VZCZCXRO3900
PP RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0181 2920944
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 190944Z OCT 06
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0306
INFO RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0004
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK PRIORITY 0578
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 0031
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0001
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU PRIORITY 0039
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 0344
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0009

UNCLAS CHIANG MAI 000181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREF PINS TH BM
SUBJECT: CONCERNS OVER SPDC OFFENSIVE IN KAREN STATE 
 
REF: A) RANGOON 1536 B) CHIANG MAI 113 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:   According to border sources, the Burmese 
army offensive in Karen State that persisted throughout the 
rainy season (ref b) is now intensifying, despite continued 
heavy rains, and appears aimed at crushing the Karen resistance. 
  Meanwhile, the Karen National Union (KNU) is considering 
renewed ceasefire talks with the State Peace and Development 
Council (SPDC).  Exile groups along the Thai border have resumed 
normal movement after keeping a lower profile following the 
Sept. 19 coup.   The Chinese are showing increased interest in 
talking with anti-SPDC groups.  End summary. 
 
¶2.   (SBU)  In an Oct. 16 meeting with Consulate officers, KNU 
and other ethnic exiles seconded recent stories of a sustained 
effort by the SPDC to wear down Karen and other ethnic 
resistance, destabilizing areas of northern Karen state and 
causing hardships for Karen villagers and internally displaced 
persons (IDPs).   Checks with UNHCR, National Intelligence 
Agency and Ministry of Interior offices in Mae Hong Son, Mae 
Sariang and Sop Moei show a significant increase in IDPs at the 
border, around 3,000 vs. half that number earlier this year; a 
deterioration in the security situation would likely step up the 
flow of refugees on this side. 
 
¶3.  (U)  According to reports from the Free Burma Rangers, a 
northern Thailand-based group that provides humanitarian aid to 
IDPs, SPDC forces are re-supplying at least one front-line unit 
rather than waiting for the end of the rainy season to continue 
their offensive. With many roads impassable, this unit is also 
increasing its use of forced porters to move supplies, the 
organization said. 
¶4.   (SBU)  KNU Foreign Secretary David Taw acknowledged to 
ConOffs that the SPDC offensive is hitting the Karen hard, but, 
citing defectors, claimed that SPDC forces are hurting from the 
regime's inability to supply and reinforce its own troops near 
the border.  Taw admitted, however, that the Karen forces have 
little to offer as encouragement to defectors and that the SPDC 
aims to divide the resistance by sending more troops to the 
northern areas while leaving the southern parts unharmed. 
¶5.  (SBU)  Taw confirmed that KNU representatives met with SPDC 
Chief of Military Security Affairs Maj. Gen.Ye Myint in Rangoon 
on Oct. 5 (ref a).   Referring to the Dec. 2003 "gentleman's 
agreement" between the KNU and former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, 
Ye Myint reportedly said, "We don't use that term any more". 
The KNU Central Committee is now considering Ye Myint's 
invitation to send a delegation in two weeks for discussions 
about a possible ceasefire and other issues.   "This time we 
will chose our own delegation," Taw said, explaining with 
evident awkwardness that maverick Pastor Timothy Laklem and two 
others had appeared unexpectedly at the talks.   "We know they 
would like to split the KNU," he said, referring to allegations 
that the SPDC has engaged in separate conversations with 
elements of the KNU, including Pastor Timothy, and the Karen 
National Liberation Army (KNLA). 
 
¶6.   (SBU) Asked about the effects of the Sept. 19 coup in 
Thailand on the border situation, Taw noted that KNU operations 
were largely unaffected.  Thai authorities warned exile leaders 
not to travel and closed the Salween River for two weeks, but 
Taw reported that the situation is now back to normal.  "Bangkok 
is busy" with other issues, he explained, and "people at the 
border are still friendly" as long as the exile groups don't do 
anything to attract undue attention. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Brussels-based Harn Yawnghwe, Director of the 
European Office for the Development of Democracy in Burma, 
described holding a half dozen meetings with Chinese officials 
in Kunming and Beijing, noting "they never listened to us" 
before.  In line with similar reports from the National Council 
of the Union of Burma (NCUB), Yawnghwe attributed this new 
attentiveness to China's realization after Khin Nyunt's arrest 
that it needed to broaden its channels of communication on Burma. 
 
CAMP