADEMA has already 
endorsed the re-election bid of ATT.  Maiga's speech before a 
rally of more than a thousand would-be supporters changed the 
dynamics of what had been a two-man race between ATT and 
National Assembly president Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK). 
Maiga is well-known in Mali but lacks the stature of IBK or 
ATT.  Recent conversations with Maiga and others suggest he 
is aiming not for first place in the April 2007 elections but 
third and the power to influence the results of a second 
round run-off between IBK and ATT.  Maiga, however, may have 
paved the way for other potential presidential candidates. 
Following his announcement, the Union for Republic and 
Democracy (URD) - which is lead by Soumaila Cisse, who lost 
to ATT in the second round of the 2002 presidential election 
- appeared poised to re-visit its decision to join with ADEMA 
in support of ATT.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Mali's Largest Party Splits Over Support for ATT 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2.(C)  On November 25 former Minister of Defense and ADEMA 
vice-president, Soumeylou Boubey Maiga, told over a thousand 
supporters that he was "ready" to run for president in 2007. 
Maiga stopped short of officially launching his presidential 
campaign - neither ATT nor IBK have officially announced 
either - but he left no doubt of his intention to respond 
positively to the "demands" of his supporters.  The 
meticulously scripted rally appeared to have been patterned 
after a U.S. presidential convention, complete with character 
"testimonies" from influential supporters and a biographical 
film projected on to giant television screens rented for the 
occasion.  Unable to run under the banner of his party - 
which has already endorsed ATT's bid for re-election - Maiga 
created a new political grouping, "Convergence 2007."  Maiga 
intends to retain his role as ADEMA's vice president, but 
will be unable to use the USD 618,000 in public campaign 
finance funds recently allotted to ADEMA by the GOM (septel). 
 Maiga told the Embassy he was banking on support from abroad 
to finance the CFA 10 million (approximately USD 20,000) fee 
for presidential candidates and pay campaign expenses.  Other 
Embassy contacts indicate that Libya may be one of Maiga's 
potential financial supporters.  When asked, Maiga himself 
only went so far as to say Libya was among many potential 
financial supporters. 
 
3.(C)  Maiga's announcement threw ADEMA into disarray. 
ADEMA's president, Diouncounda Traore, has been working with 
ATT and the URD since September on a "campaign platform" 
designed to catapult ATT to victory in 2007.  According to 
reports, ATT promised ADEMA and the URD several Ministerial 
posts in return for their support (ref A).  Worried that a 
renegade presidential candidacy from within ADEMA's ranks 
could jeopardize this agreement, Traore sought to dissuade 
party members from attending Maiga's rally, even releasing a 
letter instructing the party faithful "to remain vigilant and 
avoid embarking on an adventure that has no future." 
 
4.(C)  ADEMA is no stranger to internal division.  Mali's 
other two major political groupings, the RPM and URD, were 
both founded by dissident ADEMA members during the 2002 
presidential campaign.  Maiga has repeatedly told the Embassy 
that by running for president, he hopes to reinvigorate a 
party that has lost its way under the leadership of 
Diouncounda Traore. 
 
------------------------- 
Political Re-Calculations 
------------------------- 
 
5.(C)  Maiga's decision forced Mali's other main parties, the 
RPM and URD, to make some rapid political re-calculations. 
Although few in Bamako (including Maiga himself) believe 
Maiga is likely to win the presidency, his candidacy 
increases the likelihood of a second round run-off.  The URD 
may have telegraphed its interpretation of events by 
canceling the unveiling of the joint ADEMA-URD platform, 
drafted in conjunction with ATT, that was scheduled for 
November 26.  URD leaders claimed the November 26 meeting was 
postponed in order to give party members a chance to vote on 
 
BAMAKO 00001361  002 OF 003 
 
 
the proposed text of the draft platform during the URD's 
national convention scheduled for early December.  It 
remained unclear why the URD decided to change course and 
submit the platform to its national convention at the last 
moment.  Some speculated that Maiga's entry into the race may 
have led URD leader Soumaila Cisse to re-visit his decision 
to position himself for a subsequent presidential run in 2012 
by backing ATT in 2007. 
 
6.(C)  RPM secretary general Bocar Treta described Maiga's 
presidential run, and the chaos it has caused within ADEMA, 
as "an excellent thing" for the RPM.  Treta said the RPM 
expected its candidate, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, to pick up a 
number of disgruntled ADEMA supporters.  The RPM, said Treta, 
is in the process of rallying discontented sections of Malian 
society.  This includes members of ADEMA and the URD who are 
unhappy with the direction of the country under ATT but wary 
about wasting their vote on a long-shot candidate like Maiga. 
 Treta also confirmed reports that the RPM was courting 
Mali's so-called "seven billionaires."  This group of 
businessmen, who constitute some of ATT's most important 
financial backers, apparently fell out with ATT in October 
following the controversial election of a new Chamber of 
Commerce president in Bamako (septel).  Treta said the RPM's 
approach toward the seven billionaires was further 
strengthened during ATT's recent trip to China.  According to 
Treta, ATT asked the re-elected Chamber of Commerce 
president, Jamille Bittar, to provide a list of key Malian 
businessmen with contacts in China who could accompany ATT to 
the recent summit of African leaders.  Due to the continuing 
turmoil within the Chamber of Commerce, Bittar was unable to 
provide a list.  As a result, no Malian business leaders 
traveled with ATT.  The business community, said Treta, 
therefore lost business opportunities, and consequently 
confidence, in ATT. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
RPM Loses a Minister, Refuses to Recognize CENI 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
7.(C)  On November 17 the Minister of Health, Zenaib Mint 
Youba Maiga, formally resigned from the RPM.  This left the 
RPM with only the Ministry of Environment in ATT's 
government.  Youba Maiga had long since stopped attending 
party meetings and her resignation announcement elicited 
cheering at an assembly of RPM members.  Treta said the 
resignation of "that woman" showed that "ATT is with his 
Ministers while the RPM is with the people."  Treta said the 
RPM will decide in January whether it is in the party's 
interest for the Minister of Environment, who remains a 
faithful member of the party, to remain within ATT's 
government. 
 
8.(C)  Treta confirmed that the RPM will pursue its legal 
case seeking the dissolution of Mali's Independent National 
Electoral Commission (CENI), which was originally formed 
without representation from the RPM (ref B).  "We will not 
participate in the CENI," said Treta, "but we won't rest with 
our arms crossed either."  Many have speculated that the RPM 
is planning on using the GOM's failure to incorporate RPM 
representatives into the CENI as grounds for contesting the 
election in the event of an IBK loss. 
 
----------------------------- 
Comment: Still a Two Man Race 
----------------------------- 
 
9.(C)  Soumeylou Boubey Maiga is well-known in Mali but lacks 
the political stature of IBK and ATT.  His failure to win 
over the ADEMA leadership and thus run under the familiar 
ADEMA colors and bumble-bee logo (an important factor when 
considering Mali's many illiterate voters) presents Maiga 
with a serious handicap.  He may draw enough attention and 
votes, however, to considerably shake up what was previously 
a rather straight-forward race between IBK and ATT.  Maiga 
appears to be banking on the adage that "it is better to 
finish third than second" and position himself as a potential 
"king-maker" with enough votes to throw the election toward 
one man or another following the election's first round.  In 
a recent conversation with the Embassy, Maiga did not rule 
out an eventual second round endorsement of ATT, despite his 
increasingly harsh criticisms of ATT's presidency.  RPM 
leaders also indicated that while they regarded Maiga's 
candidacy as a positive development for IBK, there was no way 
to predict whom Maiga would support should he fail to 
progress beyond the first round.  There are a number of other 
well-known political figures in Mali who have, up until this 
point, been content to remain on the sidelines of the 2007 
election and position themselves instead for the campaign of 
¶2012.  Maiga's announcement may open the way for those who 
were hesitant to get mixed up in a battle between Mali's two 
 
BAMAKO 00001361  003 OF 003 
 
 
political heavyweights to also enter the presidential race. 
McCulley