VZCZCXRO3787
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRA #0820 2830718
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 100718Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3412
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIGA 000820 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2016 
TAGS: PREL ECON GE RU LG
SUBJECT: LATVIA AND RUSSIA TO SIGN COOPERATION AGREEMENTS 
OCTOBER 13 
 
REF: RIGA 481 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey.  Reason: 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Latvian Economics Minister Stokenbergs 
will travel to Moscow October 13 to sign bilateral agreements 
on economic cooperation and establishing an intergovernmental 
commission to manage the bilateral relationship.  The signing 
of these agreements represents the end of several months of 
intensive, behind the scenes negotiations with the assistance 
of outside parties, including the Russian patriarch and the 
German Chancellor.  With Latvian PM Kalvitis likely to 
continue in office following October 7 elections, the 
question now will be whether the two countries can move to 
sign the long-stalled border treaty.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The GOL quietly announced October 6 that Economics 
Minister Stokenbergs will travel to Moscow to sign two 
bilateral agreements.  The first would establish an 
intergovernmental commission between the two countries to 
manage the overall bilateral relationship.  The second is an 
agreement on economic cooperation.  The Russian signatory 
will be Economic/Trade Minister Gref.  We understand that, 
neither agreement requires parliamentary approval in either 
country and both will come in to force upon signature. 
 
¶3. (C/NF) The signing of these two agreements has been a key 
initiative of PM Kalvitis since his June meetings with 
Russian PM Fradkov and President Putin (reftel).  The 
Russians have moved forward at varying speeds since then to 
ratify the agreements.  The Latvians have used two outside 
sources along the way to prod the GOR along.  The first is 
Russian Patriarch Alexis whose May visit to Riga is viewed by 
the Latvians as opening the way to the June meetings.  The 
Latvians have used the patriarch along the way to keep Moscow 
focused on this. 
 
¶4. (C/NF) The other key source of support for this has been 
Germany, and particularly Chancellor Merkel.  Her foreign 
policy advisor, Heusgen, and PM Kalvitis' foreign policy 
advisor, Peteris Ustubs, served together in Brussels and 
remain friends.  They have worked closely together on this, 
but Merkel seems to have taken a personal interest in the 
issue, raising it with Putin on a number of occasions. 
Heusgen also pressed Putin's foreign policy advisor Prikhodko 
several times on this issue.  The Latvians and Germans both 
wanted these agreements signed prior to the EU informal 
dinner with Putin October 20. 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Comment: In the difficult Latvian/Russian 
relationship, small steps matter and these two agreements, 
while not earth-shattering in substance, are significant in 
that they have been pending for several years and provide 
building blocks for organizing more normal bilateral 
relationships.  Most of the credit here lies with the PM and 
Ustubs, who really drove the process within the GOL and with 
key partners like Germany.  With Kalvitis likely to stay as 
PM, the GOL is likely to focus on the long stalled border 
treaty as the next step.  If both sides can control their 
worst impulses to stick it to the other on that agreement and 
manage get it signed, it would be a significant step forward 
in the bilateral relationship. 
BAILEY