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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002870 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NOOSE TIGHTENS AROUND PLATEAU STATE GOVERNOR 
JOSHUA DARIYE 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 2766 
 
     ¶B. ABUJA 2817 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b 
and d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  A visit by PolOff and PolFSN October 29-31 
suggests that the political situation in Plateau State is 
growing increasingly difficult for Governor Joshua Dariye.  A 
close reading of the Nigerian constitution reveals that even 
a truncated state assembly of 8 members can vote to remove 
him.  While he might previously have had the opportunity to 
negotiate a "soft landing" that would keep him out of jail 
after his removal from office, that moment appears to have 
passed.  He is increasingly unpopular in his state, with what 
support he does draw coming from opposition to President 
Obasanjo rather than active support for him.  While it is 
possible that communal violence would follow his removal from 
office, the more likely scenario is one of relative calm. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) A close reading of the Nigerian constitution reveals 
that even a truncated state assembly of 8 members can vote to 
remove Dariye from office.  Reftels reported that 14 members 
of the state house of assembly were removed for switching 
parties, and 2 more were removed for ethical questions. 
However, attorneys Samaila Mohammed and Ahmed Garba showed 
EmbOffs the constitutional reasoning which would allow the 8 
remaining members to vote for impeachment.  Section 109(1)(g) 
of the 1999 Constitution says that a person who is elected to 
a state House of Assembly as the candidate of one political 
party who subsequently leaves that party shall have vacated 
his seat.  However, in other instances INEC has endorsed 
party-switching and in several cases argued the candidate's 
primacy over the party at election tribunals.  As INEC is 
prone to do, however, it also argued the opposite at other 
tribunals. 
 
¶3.  (C) Section 96 of the 1999 Constitution also says that 
"The quorum of a House of Assembly shall be one-third of all 
the members of the House,"  signifying that the 8 remaining 
members would be the minimum required to conduct business. 
Those 8 members met and suspended their own rules allowing 
only six members to act on impeachment.  While the law, even 
being implemented selectively, would appear to permit this 
action, the political appropriateness of the idea remains in 
question (see comment). 
 
¶4.  (C) While Dariye might previously have had the 
opportunity to negotiate a "soft landing" that would keep him 
out of jail after his removal from office, that moment 
appears to have passed.  Reverend Yakuba Pam, local leader of 
the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and a close 
associate of Dariye, reports that he was once told by those 
close to Obasanjo to pass word to Dariye that he would be 
given another government post such as senator or ambassador 
if he were to resign as governor.  (Note: We believe Pam is 
exaggerating the situation.  While we do believe some sort of 
offer was made, it is unlikely that he would be allowed to 
swap the governorship for a seat in the Senate.  End Note.) 
Pam says that Dariye rejected the offer and that it is no 
longer on the table.  PDP state secretary Sale Bayari, PDP 
gubernatorial candidate Jimmy Cheto, and other knowledgeable 
sources all report that Dariye was offered various deals 
which would allow him to resign and minimize or avoid a jail 
sentence.  (Note: This is significant, because governors lose 
their criminal immunity when they leave office.  End Note.) 
He turned down those opportunities, and all sources now 
indicate that the door has all but closed on any deal.  The 
feeling is that impeachment is within reach and no deal is 
necessary. 
 
¶5.  (C) Dariye is increasingly unpopular in his state, with 
what support he does draw coming from opposition to President 
Obasanjo rather than active support for the governor.  Even 
those with whom EmbOffs spoke who opposed impeachment 
acknowledged that Dariye jumped bail in London, has stolen a 
vast sum of money, and has not produced meaningful results 
for his state.  Some reports indicate that local teachers are 
on strike because they have not been paid their salaries, and 
many unconfirmed stories blame Dariye for stealing money that 
should have been spent on civic improvements.  Even if 
untrue, the repetition of these stories by the people with 
whom we spoke indicates that there is no groundswell of 
support for Dariye.  While some want him to stay in office 
because of their opposition to Obasanjo, we were unable to 
find anyone who wanted him to stay because they believe he is 
a good governor.  This will make it difficult for him to 
 
ABUJA 00002870  002 OF 002 
 
 
motivate a groundswell of support to keep him in office. 
 
¶6.  (C) While it is possible that communal violence would 
follow Dariye's removal from office, the more likely scenario 
is one of relative calm.  Some speculate that once Dariye 
accepts the inevitability of his removal from office he will 
intentionally spur violence.  This would cause a state of 
emergency during which he would likely be suspended. 
However, he would retain his immunity while suspended. 
Additionally, the confusion might allow him some avenue for 
holding on to power.  Local PDP leaders raised the 
possibility that Dariye is using state funds to secure 
private "militias," similar to normal politics in the Delta 
region.  Sale Bayari told us Dariye sent PDP elder Solomon 
Lar to churches on Sunday, October 22 to stir up religious 
division.  This division is based on the fact that Deputy 
Senate President Mantu, Dariye's perceived political 
opponent, is Muslim.  (Note: PDP officials say they do not 
know whether Mantu will run for Senate again, believing he 
instead intends to seek higher office such as the Vice 
Presidency.  He has yet to pick up a candidate application, 
but has instructed some of his close friends to obtain 
applications on their own behalf.  End Note.) 
 
¶7.  (C) While communal violence is certainly possible, we 
believe it is more likely that the state will remain 
relatively calm.  In spite of limited violence reported in 
reftels and Lar's reported attempts to stir division, the 
state is currently calm.  There is a visible security 
presence in the state which several observers told us has 
recently been sent in to forestall any violence.  This does 
not mean that there will be no violence at all, but rather 
that any outbreaks of violence could be contained.  Another 
factor limiting violence is that many of Dariye's 
constituents dislike him, and his removal would not offend 
them.  Finally, while we believe the reports of "militias" to 
be exaggerated, we believe he does have "area boys" likely 
paid from official funds.  These people would be there to 
stir up trouble.  However, once Dariye is removed from office 
the official funds he likely uses as a primary source for 
securing their services will no longer be available to him. 
Since the services of the "area boys" are secured through 
cash rather than loyalty, Dariye's inability to pay them 
would mean the troublemakers would remain quiet. 
 
¶8.  (C) COMMENT.  One political issue remains, however, and 
that is the propriety of removing the 14 members from office. 
 To date, others who have switched parties have been allowed 
to continue.  Case in point is the entire state apparatus of 
Jigawa state which switched from ANPP to PDP.  As long as the 
judiciary, national assembly and state structures are unable 
to operate independently, this arbitrary application of 
regulations has the potential to fan the discontent 
smoldering throughout the country.  While the removal of 
those legislators could theoretically be legal, it was 
neither politically advisable nor consistent with the actions 
taken in Jigawa State.  END COMMENT. 
CAMPBELL