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P 311013Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BISHKEK
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INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1779
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE PRIORITY 1305
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO BRUSSELS BE PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 2188
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1576
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001535 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PHUM KG
SUBJECT: SOUTHERNERS UNLIKELY TO PARTICIPATE IN BISHKEK 
DEMONSTRATION NOVEMBER 2 
 
BISHKEK 00001535  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARIE L. YOVANOVITCH, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: While traveling in Osh October 26-28 for a 
USAID-supported agricultural exposition and PAS-funded 
American rodeo event, the Ambassador met with religious 
leaders, political activists and university students about 
the overall situation in southern Kyrgyzstan and their 
opinions about the upcoming political rally to be held in 
Bishkek.  On the subject of November 2, most believed that 
southerners would not turn out for the demonstration; some 
feared that the event in Bishkek would spiral out of control, 
resulting in violence similar to the events of March 2005. 
The population in the south seems to be less politically 
charged and cautiously awaits the outcome of the planned 
activities in the north. In all meetings including an 
interview with Osh TV, Ambassador took the opportunity to 
state the U.S. position that the November 2 demonstration is 
a Kyrgyz matter, but that both sides should operate in a 
peaceful, legal and constitutional manner. END SUMMARY. 
 
UZBEK LEADER URGES U.S. MEDIATION 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) During lunch with the Ambassador, Chairman of the 
International Center of Islamic Cooperation Sadykjan Kamalov 
expressed his concern regarding the increase in violent 
attacks on politicians and, now, religious leaders since 
President Bakiyev assumed power.  When asked about the case 
of his slain brother, Muhammadrafiq Kamalov, he stated that 
the authorities have yet to share any new information but he 
is patiently waiting for results from their investigation. 
He also claimed that certain individuals wanted him to blame 
the Bakiyev regime publicly for his brother's death. 
However, he claimed to have refused to react to such 
provocation.  Kamalov shared his fears, together with those 
of the wider community, that the tensions between the 
opposition and the president will lead to further violence, 
possibly during the upcoming rally in Bishkek on November 2. 
 
¶3. (C) Kamalov also felt that if the tense situation were to 
result in violence, then accusations that the USG financed 
the upheaval would soon follow, especially if the USG remains 
silent and refuses to choose sides.  Convinced that both 
sides of the political struggle respected the views of the 
U.S. Embassy and wanted U.S. mediation, Kamalov suggested 
that the Ambassador preside over a dialogue between the 
opposition and Bakiyev.  Kamalov assured the Ambassador that 
the people of Kyrgyzstan need the USG's presence as a balance 
to Russian intervention.  Ambassador told Kamalov that she 
always appreciates his advice, but that she does not see an 
opening for U.S. mediation nor has either side invited her to 
do so.  In this meeting and all her other meetings, she noted 
the U.S. position that the demonstration is an internal 
matter, but it is important for all sides to act peacefully, 
legally and in accordance with the Kyrgyz constitution. 
 
OSH STUDENTS NOT PLANNING TO ATTEND DEMONSTRATION 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4. (C) Students of Osh State University met with the 
Ambassador and shared their knowledge of the upcoming 
November 2 rally but expressed mixed feelings about 
participating, and clearly few, if any, were planning to 
attend.  Students claimed that opposition party members 
requested that they come to local rallies to show support. 
Some students argued that these events were important to 
guard the balance between political groups.  Others felt that 
such rallies were obstacles to the country's development and 
would lead to further instability.  Overall, the youths were 
not enthusiastic about the political wrangling in Bishkek, 
but claimed to be watching closely for concrete action as a 
result of the event. 
 
POLITICAL PARTIES WON'T TURN OUT EITHER 
 
BISHKEK 00001535  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) The Ambassador chaired a roundtable discussion with 
Osh representatives of various political parties, both 
pro-government and opposition.  The discussion quickly turned 
into a show of both sides bickering about the roles of each 
other's parties and their effectiveness in shaping the 
fledgling democratic government.  When asked about the 
upcoming rally in Bishkek, many agreed that as much as 
two-thirds of the population in the south may be unaware of 
such political activity.  Those aware of the situation, one 
claimed, fear a sequel to last year's violent uprising. 
Opposition party members claim that most do not have access 
to independent media or the Internet, making it difficult to 
understand both sides of the argument.  Another claimed that 
the population is tired of politics and simply wanted peace; 
he pointed out that Bakiyev has strong support in the south 
and that he is winning the media war, utilizing 
government-owned newspapers and television stations to 
promote his position.  Some pro-government party members 
believed that a few political groups desire destabilization 
in order to take advantage of a chaotic situation and seize 
power.  The group concluded that few from the south would 
participate in the November 2 demonstration and that there 
would not even be a parallel event in Osh, as there was 
during the spring demonstrations. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) The mood of the population in Osh is clearly less 
politically charged than that of their neighbors to the 
north, and it still appears to be a Bakiyev stronghold. Osh 
Governor Jantoro Satybaldiyev, formerly of the opposition 
until his May appointment, told the Ambassador that if 75% of 
the south previously supported the President, now 90% 
supports southerner Bakiyev.  He stated that southerners see 
the attempts to pressure Bakiyev to resign as northerners 
unwilling to allow Bakiyev to finish his term, unlike 
northerner Akayev who enjoyed fifteen years in power.  For 
those tracking the upcoming rally, concern about possible 
violence outweighs any excitement about possible political 
change.  The population in the south seems to have adopted a 
cautious "wait and see" approach to the planned rally, 
although few will participate from Osh and most interlocutors 
indicated they expected the south to participate in force 
only from the home provinces of Deputies and opposition 
leaders Beknazarov and Tekebayev.  END COMMENT. 
 
YOVANOVITCH